Research On Flexible Contract And Risk Sharing Mechanism Of PPP

Quality and quantity of infrastructure is closely connected with the economic development of a country,along with the progress of new type of urbanization level in our country as well as the level of economic development of our country has entered the new normal,the public demand for high quality public products and services more and more urgent,so the government and social capital cooperation mode(PPP)become the inevitable choice.Public-private Partnerships(PPP)model is a risk-sharing and benefit-sharing model established by the government and social capital parties based on contracts.As a new financing mode of urban infrastructure construction,PPP can well relieve the financial pressure of the government and improve the operation efficiency of infrastructure projects.However,as can be seen from the cases of PPP projects at home and abroad in recent years,many PPP projects will inevitably face financing risks,government credit risks,social environment conflict risks,etc.,so many projects will be forced to interrupt or ultimately fail.Therefore,the PPP project risk sharing and flexible mechanism discussed in this paper play an important role in the high-quality development of PPP projects.Firstly,this study sorted out domestic and foreign literatures on risk sharing and flexible mechanism of PPP projects,clarified the concept of PPP projects,sources and characteristics of project risks,as well as the overview of flexibility and flexible contract,and understood the progress and status quo of domestic and foreign researches on flexible contract and project risk of PPP projects.On this basis,it expounds the public goods theory,project differentiation theory,contract theory and principal-agent theory related to PPP,and proves the necessity of the development of PPP model in China.Through the elaboration of game theory and evolutionary game theory,the rationality and applicability of game model applied to PPP project risk sharing are proved.In addition,this paper summarizes the detailed development of China from the introduction of PPP model until now,and divides it into six development stages.They are the exploration stage(1978-1991),pilot stage(1992-2002),development stage(2003-2007),adjustment stage(2008-2012),popularization stage(2013-2017)and specification stage(2018-present).It also summarizes the development of THE PPP model in Britain,Australia and Canada,so as to draw lessons from the experience and provide reference for the development of China’s PPP project.On the basis of full reading of domestic and foreign literatures and many PPP project case studies,this paper summarizes the risk sharing principle,risk sharing subject,risk sharing supervision and risk sharing framework of PPP project.In addition,in the study of the PPP project flexible mechanisms,most of the literature focuses on the study of adaptive terms later,have engaged in the former incentive Angle respectively,the paper discusses the PPP project construction stage and operation stage of the flexible mechanism,especially the construction of the flexible investment mechanism,social capital should enjoy flexible time,investment scale,investment and the transfer of equity rights.The flexible mechanism of operation stage is elaborated from six aspects:government subsidy mechanism,profit and risk sharing mechanism,flexible concession period adjustment mechanism,price adjustment mechanism,equity change and exit mechanism,and renegotiation mechanism.Secondly,through the full identification of PPP project risks,this paper divides PPP project risks into government-level risks,market-level risks and project-level risks,and on this basis,uses multi-value set qualitative comparative analysis(MV-QCA)to systematically analyze the risks of PPP projects.Based on the principle of similarity and diversity,33 typical PPP project cases are selected,and fM-QCA software is used to analyze the single risk variable and risk configuration respectively,and the importance ranking of PPP project risk factors is obtained.On the basis of risk identification,this paper uses bargaining dynamic game model and evolutionary game model to study the risk sharing of PPP project risk.Bargaining dynamic game model of complete information and incomplete information is discussed respectively under the two kinds of state government and social capital under different bid order optimal risk allocation proportion,and compare different cases of risk sharing proportion,that offer is first-mover advantage of one party,and the higher the degree of public information,The higher the enthusiasm of social capital to participate in PPP projects.Based on the hypothesis of bounded rationality,the evolutionary game model is designed,and some factors such as government regulation and speculative behavior of social capital are introduced.Matlab software is used to conduct numerical simulation analysis on the model.Fin ally,the evolutionary trajectories leading to the ideal state under different conditions are obtained,and these evolutionary traj ectories are analyzed.Finally,by using the above methods of multi-value set qualitative comparative analysis(MV-QCA)and dynamic game model to study the risk identification and risk sharing of PPP projects,it is found that the government’s financial capacity,financial financing environment and government reputation and other factors have a great impact on the development of PPP projects.T herefore,this paper collects the panel data of 31 provinces and municipalities from 2015 to 2020,adopts the panel Tobit model to conduct empirical analysis on the data,and studies the influence of these core factors on the investment and transaction of PPP projects from the perspective of econometric model and data quantification.According to the data availability and data,the meaning of the core factors for government debt,financial development level and the government fiscal transparency,in addition,also joined the government debt ratio squared to explore nonlinear relation,and government debt ratio and the financial development level of interaction to explore financial environment and regulation between the government’s financial burden.Considering the different development levels of different regions in China,this paper also divides 31 provinces and municipalities into three regions,namely eastern,western and central China,and tests the regional heterogeneity.The results show that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the investment and tran saction of PPP projects and the government debt ratio.There is a significant positive correlation between financial transparency and government;And the degree of financial development has a significant positive correlation;It is worth mentioning that the interaction coefficient of financial development degree and government debt ratio is significantly negative,indicating that the financial burden of the government will weaken the positive promoting effect of financial development degree on THE transaction of PPP projects,while a good financial environment can alleviate the negative effect of excessive financial burden on the transaction of PPP projects.This study enriches and improves the flexible mechanism framework and risk sharing framework system of PPP projects,provides theoretical guidance and reference for reducing the overall risk of PPP projects,developing PPP projects with high quality and efficiency,and provides a new idea for the risk sharing of PPP projects.In addition,based on the above qualitative and quantitative analysis of PPP project risk factors,relevant policy recommendations are given at the end of this study.