Dynamic Simulation Of Landscape Pattern Of Fuzhou City Based On CA-Markov Model

With the rapid development of social and economy in Fuzhou, the regional land use and land cover has changed dramatically. Under the background of population increasing, urbanization accelerating, and survival environment pressure increasing, Fuzhou landscape pattern varied significantly. Human activities interference makes regional ecological system structure and function disorder, followed by the water and air pollution, soil erosion and geological disasters and other ecological environment problems, which not only affects the ecological environment protection and land rational utilization, but also threats social and economic sustainable development. So simulating Fuzhou landscape patterns dynamically and analysis the regional ecological effect of Fuzhou land use/land cover changes can provide scientific basis for the sustainable social and economic development.This paper takes Fuzhou as the research area ,on the basis of extracting landscape ecological information of Fuzhou four periods remote sensing image, using LEAPII software FRAGSTATS3.3 to calculate the landscape pattern index in order to analysis Fuzhou landscape pattern change rule. Then using multiple-criteria evaluation model analysis the relationship between the landscape pattern evolution and natural, social and economic factors. Finally applying IDRISI software to create CA_ Markov model to simulate Fuzhou landscape pattern in 2014. The conclusions are as follows:(1)The study on the evolution of Fuzhou landscape pattern shows that the main landscape type of the area is arable land and forest land, but along with the social economy development and accelerating urbanization, Fuzhou landscape pattern overall presents the trend of increasing on the construction land, garden land, woodland and the decreasing on the cultivated land, water and unused land. Through analysis the landscape types of three stages of transition probability matrix of Fuzhou ,we can know that, from 1994 to 2009 ,farmland is mainly changed into construction land, and there are some changed into garden because of agricultural structure adjustment, the complement of cultivated land is mainly from the garden land, forest land and unused. Garden is mainly translated into woodlands and cultivated land, the complement of garden is mainly from the increase of cultivated land, forest land and unused. Woodland is mainly translated into farmland and field, the complement of woodland is mainly from cultivated land, garden land. The construction land is mainly from arable land and unused land, the area of construction changed into other types of landscape is little. Unused land is mainly translated into arable land and construction land, the transition probability of other types of the landscape to the unused land are smaller. From 1994 to 2009, the number of Fuzhou landscape patch rise, PSCV increases, MPS and FD has a descending trend; the shape of landscape patch space tends to be simple. The increasing in the Landscape fragmentation indicates that the influence of human activities on land use pattern in study area becomes deeper. Meanwhile the index of Fuzhou Shannon diversity and distribution and paralleling increase, the index of dominance index and spreading reduces minor. This indicates that the landscape pattern are relatively stronger disturbed by human, causing the landscape pattern of distribution of each element, each landscape types tend to be evenly patch area ratio difference increases, the landscape pattern heterogeneity increase, landscape diversity has risen, causing the woodlands and farmland landscape in the whole landscape pattern. The advantage degree decline.(2)The result of analysis on the driving factors and mechanism of Fuzhou landscape pattern evolution shows that the distance away from city center plays a important effect on the change of landscape type. Because of city expansion, the more close to the city, the more quickly the cultivated land is translated into construction land. From 1994 to 2009, from the city 1000m range, it's the fastest that the cultivated land is changed into construction within the range of 1000m from city. With the distance from city center increasing, woodland area increased, area ratio also increases gradually. Road also has a certain effect on the landscape patterns change. During 15 years, the area of construction land such as expressway, national and provincial highway and railway within 3500m range near has increased, and the increase has accelerated since 1999. But as the farther the distance begins ,the smaller the increasing range becomes .Compared the four level of roads, the effect of the highways and railroads is relatively small, but the scope of influence is far ,of highway, national highway and provincial highway have more influence in the 1500m range.The terrains have an important impact on landscape patterns, different terrain conditions restrict the distribution of various types of the landscape in Fuzhou, also affects landscape types of change direction. 90% percentage of construction land, arable land, water and beaches is distributed in slope 0 to 6 degrees areas, where the changes also occur predominantly in this range. 6 degrees above, forest area has an absolute advantage above 6 digress. Between 6 degrees to 15 degrees some cultivated land change into forest land; other landscape type's area ratio is comparatively small.Rivers also have influences on the landscape pattern space distribution in some extent. The ratio of the cultivated land, garden land and construction land area reduces with the buffer range increasing. However the ratio of forest area becomes larger as the distance from river become further. Beyond Six degrees from rivers beyond, forestry area has an absolute advantage, other landscape types of area ratio were comparatively small.Considering on the relationship between the social economic factors and the landscape pattern change ,there are two social economic driving factors influencing Fuzhou landscape pattern changing, factor 1 include economic development, urbanization, population growth, factor 2 is mainly agricultural development. The two driving factors mainly affect Fuzhou changes of landscape structure. Moreover, from 1994 to 2009, the influence of the two driving factors on changes in Fuzhou landscape pattern becomes stronger.(3)Based on CA - Markov model, using landscape pattern diagram generated by the Fuzhou 1999 and 2004 remote sensing image to verify the effect of CA-Markov model in simulating the landscape pattern .The result of Kappa index reaches 0.76, with high reliability, which shows that the model can better simulate the dynamic change of Fuzhou city landscape pattern, and meet the need for research and prediction in general.The simulation of the landscape pattern in Fuzhou in 2014 shows that from 2010 to 2014, the area of cropland and forest decrease constantly, while construction land continues increase, other landscape types change little. The mean patch area tend to be small, the complexity of patch shape tend to be simplified, and the diversity index has slightly increased .It shows that the influence extent of human activities on landscape pattern become strengthen constantly.