The Summary And Application Of Risky Decision Models

According to whether have probabilities information of objective factors and whether need to design experiments to make sure of the information ,The risky decision can be devided into three types: No probabilities information risky decision (we can also address it "uncertain decision")No experiments risky decision and have experiments risky decision (some times we call it "Beyes decision"),and the basic concepts and principles of risky decision are presented as well. By discussing the reliability of uncertain decision principle, the misuses of the first type principle are explained To the Analytical Hierarchy process, we collect some dates about Investments in individual finance sot that we can set up a model of optimization with Analytical Hierarchy Process. When the Decision tree analysis be mentioned, we point out some limitation of traditional methods,and by introduce the concepet of Finance timely Value,we put forward a few problems which should be paid attention to as considering the Finance timely Value and sensitive analysis.