Temporal And Spatial Variations On Climate And Extreme Events In Hebei Province For The Recent 45 Years

Hebei Province is located in fragile belt , responding to changing to the climate is extremely sensitive . Go deep into the equal state of climate and extremal change characteristic studying Hebei Province is close to 45 all round, various finding out climate extremal counts a characteristic, disaster alleviation making policy and taking precautions against natural calamities all has important significance to the society economic activity and government's plan. The average value selecting and using 1971-2000 years is worth the main body of a book as climate criterion, from 39 meteorological observatories stand Hebei Province within the territory the meteorological observation data starts off day by day in 45 years, choose exceeding value and exceeding value threshold value, is tied in wedlock various meteorology analysis method, the area sensibility studying it's the average climate and exceeding climate event occurrence responds to global wanning.Main achievement and foak are summed up as follows:1, The background having studied the whole world increases the temperature goes down the averageHebei area climate state change characteristic.Time series aspect, the area air temperature and the precipitation time making use of means such as wavelet analysis , 1st time modulus array and trend modulus by that EOF decomposes to have analysed Hebei have developed , the include the array period , abrupt change condition, and face to face future trend has carried out a forecast. Space analyses aspect, makes use of REOF method, field and the air temperature have carried out a subarea on Hebei area precipitation according to whose climate characteristic, phenomenon having studied the fundamental climate characteristic and the space climate being unlike subarea amount of precipitation and air temperature jump over unexpected turn of events systematically.Under increasing warm background in the whole world, the Hebei air temperature shows for consistent notability rises, change a rate than the whole nation changes rate summary height, increase warm the most notable area being central Hebei plain area and littoral area of east, will do obvious change happened in the Hebei Province temperature distribution pattern, north part litre of temperature is high , litre of the southern part temperature is small. Be changed into warm main reaction increasing the temperature in the minimum air temperature wide, the difference bringing about a season disappears gradually weak; 1980's later stage begins , takes that winter unexpected turn of events is warm as main characteristic.Under increasing warm background in the whole world, the Hebei air temperature shows for consistent notability rises, change a rate than the whole nation changes rate summary height, increase warm the most notable area being central Hebei plain area and littoral area of east, will do obvious change happened in the Hebei Province temperature distribution pattern , north part litre of temperature is high , litre of the southern part temperature is small. Be changed into warm main reaction increasing the temperature in the minimum air temperature wide, the difference bringing about a season disappears gradually weak; 1980's later stage begins , takes that winter unexpected turn of events is warm as main characteristic.2, The frequency space-time change characteristic happened in the exceeding Hebei area climate event under the background having studied the whole world increases the temperature.The method making use of the linearity trend to estimate that law, M-Kcount a checkout has waited for the main body of a book , the angle has developed research a train of to exceeding 4 air temperature exponents and exceeding 8 precipitation exponents from space and time to the exceeding air temperature and exceeding precipitation change , the characteristic has carried out detailed analysis on climatic Hebei area extremal change thereby, the unexpected turn of events discovering the climate has been warm , has embodied in the decrease being lower than 0°C day numbers mainly, being higher than 35℃change trends are less greater than , most area is not notable. Under changeable warm global climate background, annual precipitation of He Bei District all quantity falls off , the time varying precipitation extremal entirety displays the trend coming down , 1980 is separation , indicates the abrupt change there existing one in demonstration in upper century seventies powder and the eighties first exceeding precipitation of Chinese frequency and extremal index. This precipitation extremal trend and arid the queen Chinese north in 1980 process have specially appointed something to do. Every stands for every year being over 95% strong threshold value precipitation gradually the warm increase assuming the weak uptrend , the seventies maximum , explaining the strong exceeding Hebei Province precipitation event and not having with climatic increasing being notable. The field decreases such as Zan Huang , Xing Tai , Shexian , Lao Ting , Yan Shan surpassing medium 75% threshold value rain day southern part plain every year is notable , the rainy centre testifying Hebei Province southern part is weakened in course of disappearing! Have amounts rain days to take that the southern part area and littoral city of east notability fall off as characteristic. Every stands for every year being over 95% strong threshold value precipitation gradually the warm increase assuming the weak uptrend , the seventies maximum , explaining the strong exceeding Hebei Province precipitation event and not having with climatic increasing being notable. The time happening disperses especially, the morning starts a month and ends a month lately. The circular current abrupt change has unitarity with big dimension. Greater than the trend that probability has to rise over the past few years appears on 100 mm downpours.To Hebei Province precipitation,lead to a main cause that average annual Hebei Province amount of precipitation cuts down be that light rain or moderate rain precipitation day number obviousness falls off every year. The trend is notable especially east Hebei plain area composes in reply Taihang Mountains front plain area arid-rization. In 21 centuries, exceeding precipitation event has increasing a trend comparatively obviously.