| In spite of positive outlooks of the contribution of agricultural to the Ghanaian economy,the sector growth rate seems to be declining owing to the country relevant history of susceptible to climate extremes such as flood,windstorm,rainstorm,drought and tidal waves?Hydro-meteorological Disasters?and also Bush fires.The effects of these and the vulnerability of the small and medium farmers make it disheartening for government and stakeholders.The sector is characterized by little growth of output per capita,low productivity,pervasive il iterac y,static and poorly developed institutions,restrictive markets and unprogressive policy stance or policy inconsistency.Reasonable changes in the weather during the crucial stages of crop development have a significant impact on the yields.While the cost of inputs,the types of tools used,the availability of irrigation water,rainfall and commodity prices also contribute to factors leading to a change in yields,the expectation is that severe climate changes leading to natural calamities have endangered the growth of agriculture production in the country.These consequences generally occur through losses in physical capital and infrastructure and can result in higher costs of living to the disadvantage farmers.Further,the awareness of the increasing incidence of extremes,or even the perception that this is true and associated with climate change,has the potential to impact on Ghana's economy,mainly through altered consumption patterns and influence on the insurance regime.The aggregate effect of these changes in perception is general y understood to be an increase in saving and a decrease in consumption,resulting in a different composition of demand structure in the economy and affecting regional competitiveness.To help gain comprehensive insights of the study,specific eight objectives were developed to aid realizing the general objective:Assessing the impact of climate extremes on agricult ura l production and the role of climate adaptation and mitigation strategies in Ghana.The first objective of the study was to carry out a rigorous statistical analysis into the detection of evolving trends in climate extremes.The second objective was to perform an exhaustive statistical analysis into the detection of catastrophic climate risk.The third specific objective sought to analyze the relationship between climate extremes to agriculture production while the fourth objective was to explore the moderating effect of climate adaptation strategies between climate extremes and agriculture production.The fifth objective is to analyze the direct relationship of climate adaptation strategies on agriculture production.The sixth specific objective is to determine the direct relationship of climate adaptation on climate mitiga t io n strategies.The seventh objective was to evaluate the direct relationship of climate mitiga t io n strategies on agriculture production while the eighth objective is to explore the moderating effect of climate mitigation strategies between climate extremes and agriculture production.The achievement of these objectives was realized through the data obtained from the Ghana Meteorological Agency?climate data?and the Food and Agriculture Organizat io n?Agricultural production indexes?.Rainfall and temperature are considered the main determinants of the weather in the study and also constituted the independent variables as well.The remaining constructs of the study included climate adaptation strategies?climate resilie nt agriculture system,resilient climate infrastructure and climate resilient with education?,and climate mitigation strategies?reduction in emissions:carbon dioxide,methane,and nitrous oxide,an alternative source of energy,farm profitability and genetic improvement?as moderating variables and agriculture production?cereals,livestock,cocoa,food and crops?as dependent variables.The production indexes in agriculture range from 1961-2018,while the indicators for weather range from January 1960 until July 2018.The first task was to verify the stationarity of the weather variables using the enhanced Dickey-Fuller?ADF?test and then the Mann-Kendall test of the seasonality which identified significant trends.Further Mann-Kendall test was employed to calculate the annual-monthly precipitat io n anomalies to eliminate seasonal effects as opposed to wavelet analysis.The next step was to develop a model of the weather indicator using the block maximum method for extreme weather conditions under Generalized Extreme Value Distribution.The utilization of two approaches is:either the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution for minima fitted to this data or the data negated and the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution for maxima fitted.The latter approach was adopted since the Extremes Toolkit does not include a routine to estimate the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution for minima directly.The block maxima method is a parametric approach to Extreme Value Theory and is used to estimate the Value-at-risk and return level as risk measures.Further,the PLS-SEM model was employed in the test of paths analysis and the moderation analysis of climate adaptation and mitigation strategies on agriculture production.Having achieved the stated objectives of the study through the methodological approaches employed,the justification of the study,therefore,lies in the quest to fill the gap in the literature of climate extremes on agriculture production and to broaden the application in the current domain of the study.Through climate adaptation and mitigation strategies,the consideratio n,in other words,the justification is based on three focal dimensions-contextual,theoretical and methodological.On contextual dimension,Ghana was chosen because it is increasingly experiencing ecological chal enges,which have attracted the attention of government and stakeholders in agriculture.The long-term goal of adaptation in Ghana is to increase climate resilience and reduce vulnerability by improving sustainable development,while the mitigation objective is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions unconditionally by 15 per cent for work as an average emission of 73.95 mil ion tons of Carbon dioxide?CO2?by 2030.Ghana's vulnerability to climate change and variability presents an opportunity to explore how climate adaptation and mitigation strategies on vulnerabilities?social,economic,and environmental?are frames to augment agriculture production.One other justification for undertaking this study in Ghana stems from the fact that the agricultural sector plays a significant contribution to the Ghanaian economy.The study built on the theories of Climate Change Mitigation and Return on Equity Investment.On the adaptation strategies,the study looks at the adaptation with education,resilient agriculture systems and resilient climate infrastructure and their respective moderation effect in the relationship between climate extremes and agriculture production.These are built on the theories of organizational Learning,the theory of Change and Cultural Theory of Risk.The result shows that large amounts of precipitation ranging from 900 to 1900 mm are recorded at the level of the entire country annually with very high rainfall amounts between1500 and 1900 mm in the southwestern part of the country,and few rainfalls?900-1200 mm?registered in the Savannah and the eastern coast of the country.The results of the seasonal trend analysis also reveal a significant decrease in the 99%confidence level in all agro-ecological regions except for the Savannah region during the December-January-Febr uar y season,indicating Hammatan's intensification.The coastal region has the lowest average precipitation in all seasons,with the highest recorded 150 mm in March-April-May.Also,the forest area records very high precipitation values in all seasons,with a height of about 200 mm in June and July,followed by about 170 mm in March-April-May.However,the transitio n zone registers approximately similar values for precipitation?120-170 mm?for all seasons except December-January-February where the average rainfall decline is about 50 mm.The Savannah region has the lowest precipitation amount of about 6 mm in the December-February season,with the highest precipitation of 173.99 mm in June and July.This value is significa nt ly higher than that recorded in the forest?173.52 mm?during the same season.However,the savanna zones have had most of its rainfall during July and August while the latter has most of the rainfall that contributed significant rains in June.On the 10-year scale,normal precipitation values between 1901-1920 and 1980-2010 for all agro-ecological zones except for the Savannah zones which appears above average rainfall values during the period 1901-1940.Similarly,precipitation values above natural values recorded between 1930 and 1980 for all agro-ecological zones.These variables confirmed the effects of the active south-western monsoon on the region.Furthermore,by using a longer time scale analysis for objective two,the results show that Extreme Value Theory?EVT?is a reliable tool for climate extreme scenarios constructio n?risk?,where maximum likelihood method supported the evaluation of distribution parameters for weather extreme.The generalised extreme value model is found to be the most suitable model with fulfilling all statistical selection criteria for Value-at-Risk.The return level?risk estimate?for the model is constructed to predict the climate extremes for a long run in future.There is general y an increase in climate extreme as it consistently increasing from 5,10,25,for the next 100 years.Regarding objective three,evidence from results indicated that extreme maximum rainfa ll adversely affects cereal and cocoa production.Cereals and cocoa thrive well when the rainfa ll is well distributed and not concentrated in some months and leaving other months virtua lly without rains.Maximum extreme temperatures contribute positively to all the indicators under consideration.Minimum extreme temperatures also except cocoa production have a positive impact on the remaining parameters.Regarding objectives four and five,the test from the empirical results of climate adaptation and mitigation strategies show that climate extremes have adverse effects on agricult ure production.This,therefore,suggests the need for adaptation strategies in the agriculture sector to help mitigate the adverse effects of climate extremes on agriculture production.The result further shows that climate resilient agriculture system moderates the relations hip between climate extremes and agriculture production by dampening the negative effect of climate extremes.The results further demonstrate that,alteration of forage and animal species/breeds associated with favorable condition augment livestock productivity.Since,severe heats are inimical to livestock breeds which might lower levels of livestock productivity.Some freshwater fisheries take the advantage of natural fish populations,which represent management adaptations to climate change.Such reductions may at the same time improve resilience of fish stocks to climate change.The adaptation strategies to control insect that damage the forest trees include prescribed burning for reducing forest vulnerability and adjusting harvesting schedules,so that those stands most vulnerable to insect defoliation would be harvested preferentially.Adaptations in the field-based livestock requires additional care to continuously match stock rates with pasture production,altered rotation of pastures,modification of times of grazing,and timing of reproduction,alteration of forage and animal species/breeds,altered integration within mixed livestock/crop systems including using adapted forage crops,reassessing fertilizer applications,care to ensure adequate water supplies,and use of supplementary feeds and concentrates.Again on the moderation effects,the result shows that the adaptation with education positively moderates the relationship between climate extremes and agriculture production by eroding the negative effect of climate extremes on agriculture production.By implicat io n,agriculture education plays a pivotal role in the promotion of agriculture production in Ghana.The study demonstrates that climate extreme with education can inure benefits to agricult ure production by focusing more on both local and international research.Through this,relevant ideas regarding improved seeds,technology to detect signs of climate extremes and other related climate hazards exposed.There has been much investment in climate change by donor partners,but knowledge and skills by recipient countries for climate change mitigation or climate science is generally inadequate across all levels.A national policy is,therefore,required for training in the formal,non-formal and informal sectors.Regarding objective six,the findings revealed that there are significant synergies between adaptation and mitigation.There is a clear link between adaptation and mitigation under the climate regime,understood as the“cause and effect”interaction.If mitigation can lead to a successful impact at a lower level,adaptation can be successful in coping with more of the resulting impacts.In addition,the results revealed that while the demand of mitiga tion is for the global good,it can also be local,because demand for mitigation will be highest when and where adaptive capacity is exceeded,and the supply of mitigation capacity is certainly local.With regards to objective seven and eight,the empirical results revealed that climate mitigation strategies were significant in reducing the negative effect of climate extremes on agriculture production.Thus,climate extremes,climate adaptation and climate mitiga t io n strategies impacted on agriculture production.A demonstration is given the vital role of climate adaptation and climate mitigation strategies as drivers in mitigating the effect of climate extremes on agriculture production.Further,the study revealed strong evidence of climate mitigation strategies as major drivers in weaken climate extremes,leading to considerable increase in agricultural yields in Ghana.Innovation plays a central role in academic research and signifies new developments in an existing study different from previous studies conducted.Based on this,the main innovat io n of the study focused on the domain?contextual?,theoretical and methodological.On the context of the study,unlike the analysis of single-site climate sequence,this dissertation adopts the extreme value model with spatial parameterization scheme to study the regional process of climate extremes in Ghana.Further,different from the simple observationa l research,this dissertation starts from trend analysis of Ghana climatic conditions.Regarding the agricultural sector,observation of climate extremes has cause untold damages on the agriculture products in Ghana.It is worthy of note to realise that literature mainly concentrated on developed countries regarding the effects of climate extremes on agriculture to the neglect of Ghana.Against this and as part of injecting innovation,the study pinned on the role of climate adaptation and mitigation strategies on the effect of climate extremes on agricult ure production in Ghana,which in the view of the researcher is given little attention.This study primarily focuses in Ghana because it will unearth the degree of adaptation and mitiga t io n strategies associated with social,economic and environmental vulnerabilities of climate extremes on agriculture production in the country.On the theoretical dimension,climate extreme on agriculture production is predominant ly focused on theory of vulnerability to climate which encompasses the collective nature of vulnerability of a group or community to the impacts of climate change,involving a complex set of factors,including the institutional arrangements for preparedness for hazards,with greater numbers of social factors involved in collective vulnerability including gender,ethnic and other differentials of vulnerability.Similarly,other body of literatures dwell on equity theory?distributional justice,including future generations?,social legitimacy theory?procedural justice?and sustainability theory?including inter-species justice?as well as risk of increased greenhouse gas emissions which would operate as a positive feedback to climate change.Through review of extant literatures,it is observed that there is dearth of theory pertaining to climate adaptation and mitigation strategies that have direct or indirect influe nce on agriculture to study how these strategies moderate the relationship between climate extremes and agriculture production.In view of this,the study considered climate mitiga t io n as a tool to reducing Greenhouse gas?GHG?emissions?carbon,methane,nitrous oxide?,alternative energy sources,genetic improvement and improved farm profitability that collectively moderates the relationship between climate extremes and agriculture production.Consequently,this is built on the theory of climate Change Mitigation and Return on Equity Investment.On the angle of adaptation strategies,the study further looks at the adaptation with education,resilient agriculture systems and climate resilient infrastructure and their respective moderation effect in the relationship between climate extremes and agriculture production.These are built on the theories of organizational Learning,theory of Change and Cultural Theory of Risk different from previous works done.Against this backdrop,the study envisages that the introduction of climate adaptation and mitigation strategies and the role they play on agriculture production epitomizes a significant theoretical innovation point.On the methodological dimension,this study empirically tested and compared the influe nce of rare event of weather and Agriculture production by the EVT model and PLS-SEM regression to aid the understanding of extreme value theory.Hence from the empirical point of view,the application of the Extreme Value Theory?EVT?could yield new insights regarding risk in climate extremes,thereby contributing immensely to filling the literature gaps on the research subject and providing useful information to enrich environmental manageme nt programs and analysis.The study further provides an insight as to how well estimate of Extreme Value Theory and PLS-SEM regression proffer insight of climate extremes couple with adaptation and mitigation strategies on agriculture production.It is essential to emphasize that previous works on climate extremes fail to analyse the combine moderating effect of adaptation and mitigation strategies on agriculture production.Thus,this attempt represents a significant innovation of the current study.The application of EVT on a temporal and spatial distribution of climate extremes uses the extreme value model to estimate the future risk of climate.The research process is targeted to study the distribution characteristics of extreme events and the potential mechanism from the perspective of time and space dependence of extreme values.The predictability of extreme values discussed from the perspective of stochastic distribution reflecting dynamic characteristics.By so doing,this study provides in-depth empirical research for better understanding of the relationship among the indicators:agricultural production?livestock production,food production,cereal production,cocoa production and crop production?,climate adaptation strategies(climate resilient agricult ure systems,climate resilient agriculture infrastructure and climate adaptation with education.Also,the study considered climate mitigation strategies to entail the reduction of emissio ns such as CO2,N2O,and CH4.An important policy recommendation in this study is discussed in detail through considering the empirical results of the effect of climate extremes on agriculture production,the moderating effect of climate adaptation strategies,and climate mitigation strategies between climate extremes and agriculture production. |
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