Correlation Analysis Of Mass Balance And Runoff Change Of No.1 Glacier In Urumqi River Source

Glacier is an important indicator of climate change,glacier mass balance and glacier runoff are important links of energy cycle and water cycle in glacier area.In recent decades,with the rise of global temperature,most glaciers in the world have been in a state of long-term retreat,glacier mass continues to be in deficit trend,and glacier runoff continues to accumulate,thus affecting the water cycle process.Glacier No.1 in the Urumqi River source is the one with the longest observation time in our country.It is an important source of water resource supply in the arid area in northwest of our country with a strong representation.Based on the data of glacier mass balance and runoff at different altitude intervals of Glacier No.1 in the Urumqi River Source from 1989 to2017,Fisher optimal segmentation method and quantile regression method were used to analyze the index characteristics of Glacier No.1 in the Urumqi River source to understand its change trend.It is helpful for the rational development and utilization of water resources in Northwest arid area.This paper is divided into five chapters.The first chapter describes the background of this paper,and makes a systematic introduction to the results of the relevant predecessors,and also discusses the main work of this paper.The second chapter introduces the general situation of the research area and gives the data source.In Chapter 3,the Fisher optimal segmentation method is used to cluster the data of glacier mass balance and runoff at different altitudes of Glacier No.1 in the Urumqi River Source from 1989 to 2017,and the abrupt change of glacier mass balance and runoff in a certain year is determined.Then the classification points were found,and the year was divided into two time periods according to the classification points.Combined with the meteorological data of Daxigou meteorological Station,the effects of climate change on the mass balance and runoff of glaciers in the two time periods were explored respectively.In Chapter 4,quantile regression method is used to establish the regression equation of glacier mass balance and runoff at different altitude intervals over time.The change trend of glacier mass balance and runoff at different altitude intervals of Glacier No.1 in the Urumqi River Source during 1989-2017 is analyzed to observe whether it is significant at different sub-sites.The effects of temperature and precipitation on glacier mass balance and runoff at different altitudes were discussed,and the main meteorological factors affecting glacier mass balance and runoff were explored by curve fitting results.In Chapter 5,the results of the Fisher optimal segmentation method and quantile regression method are summarized.