The Study On Glacier Fluctuation,Climate And Runoff Change In Qitai County In Xinjiang

On basis of remote sensing images,map,meteorological and hydrological data, this article analyzed the spatial pattern, length and area change of glacier in different time in QiTai County using remote sensing and geographic information system technology. The basic features of climate change since recent 42 years were analyzed by use of methods of linear tendency function and Mann-Kendall test. This paper also studied the distribution and variation characteristics over years of runoff, using variance analysis,regression analysis and Mann-Kendall test. Based on these, the responses of glacier fluctuation and runoff to climate change, and the glacier fluctuation's influence on runoff were discussed. The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The glacier presented obvious flinching and the glacier in different basin changed differently. (2) The climate in this area since recent 42 years has been becoming warm and moist; the characteristics of seasonal and generational change of temperature and precipitation were obvious. (3) The intra-annual distribution of runoff of Kaiken River was comparatively even. The main supply source of runoff was rainwater, next was the melts of glacier and snow covers (seasonal snow). The runoff didn't have sudden mutation but had significant periodicity. (4) The glacier change had good response to temperature and glacier's sensitivity to temperature was higher than that to precipitation. The influence of precipitation on runoff was stronger than that of temperature and precipitation had obvious influence on runoff, but glacier change had remarkable influence on runoff in some individual unusual years.