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The Application Of Real Options In Evaluation Of Pharmaceutical R&D Projects

Posted on:2007-10-10Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:G LuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2120360242460867Subject:Probability theory and mathematical statistics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The real option is a mode of thinking managing the uncertainty based on the basic thought of option pricing .It is widely applied to the investment of the natural resources, high-new technology, R&D and so on. Pharmaceutical R&D projects is a system engineering that has high cost, high risk and high income, and subjected to the government control strictly. It is filled with many uncertain factors from develop to market, for example, uncertain technology, uncertain demand, uncertain valid patent period and so on. The real option is used more availably to analyze investment decision-making of Pharmaceutical R&D projects than traditional method. The research of this aspect not only make us follow close behind participate the front of manage science, but also improve the ability of international competition of our companies.This paper analyzes the characteristics of the Pharmaceutical industry, and then it aims at the characteristic that Pharmaceutical industry is affected strictly by government control. First, I use real options analyzing how the project is affected by the uncertainty of valid patent period. We discover that the possibility the patent is public compulsory will raise the critical price, so it will delay the investment. We analyze the influence of the related parameter upon the investment decision at the same time, and suggest the government can compensate the company by giving it longer patent protection provide the full patent protection after urgent circumstance. Last, the paper analyzes the influence of the uncertain market demand upon the investment decision of the Pharmaceutical R&D projects. It discovers the price control inflicted by the government will not delay the investment when the market demand has significant increment. So the price control can carry out the balance of pubic health and the benefits of enterprises.
Keywords/Search Tags:Real Option, Pharmaceutical R&D, Valid Period of Patent, Uncertain Demand
PDF Full Text Request
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