A Preliminary Study Of Earthquake Impacts On Social Economy

Earthquake happens frequently in China, and it causes serious economic losses. With the development of modern social economy and the raising of city civilization, such losses tend to be increasing with a large impact extent. And they bring a lagging effect on the growth of social economy.For a given region, the economy growth is a climbing process of the total economy amount. Although not Jl the periods have positive values of economic growth in this process, the general trend of economy is raising of the gross amount at different rates and with varied amplitudes. Based on this knowledge, this thesis attempts to study impacts of earthquakes on social economy. The approach is a statistic and prediction way of economy. First, using statistic data and their time sequence, the economic growth is estimated in the assumed case without earthquake disaster. Then, the impacts of earthquake on economy are analyzed by comparing the predicted and actual values of economy growth. As earthquake disasters have regional characteristics, two classes of regions, i.e. rural and urban areas are selected as study objects, represented by Lancang and Baotou respectively. A comparison method in vertical and horizontal direction is used to make a detailed analysis to this problem.(1) Earthquake impacts on economy in rural areas.In rural areas, economic losses by earthquakes are mainly resulted from house collapse and damage of farmland and irrigation facilities. The first industry suffers the most serious loss, which is indicated by decreased agricultural production values in the tow years after an earthquake. Through a great deal of reconstruction, this industry begins to return to normal in the third year. The second industry is also influenced by earthquake, but it earned develop faster than before the event, since reconstruction after disasters has a large demand for construction and building materials. The third industry is usually weak in these areas with a limited gross value. But it is sensitive to earthquakes due to the influence of insurance trades that have a large loss in business. Therefore its production value is reduced in the year of the event and raises quickly in the following several years because of the pull of reconstruction in other fields.As damage is often serious in rural areas, they can obtain many aids from outsides. Stimulated by the foreign investment, the local economy in these areas gains a new round of development. Hence local economy may be prosperous after an earthquake. But it is only a phenomenon of short time. The role of aids from outside is limited. And the economic development of an area relies upon its own capability. Although a major earthquake disaster may interrupt the development trend of a seismic area for a short time, its economy will continue alongits original way several years later.(2) Earthquake impacts on social economy in urban areas.In urban areas, the economy is dominated by industrial production and service trades. Major earthquakes can destroy industrial equipment and lifetime infrastructures, and stop production of enterprises, transportation, and communication in cities. Every field can be affected by earthquake disasters. Among them, the impact on the second industry is most serious, that on the third industry takes second place, and loss of the first industry is little. Usually the quality of building in urban areas is better than that in rural areas, so the damage by earthquakes of construction in cities is relatively less than that in countryside. Concealed hurt to society and economy is an important problem for a city that is hit by a major earthquake. As the demand of reconstruction is not very large, the construction and relevant trades will not get rapid growth after an earthquake disaster. Furthermore, investors will be more cautious due to consideration of earthquake hazards. Therefore, the impacts of earthquake on the second industry in urban areas are the largest.(3) Difference of earthquake impacts I two kinds of areas.In rural areas, the third industry is most sensit...