| The Internet monetary fund,represented by Yu'E Bao,has flourished in China since 2013,and its scale to the market share of the money market fund has been increasing,which has turned into an significant part of the financial market.The return rate of Yu'E Bao has been declining in recent years and it shows a descending trend since its establishment,which is not only related to the interests of investors,but also has a certain influence on the stability of the fund market.At its28 th meeting in May 2020,the Financial Commission of the State Council said that focusing on the risks of some financial products,improving the awareness of risk precaution and regulation,and intensifying the risk control of related products,it can be seen that financial risks still need to be managed.The intent of this paper is to study the reasons for the change of the return rate of Yu'E Bao,explain the phenomenon of its falling yield,and give some suggestions for funds in the same industry and investors.Firstly,this paper specifies the definition of the Internet monetary fund,depicts its development and current status in China,and analyzes the related subject,operating model and features,investment portfolio,income and industry representation of Yu'E Bao.The analysis shows that the return rate of Yu'E Bao as a whole is down,falling to the lowest value in history in 2020;since 2017,the fund managers have continuously adjusted its portfolios to increase the proportion of cash assets and add the liquidity of their assets.Secondly,this paper analyzes the effect of various factors on the return rate of Yu'E Bao from the theoretical level,and probes into the study hypothesis.Different from the studies before,in addition to monetary policy and fund scale,this paper also chooses the economic policy uncertainty index in China and the return rate of similar alternative products.Finally,given that the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive(TVP-VAR)model assumes that the coefficients and covariance matrices are time-varying,it can reflect the dynamic characteristics of each parameter.Therefore,this paper establishes a TVP-VAR model including the return rate of Yu'E Bao,money supply,interbank offered rate,fund scale and the return rate of similar alternative products,obtains the impulse response between equal time interval and special time point through Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation,empirically analyzes the dynamic time-varying relationship between the variables above,and probes into the factors influcing the return rate of Yu'E Bao.The outcomes show that in the face of the unit positive influence of interbank offered rate,fund scale and the return rate of similar alternative products,the return rate of Yu'E Bao is positive response,and a positive influence of economic policy uncertainty and money supply have negative impact on the return rate of Yu'E Bao.In the equal time interval impulse response,the interbank offered rate and the fund scale have a greater influence on the return rate of Yu'E Bao.In the special time point impulse response,economic policy uncertainty has the greatest influence.During these years,the main reason for the continued falling in the return rate of Yu'E Bao is that the increased economic policy uncertainty leads to a poor economic environment and changes in monetary policy.besides,in order to deal with the liquidity risk caused by uncertainty,the fund manager adjusts the proportion of asset to enhance the liquidity of assets,which reduce the return rate of Yu'E Bao.Finally,this paper raises corresponding policy suggestions for funds in the same industry and investors. |
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