Research Of Geo-Hazard Warning And Prediction Model In JiuNing Area (TongGu-YiFeng) In JiangXi Province

Due to the increase of population density and development of industry and agriculture, enviroment is damaged more and more severely now. And with the disaster climate increasing, geological hazards happened frequently, which cause great loss to human beings. So China Geological Survey disposed a project Monitoring Forecast Demonstration Project in Important Geo-hazard Area of Jiangxi Province in December 2004. Jiuning, including towns of Tonggu and Yifeng, is one of the important geo-hazard areas, and one of the rainstorm centers in Jiangxi. And the research of geo-hazard forecast model in this Area is one task of the whole project. In the research area, rainfall is the major factor inducing geo-hazard and the common character of the hazards is that the component is soil and the hazards are small but great hazardous. The aim of the research is to build up an appropriate geo-hazard forecast model for Jiangxi and provide prediction experience for other provinces form the aspects of theory and technique.In this thesis, the basic characters and enviroment of the hazards in Jiuning area are summarized. And the relationships between hazards and the inducing factors are analyzed. Then the regional geo-hazard spacial prediction model is established and the zonation is finished, which provide effective spacial target for geo-hazard real-time warning and prediction for the research area. The detailed processes is:I Dividing the area into 14415 small regular foursquare grids with 500m length of side.II Selecting 4 appropriate primary evaluation indexs with 26 secondary factors, including topography, stratum, structure, and engineering by human beings.III Extracting essential data by technique of GIS to get the information prediction equation as following:I₁, =-1.164X₁ -0.999X₂ -0.681X₃ +......+ 0.203X₂₅ -0.135X₂₆In the above equation, the factor in each grid is 1 when exist and 0 when not exist. So each gird will has information according to the information equation. IV Determing the hazardous grade in each grid by the geo-hazard zonation critical...