Positive Analyze On The Groundwater Environment Of Last 20 Years Of Baicheng City

Since the mid-twentieth century environment problem has become the great crisis of the whole globe .the environment which mankind rely on for existence and development has been rigorously challenged, resources of fast fierce development and use , make the ecosystem environment encountered severity break, and make various pollution trouble .take place again and again .nowadays . Environmental problem has already become one of the global problems human being has to face of .it causes wide spread concern of all countries.Under ground water pollution is a phenomenon that the value of ground water diminished for its physical,chemical,biological character changed by the dirty things discarded by human activity .With the development of society economy, the garbage of the city industrial garbage and the mud accumulated by waist water treatment factory various solid dirty garbage piling up makes great pollution to the groundwater;Living waist water is the main pollution that brings nitrate and nitrogen to city's shallow ground water .dirty water with great deal of germ and virus that drained from hospital directly goes to under ground make great pollution to under ground water, all these pollutions certainly make bad impact on people's daily life and greatly damage local city economy development. environment problem concerning with groundwater has become more and more important .The ground water environment quality relates directly to a series of problems such as city's economy construction . People's living and environment protection .so its very important for us to make actually evaluation and estimate for quality of ground water environment.Evaluation and estimate of the groundwater environment are one of the important contents of the programming management of the groundwater resources, it has great important realistic meaning on promoting the Keep-on exploitation of the groundwater resources .the establishment of the model on evaluation and estimate of the groundwater and the application of the model has been greatly valued in recent years.To estimate means using actual data material and applying modern science theorem and method also by abundant experience and actual judgment to explore development tendency of things .so we can make evaluation and analysis to guide the future action to make less uncertainty for future.This article is based on return analysis theories, taking the practical data about groundwater environment .first we will dram sparse dot diagram on various environment datum changing with time with one series of data ,we will use S-PLUS software to establish linear return models of polynomial with different degree the we test these models and get AIC values of these models .at last by multipurpose utilization of AIC rule and coefficient R2 value we can chose the best model we want .finally we use the model to evaluation and estimate the groundwater environment of Baicheng city in recent decade .It shows that by this method we build up a good establishment model .with higher accuracy and better result.