Vulnerability To Re-poverty Assessment,early Warning And Targeted Poverty Prevention Mechanism Under The Background Of Poverty Withdrawal

After the withdrawal of absolute poverty in 2020,the focus of China’s poverty governance has changed from eliminating absolute poverty to consolidating and expanding the achievements of poverty eradication and connecting rural revitalization.How to prevent poverty and build a early warning mechanism system with accurate poverty prevention as the core has become the most realistic and urgent task at present.The phenomenon of returning to poverty(i.e.re-poverty)is a concrete manifestation of the dynamic process of poverty.The existing researches on re-poverty focus on the causes,identification methods,generation mechanism and governance countermeasures of re-poverty,and most of them are qualitative analysis.However,there are few reports on the early warning of re-poverty,especially the early warning assessment of re-poverty from the perspective of vulnerability,which is obviously not conducive to accurately grasping the dynamic changes and prevention direction of poverty in China in the future.Based on the spatial poverty theory,capacity poverty theory,vulnerability to poverty theory,sustainable livelihood theory and self-organized criticality theory,this paper attempts to interpret the mechanism of re-poverty under the background of poverty exit from the perspective of vulnerability,and believes that vulnerability is the common and essential attribute of the subjects who re-poverty or have the risk of re-poverty,and this attribute will lead to the lack of basic “anti-poverty ability” of the subjects.When the subjects are in a critical state,adverse impact will trigger a causal chain reaction and then lead to the re-poverty mutation.This paper explains the phenomenon of re-poverty from the perspective of vulnerability and derives the concept and connotation of vulnerability to re-poverty and vulnerability to re-poverty early warning.Based on the above theories and perspective,taking into account the practical experience and theoretical results of poverty control in China and the world in an overall way,the prevention of re-poverty should not only focus on and grasp the spatial process and evolutionary trend of poverty dynamics in heterogeneous regions from the “face”,as well as the important impact of geographical environment on sustainable poverty reduction or re-poverty after poverty alleviation,but also aim at and track the livelihood capacity,welfare level and re-poverty factors of individuals or families after poverty relief from a “point” perspective.Therefore,this paper integrates multi-source data(geographic information data,census data,statistical yearbook data,participatory questionnaire survey data,etc.)to deeply explore the poverty reduction effectiveness,vulnerability to re-poverty early warning and its influencing factors of former national poverty-stricken counties and registered poverty-alleviation households in China from the regional and household levels,so as to achieve the mutual supplement and verification of “face” and “point”.At the regional level,taking 832 national poverty-stricken counties in China as the research object,BP neural network method,ESDA method,ESTDA method and geographic detector method are used to analyze the temporal and spatial pattern and evolution of vulnerability to multidimensional poverty in former national poverty-stricken counties from 2012 to 2019,as well as the early warning,classification and influencing factors of vulnerability to re-poverty in poverty-stricken counties.The study found that:(1)Since 2012,the degree of vulnerability to poverty in former national poverty-stricken counties of China has been continuously reduced,and the degree of vulnerability to regional poverty has shown a ladder decreasing distribution from west to East,and the high,medium-high vulnerable areas have been fragmented until they are reduced and concentrated in the third quadrant of Hu Huanyong-Botai line;(2)The vulnerability to poverty of former national poverty-stricken counties in each year maintained a strong spatial clustering feature as a whole.Although the convergence of “clubs” eased slightly with the passage of years,the two-level differentiation was still obvious,showing a clear pattern of heat in the west and cold in the east.The local spatial structure of vulnerability to poverty in poverty-stricken counties has strong stability,the spatial pattern evolution has strong integration and transfer inertia,and the path dependence and locking characteristics are obvious;(3)Among the counties that were lifted out of poverty in 2019,the counties with high warning level of vulnerability to re-poverty were mainly distributed in the third quadrant of the Hu Huanyong-Botai line.These high warning level counties,together with the counties that lifted out of poverty in 2020,were identified as 322 “key monitoring counties for re-poverty monitoring” that still need to be supported after 2020;(4)In order to further clarify the direction of poverty reduction,the counties that have been lifted out of poverty can be divided into eight regional types: coordinated development area,vulnerability to natural re-poverty area,vulnerability to social re-poverty area,vulnerability to economic re-poverty area,vulnerability to natural and social re-poverty area,vulnerability to natural and economic re-poverty area,vulnerability to social and economic re-poverty area and compound vulnerability to re-poverty area;(5)The regional differentiation of regional vulnerability to re-poverty is formed by the combined effect of multiple factors,and the influence of regional GDP and elevation is prominent.There are certain differences in the core influencing factors at different scales.At the national scale,it is mainly affected by factors such as the level of economic development,transportation,social public services and natural geography environment.At the two regional scales of the east-central and the west,the common core significant influencing factors of vulnerability to re-poverty are regional economic development level,social public services and transportation conditions,etc.Among them,the western region is closely related to the natural geographical environmental factors such as precipitation,altitude,topography and air quality,while the impact of these natural geographical environmental factors is not obvious in the eastern and central regions.At the household level,taking the households who were registered as low-income and have out of poverty in typical former national poverty-stricken counties(Gulang County,Dafang County,Luanchuan County and Xinxian County)in the central and western regions as the research object,a livelihood vulnerability analysis framework is constructed.The multidimensional poverty relief index method,SPA method and quantile regression method are respectively used to carry out the multidimensional poverty extrication measurement and decomposition,vulnerability to re-poverty evaluation and early warning,and vulnerability to re-poverty influencing factors analysis of 1114 sample households.The results show that:(1)The sample households have basically achieved multi-dimensional poverty extrication,but high-quality poverty extrication households are relatively lacking.Overall,China’s targeted poverty alleviation has played a significant role in reducing the multi-dimensional poverty of poor households.Among them,the poverty extrication degree of households in the central region is higher than that in the West.The poverty extrication quality of households with earlier time of getting rid of poverty is generally higher than that of households with later time.The poverty extrication rate of households in the dimensions of livelihood capital and livelihood space are high,but in the dimension of livelihood motivation and livelihood risk are low;(2)The vulnerability to re-poverty of households is not high on the whole,but 20.92% of them are still at high warning level.In terms of the proportion of high-level warning households,the dimensions of livelihood capital and livelihood motivation are more vulnerable than the two dimensions of livelihood space and livelihood risk.The vulnerability of households in the western region was significantly higher than that in the central region.households who get out of poverty in the late years were more vulnerable to re-poverty than those who get out of poverty in the early years.The higher the degree of concurrent occupation of the poverty extrication households in the livelihood strategy,the lower degree of vulnerability to re-poverty;(3)According to the early warning of each livelihood dimension,the households with high warning level were divided into 3 categories and 14 sub-categories,and a typical case analysis was conducted.It is found that these groups generally have multi-dimensional vulnerability characteristics and complex livelihood obstacles;(4)The vulnerability to re-poverty of household is significantly correlated with the multidimensional poverty extrication ability of households,the age and education of the head household,the per capital net income of households,as well as other factors in the household livelihood factors except the per capita agricultural land area.The correlation of various influencing factors is different among farmers with different vulnerability degrees.In order to comprehensively consider regional and household factors and realize the organic combination of “surface” and “point”,this paper takes Xinxian County,Henan Province as a typical case to establish a system dynamics model of vulnerability to re-poverty including regional carrier factors,household subject factors and policy donor factors.The simulation results of the model show that:(1)From2020 to 2025,the vulnerability to re-poverty of Xinxian County will continue to decrease,and it is expected to decrease to 0.240 by 2025;(2)The development of regional transportation can reduce the cost of residents’ going out and transaction,widen the channels of family income,and then increase family income.This shows that regional factors,as external factors,will have an impact on family factors and thus affect the households vulnerability to re-poverty;(3)Five policy simulation schemes are set from three aspects of accelerating regional economy,promote family self motivation and strengthen the government’s guarantee of people’s livelihood.It is found that all options can reduce the degrees of vulnerability to re-poverty of household in different extent.Among them,the three schemes of increasing social security and employment expenditure,improving the self-development power of families and increasing medical and health expenditure have more obvious poverty prevention effects.On the basis of the above empirical research,this paper constructs a long-term mechanism system of precision poverty prevention suitable for China’s current poverty exit background and large-scale poverty alleviation system from three aspects of “accurate monitoring and early warning”,“accurate intervention and assistance”and “accurate supervision and assessment”.Among them,the monitoring and early warning mechanism defines the household and regional targets of re-poverty monitoring and early warning,monitoring data collection and management,the construction of poverty-prevention monitoring and early warning big data integrated management platform under the multi-functional module and the process of re-poverty early warning,which are the basis and route direction of anti-poverty action;The intervention and assistance mechanism puts forward the Trinity blocking path of “subject empowerment,donor coordination and carrier reconstruction”,which is the response and feedback of monitoring and early warning;The supervision and assessment mechanism points out the direction of further improving the responsibility supervision and assessment of precision poverty prevention,and ensures the effective operation of the process of monitoring,early warning and intervention and assistance.From the perspective of vulnerability,the paper reveals the characteristics of China’s vulnerability to re-poverty from regional and family levels,and then integrates regional,family and policy factors to carry out simulation analysis on the vulnerability to re-poverty in typical region,and on this basis,builds an accurate poverty prevention early warning mechanism system.This study is helpful to comprehensively grasp the vulnerability degree and characteristics of poverty-stricken areas and families after they get out of poverty and deeply explain the mechanism of re-poverty in the vast rural areas after poverty withdrawal in China.The research results can provide a decision-making reference for improving the monitoring,early warning and assistance mechanism system for the re-poverty,and promoting the effective connection between poverty alleviation achievements and Rural Revitalization at the present stage.