| In the background of global warming,the frequency of extreme weather increases,and agriculture is a climate-sensitive high-risk industry.Therefore,study of climate change and the impact is the prerequisite for the agricultural adaptation to climate change and scientific disaster prevention and mitigation of agriculture.Huanghuai Plain is located in the south and north transition zone.There is abundant light,heat and water resources.In agriculture,the crops are mainly wheat and corn practicing two crops rotation for the two wheat and wheat crop rotation.In this paper,zone of Huanghuai Plain across Henan Province,Anhui Province and Jiangsu Province between 32°—36°north latitude and 112°—120°east longitude was taken.Using the 1957—2012 meteorological data of 20 meteorological stations in the region to establish databases of years,seasons,seedlings of winter wheat,middle of winter wheat and late stage of wheat corresponded to temperature and precipitation data.The annual changes,inter-decadal variations,mutagenesis and spatial distribution of the temperature,precipitation and climate productivity were analyzed by mathematical statistics and spatial analysis.And the correlations between climatic factors and climatic productivity in different stages were studied to determine the key factors affecting climate productivity.Also,the potential of climate production at different stages of the region were estimated and the climate productivity of year,winter wheat growing period were predicted.The conclusions were as follows:(1)During 1957—2012,the average annual temperature in the study area increased at the rate of 0.198?/10a.Among all stages,the temperature of spring,autumn,winter,early winter wheat,middle winter wheat,late winter wheat increased at the rate of 0.281?/10a?0.236?/10a?0.321?/10a?0.316?/10a?0.42?/10a?0.207?/10a,respectively.And the increasing trend was more significant after the1990s.However,temperature of summer reduced at the rate of 0.015?/10a.mutation occurred in all stages of the study time series,and mainly occurred in the1970s,1990s.Spatially,the temperature in each stage showed a gradually decreasing tendency from southwest to northeast,and the high temperature center and low temperature center were located near Fuyang,Lianyungang,respectively.(2)During 1957—2012,the precipitation in the study area reduced at the rate of 1.367mm/10a.Among all stages,the precipitation of spring,autumn,early winter wheat and middle winter wheat,late winter wheat reduced at the rate of 3.97mm/10a?6.033mm/10a?0.401mm/10a?3.152mm/10a,respectively.However,precipitation of summer,winter and late winter wheat increased at the rate of 6.734mm/10a?1.902mm/10a?0.802mm/10a,respectively.The summer is the main precipitation period in the whole year,in this season,precipitation accounted for 55.25%of the total annual rainfall.The precipitation in the three growth stages of winter wheat was less,accounting for 13.14%,11.61%and 7.875%of the annual precipitation,respectively.In the analysis of precipitation mutation,the positive and negative sequence curves intersected in many places,but no mutations occurred.In the space,the precipitation showed a relatively regular regularity in each research stage.Precipitation decreased gradually from southeast to northwest,precipitation of the northwest study area was generally less.(3)During 1957—2012,the climatic productivity of year,summer,late winter wheat in the study area increased at the rate of 7.3135 kg/(hm~2·a)?10.914 kg/(hm~2·a)?2.8478kg/(hm~2·a),respectively.reduced at the rate of 3.97mm/10a?6.033mm/10a?0.401 mm/10a?3.152 mm/10a,respectively.However,climatic productivity of autumn,early winter wheat and middle winter wheat reduced at the rate of 10.672kg/(hm~2·a)?0.9667 kg/(hm~2·a)?7.5202 kg/(hm~2·a),respectively.In the spatial,the climate productivity in the east of the Jinghang Grand Canal was generally higher than that of the west.In the west area of the Grand Canal,climate productivity in the south was generally higher than area in the north,especially in Henan Province.Climate productivity distribution of Jiangsu Province and Anhui Province were close.Climate productivity in summer was generally high,and that during middle growth period of winter wheat was generally low.High center of climate productivity was located near Xuyi,Jiangsu Province and the low center was located near Zhengzhou,Kaifeng.(4)Correlation analysis showed that there was a strong positive correlation below 0.01 between the temperature and the climatic productivity during the late period of winter wheat,and there was a strong positive correlation below 0.05between the temperature and the climatic productivity in summer.In all research stages,the precipitation were highly corresponded to climate productivity,the correlation coefficient were higher than 0.94,which convinced that precipitation was the main factor affecting the climate productivity for each stage.(5)In the study area,the actual unit yield of crop during 2006—2012 accounted for 75.79%,68.76%,77.51%,80.84%,80.68%,82.54%and 86.24%of climate productivity,respectively.Climate productivity potential was gradually reduced.During growth period of winter wheat,actual wheat production accounted for79.93%?87.42%?77.09%?82.20%?100.79%?86.96%?112.88%of climate productivity,and the proportion were higher than that of year proportion.It convinced that the utilization efficiency of climate resources in the study area had potential to be improved in year and Some scientific and effective measures could be taken to promote the annual actual crop yield within the region.(6)In the Huanghuai Plain,annual climatic productivity increases(or decreases)326.841 kg/(hm~2·a)when the temperature increases(or decreases)1?and annual climatic productivity increases(or decreases)5.529 kg/(hm~2·a)when the precipitation increases(or decreases)1 mm.According to the trend of the annual average temperature,the annual climate productivity will increase by 57.156 kg/hm~2 every ten years.During the growing season of winter wheat,the climatic productivity increases(or decreases)49.771 kg/(hm~2·a)when the temperature increases(or decreases)by1?and the climatic productivity increases(or decreases)26.144 kg/(hm~2·a)when the precipitation increases(or decreases)by 1 mm.In the winter wheat growth period,the average temperature increases by 0.314?/10a,the precipitation decreases by2.752 mm/10a,the climatic productivity will increase by 87.577 kg/hm~2 every ten years. |
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