Study On Waxberry Yield Forecasting And Climatic Productivity In Zhejiang Province

According to the yield and planting area of waxberry, and meteorological datum in the same period from 1985 to 2005 in Zhejiang province, multinomial and moving average methods have been used to analyze and simulate the relationship among them. The results showed that: the multinomial methods was more appropriate to separate the trend yield, and the yield of waxberry had close relationship with some climate factors of flower Suds period and autumn period, such as precipitation and temperature. On the basis of the analysis, a simulation model of the waxberry yield was constructed, and the system of waxberry yield forecasting was developed.When the waxberry yield was analyzed, considering the precipitation, temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours, and Penman-Monteith equation, solar radiation, evapotranspiration of waxberry in Zhejiang province were calculated. On the basis of the previous crop potential productivity study, photosynthetic potential productivity, photo-temperature potential productivity and climatic potential productivity, before and after the doubling of CO₂, were calculated. The results showed that: solar radiation, heat resources in Zhejiang province were enough to the needs of waxberry, but water was the main restrictive factor to the high-yield of waxberry; there were some regional difference of the climatic potential productivity, the productivity of the eastern coastal areas was obviously higher than that of the central and western regions; after the doubling of CO₂, there will be a universal increase of climatic potential productivity in Zhejiang province except Lishui, but there will be a greater increase in the low productivity areas than in the high productivity areas.Finally, the actual waxberry productivity in ZheJiang province had been compared to the photo-temperature-water waxberry climatic potential productivity. The results showed that: the waxberry climatic potential productivity wasn't exerted completely, the climatic potential productivity was only exerted at 52.6%, there were a large potential to increase yield.