Study On Forecast Of Landslides In Xiashu Loess In Ningzhen Region

Landslide is a geo-hazards which happened usually, there are a lot of economic lose because of landslide. The study on landslide mostly includes analysis of the landslide that happened and predicting of landslide. A lot of spatial data need to be processed during the research of landslide, GIS which has powerful analysis and managing of spatial data can resolve the difficulty of research.Landslide happened frequently in Ningzhen region of Jiangsu province, especially the landslides that were caused by rainfall occupy most part of the total landslides. It connects to Xiashu Loess which distributes abroadly in Ningzhen region, Xiashu Loess has special engineering geology characteristic, Xiashu Loess's engineering geology characteristic is difference in dry and wet condition. It cause stability Xiashu Loess slope to be sensitive to rainfall.In this paper, through the research of Xiashu Loess characteristic and landslide data in Ningzhen Region, analyzed landslide characteristic and mechanism, research the relative between landslide and the effect factor; analyzed geology data of Xiashu Loess in Ningzhen Region by MAPGIS software, construct different effect factor layers and save relative data; combine special analysis function of MAPGIS software and sensitive calculating method, describe quantificationally sense of different effect factor landslide geo-hazards by SC; calculate sense of effect factors of stability of slope, confirm the of effect factors used AHP. Construct the landslide region stability predicting and forecast Model based on GIS raster data.Construct landslide region stability predicting and forcaste Model based on MAPGIS accord to landslide danger region forecast Model, which used VB,VC and MAPGISSDK6.0 .available rainfall is effect factors of the model, forecast the danger of Xiashu Loess area slope in Ningzhen Region.