| Since modern times,human society has experienced the age of steam,the age of electricity and the age of information,and now is entering the age of intelligence.The intelligent revolution has become a new centurial opportunity for all countries in the world.After reform and opening-up,China has achieved great economic success and become the largest manufacturing country and the second largest economy,but there is still a big gap between China and developed countries.The 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward the "two-step" strategy for the new era,which requires high-quality development of China’s economy.However,since 2012,China’s economic development has entered a “new normal”,with declining economic growth rate,serious structural problems and difficulty in shifting economic growth drivers.To make matters worse,the US started a trade war against China in 2018.Since then the strategic containment and technological blockade to China have been intensifying by the US and its allies.It’s clear that high-quality development is the key to escaping dilemmas of the "new normal" and realizing the "two-step" strategy,and that innovation is the key to high-quality development.R&D efficiency is an important measure of innovation ability,and intellectual property protection(IPP)is an important means to promote innovation.This thesis mainly studies China’s economic development issues related to IPP and R&D efficiency based on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model with endogenous growth.Firstly,the thesis discusses the endogenous growth mechanism,steady state and detrending method of DSGE models with endogenous growth.Then,based on the domestic economic cycle,the thesis establishes a two-sector DSGE model with endogenous growth by characterizing the knowledge interaction between innovative firms and imitative firms.In the model,innovative firms and imitative firms hire R&D labors to accumulate knowledge and utilize knowledge,respectively,and the corresponding efficiency of these two R&D processes is called innovation efficiency and application efficiency.Imitative firms don’t accumulate knowledge,but they can acquire knowledge of innovative firms in two ways,paying for the right to use knowledge or free access to spillover knowledge.Strengthening IPP will increase the proportion of paid knowledge by imitative firms to the total knowledge stock.Lastly,employing this model and China’s macroeconomic data since 2012 for calibration or Bayesian estimation,this thesis studies three issues related to economic development:(1)the macroeconomic impact of strengthening IPP,and the difference between the IPP policy and the R&D-expense pre-tax deduction policy;(2)the overall impact of R&D efficiency shocks and the heterogeneity,as well as the role of IPP under these shocks;(3)China’s economic fluctuations under the “new normal”,and the contribution of R&D efficiency shocks.The main conclusions of the thesis are as follows:(1)Strengthening IPP encourages knowledge accumulation by innovative firms and accelerates long-term growth in TFP and output;but it crowds out R&D labors in imitative firms and decreases their knowledge utilization rate,thus generating short-term negative impacts on aggregate output and employment.(2)The government faces a trade-off when strengthening IPP: the faster the IPP improves,the faster the knowledge,the TFP,and the output grows in the long run,but the larger the negative short-run impacts on output and employment.(3)R&D-expense pre-tax deduction policies cannot replace IPP improvement.(4)Positive innovation efficiency shocks not only accelerate the growth of TFP and aggregate output by encouraging knowledge accumulation activities of innovative firms,but also facilitate the development of imitative firms in the medium and long term.(5)Positive application efficiency shocks increase short-term TFP and short-term aggregate output by improving knowledge utilization of imitative firms,but in the medium and long term,decrease TFP and aggregate output and inhibit the development of both types of firms as slowing down knowledge accumulation of innovative firms.(6)A short-term economic prosperity driven by application efficiency shocks may undermine economic growth potential,a risk that can be effectively avoided by strengthening IPP.(7)After Bayesian estimation,the model can well explain the real data,including the data not used for estimation,such as TFP growth rate and China IPP index.(8)Innovation efficiency shocks and application efficiency shocks are the most important sources of fluctuations,and the two types of R&D efficiency shocks explain most of the fluctuations in GDP growth rate and TFP growth rate during the estimation period.(9)The decline of innovation efficiency is the main reason for the decline of China’s economic growth rate in recent years,but the innovation efficiency tends to be stable after 2018,implying that China’s economy has been close to or reached a stabilization stage;From the perspective of productivity,the decline of TFP growth rate is the main reason for the decline of China’s economic growth rate in recent years,while the decline of knowledge growth rate is the main reason for the decline of TFP growth rate.The thesis is innovative to some extent in many aspects.In terms of model setting,it is an important innovation to allow imitative firms to acquire knowledge of innovative firms in two ways,which makes the model not only applicable to the research on IPP,but also convenient to the related research on intellectual property transaction.In terms of model estimation,the thesis takes the lead in using the data on China’s R&D expenditure,technological transformation expenditure and technology purchase expenditure to carry out Bayesian estimation,so as to identify the two types of R&D efficiency shocks and IPP shocks,overcoming the identification problem in Anzoategui et al.(2019).Noteworthily,the above innovations extend the scarce domestic literature on DSGE models with endogenous growth.In terms of research content,the thesis breaks the concept of "statically optimal IPP" emphasized by domestic literatures,and instead emphasizes the dynamic trade-off between shortterm negative output effects and long-term positive growth effects in the process of strengthening IPP.The thesis also innovatively points that a short-term boom driven by application efficiency shocks may undermine economic growth potential,which is an important phenomenon in development economics yet having not been focused on.Following the conclusions,the thesis suggests that the government should also pay attention to the brain drain in the frontier fields of science and technology besides the application of technology.Secondly,the government should actively strengthen IPP and handle the pace of IPP improvement.Thirdly,for accelerating technological progress,the government should continue to enlarge the number of R&D personnel and introduce advanced technology,as well as make efforts to improve the scientific research environment,talent quality and project management.In the long run,it is necessary to continuously create an atmosphere of advocating innovation,and to transform exam-oriented education into an education that encourages questioning,exploration,invention and creation.Fourthly,the government should provide better services for patent transfer in order to promote technology application,for example,establishing and improving the market for patented technologies. |
PDF Full Text Request