Research On The Emulation Of The Emerging Industrial System In Changchun

This paper's topic is part of the "The Strategic Research of the Establishment of Emerging Industries in Changchun City Project". The project is initiated by the Science and Technology Bureau of Changchun City and be committed to the Economic Information Center of Jilin Province. Based on the industrial structure and its overall scale of certain industry, the establishment of emerging industrial system means to define certain industry as the emerging strategic industries and its developing sequence under specific economic conditions, thus realizing the rationalization of the industrial structure and advancement.Changchun City, as part of the old industrial base in northeast China, its industrial system plays a decisive role in the early decades of the PRC history. But with the constant development of social progress and reform, the city's capital-intensive, heavy-industrial systems are begin exposing a series of problems such as the industrial structure is irrational, aging equipments and technologies are out of date, the economic growth is weak and lack of stamina, etc. The Changchun City's industrial system has experienced a peak-to- decline process. Right now, the city's economy is ready to take off again in the new century. With the revitalization of the old industrial bases in northeast China strategy has been constantly deepened, the decision made by the city administration on what kind of emerging industrial system to establish and what kind of path we take to support the city's economic development will be crucial to the city's future economic take-off.After reading a lot of related theoretical literature and information both at home and abroad, the author found that vast majority of the current theoretical studies on industry choice are focusing on the choice benchmarks. Moreover, the choice of industries mainly concentrated in the leading industries and pillar industries rather than emerging sectors. Using system dynamics simulation software system on emerging industries is extremely rare.This paper collected Changchun City's economic statistical data form 1996 to 2006, established the city's emerging industries set with the industry scale and growth restrictions. According to the selected industries, this paper also built the emerging industrial system dynamics model, using systems perspective to analyze the developing trend of selected emerging industries.This paper creatively put forward the concept of resource constraints factor, and adds it into the model. When the production of resources are greater than the consumption, and the resources stock are sufficient, the resource constraint factor limits the excessive growth of the energy industry, reduces the amount of investments to the energy industry, forcing the surpluses recourses turn to other industries, in order to optimize the allocation of resources and speeds up economic development. Otherwise, when the resources consumptions are greater than its production, the resource constraints will accelerate the development of the energy industry and limit the investments over other industries. The resource constraint factor provides the regional resources production and consumption a self-adjustment to maintain the resources balance in a region.The emerging industrial system will not include the two pillar industries and the three leading industries of Changchun City: the two pillar industries are motor vehicles and parts manufacturing industry and the processing of agricultural products; three leading industries were photoelectric information industry, biomedicine industries and modern logistics industry. After selection, this paper selected 10 industries to form the emerging industry of Changchun City.Emerging industrial system is a complex open economic and social system. This paper focuses on its economical characteristics to establish the system dynamics model and the discussion. In terms of investment, net exports and labor productivity, three elements to promote economic growth. Investments in Changchun City not only play a pivotal role in the city's economic growth, but also can be directly adjusted by the city administration. Investments represent the Government's policy orientation, reflected the Government's guiding role in fostering emerging industries. This paper will analyze the influences brought by the investments.Through the simulations based on the system dynamics model and historical data, we can see that investments in fixed assets and output of specific emerging industries in Changchun City have directly proportional relationship, the higher the amount of investment in fixed assets, the greater the ratio, the greater total outputs an industrial emerging industry can get. The influences under the same level of their investments in fixed assets are different in different industries, the greater the Investment level, the greater the growth ratio of the emerging industrial GDP; but with the continuous improvement of the ratio of investment, the extent of the changes in GDP growth are slowing down. The tobacco industry, the fabricated metal products industry, new energy, industry and equipment manufacturing industries are closer related to the investment ratio; on contrary, wood processing industries and food manufacturing industries are less affected.Resources are the bottleneck of the economic growth in Changchun City. Resource constraint factor affects on every emerging industry. When resources stock reduces below a certain security level, the amount of investment on energy industry begin to increase while investments on other energy- consuming industries are declining; its impact will come to veal afterwards.The amount of investment in various industries can not be maintained at high level, long-term investment will lead to severe resources gap. This mode can not be resources self-sufficient, it is not sustainable. Energy industry should be the priority in the system.We proposed countermeasures and suggestions for future developments on the subject; provided a scientific basis for decision-making, based on the analysis and study of emerging industry of Changchun City.