Study On Fluctuation And Influencing Factors Of Cotton Production In Xinjiang

As an important cash crop and strategic material,cotton is in a more important strategic position in the whole country and even in the world.Xinjiang is the largest commodity cotton base in China.By the end of 2020,the cotton planting area and output in Xinjiang accounted for 78.93% and 87.33% of the national total respectively.With the gradual decline of inland cotton areas,the strategic position and role of Xinjiang cotton in China’s cotton industry have become increasingly prominent.Fully understanding the significance of the stable development of Xinjiang’s cotton industry and meeting the demand of China’s textile industry for cotton is not only related to the orderly operation of cotton and cotton textile industry chain,but also related to the adjustment and optimization of agricultural structure in traditional cotton areas in the Mainland.In order to ensure the safety of national grain and cotton industry,enhance the international competitiveness of textiles and even promote the stable development of economy,it is of great academic value and practical significance to study the fluctuation law and influencing factors of cotton production in Xinjiang.In this thesis,we take Xinjiang cotton production fluctuation as the research object,based on the combing of previous studies,the theoretical framework of cotton production fluctuation is constructed,which consists of three main bodies(cotton farmers,cotton consumers and factor suppliers),two major markets(product and factor markets)and two major mechanisms(internal transmission mechanism and external impact mechanism).According to the theoretical framework and hypothesis to be tested,the characteristics,trends and causes of cotton production fluctuations in Xinjiang are analyzed.Then,it makes an empirical analysis of the main factors that affect the fluctuation of cotton in Xinjiang,and focuses on the analysis of the influence of technological innovation,institutional change and policy adjustment in different historical stages of cotton production in Xinjiang.And put forward some countermeasures and suggestions to promote the sustainable and high-quality development of cotton in Xinjiang.The main conclusions of this thesis are as follows:First,about the main characteristics of cotton fluctuation in Xinjiang: since the establishment of Xinjiang Autonomous Region,cotton production in Xinjiang has generally shown an upward trend of fluctuation,which is manifested in the fluctuation of planting area,yield per unit area and total output.At the same time,the fluctuation frequency of cotton production in Xinjiang is relatively low,the overall fluctuation intensity is relatively small,and the fluctuation intensity of cotton production gradually decreases.From the perspective of variety structure,the production of long-staple cotton shows a fluctuating downward trend,and it is mainly concentrated in Aksu area in southern Xinjiang.Secondly,the comparison of price elasticity and cost-benefit of cotton in Xinjiang: By measuring the price elasticity of cotton supply and demand in Xinjiang from 1991 to 2019,it is found that the absolute value of supply and demand elasticity of cotton in Xinjiang is within 0.2 in most years,which indicates that both demand and supply of cotton in Xinjiang lack elasticity;And in many years,the elasticity of supply is less than the elasticity of demand,so the theory of "divergent cobweb" of agricultural products is not applicable to explain the fluctuation of cotton production in China and Xinjiang.Cost-benefit comparison shows that the fluctuation of cotton production income in Xinjiang mainly comes from the fluctuation of absolute income of cotton production,and the fluctuation of relative income of cotton production has no significant or small influence on the fluctuation of cotton production in Xinjiang.Since 2013,the coupling level between fluctuation of cotton production in Xinjiang and ecological benefits of cotton production in Xinjiang has entered the stage of high-quality coordinated development.Thirdly,the overall analysis of the influencing factors of cotton production fluctuation in Xinjiang: the analysis of the formation mechanism of cotton production fluctuation in Xinjiang shows that the elasticity of cotton supply price in Xinjiang is small,which indicates that the fluctuation of cotton market price is not the main factor affecting the fluctuation of cotton production in Xinjian.By using cointegration and vector error correction model,this thesis makes an overall analysis of the influencing factors of cotton production fluctuation in Xinjiang,and further confirms that the main factors of cotton production fluctuation in Xinjiang come from three aspects: technological innovation,institutional change and policy regulation,and these three factors cause the periodic fluctuation of cotton production in Xinjiang by influencing the cost and price of cotton production.The replacement of old and new technologies and the reform of agricultural management system have a transition period and an adaptation period,which will have a negative impact on the fluctuation of cotton production during the transition period;Before and after the policy adjustment,it has a significant impact on the fluctuation of cotton production,while the implementation period of the policy has a limited impact on the fluctuation of cotton production.Technological innovation has the most significant long-term effect on cotton production.Fourthly,the influence of technological innovation on the fluctuation of cotton production in Xinjiang:on the one hand,technological innovation has a positive effect on the fluctuation of cotton production,and the quantity and application of technological innovation have a positive effect on the fluctuation of cotton production;On the other hand,the influence of technological innovation on production fluctuation may be heterogeneous.The influence of technological innovation quantity and application on production fluctuation first rises and then falls,while the effect on total factor productivity continues to increase.A conclusion is drawn that technological innovation(progress)does not always promote the growth of cotton production,and it may also cause the decrease of cotton production in a specific stage and period,thus leading to the cyclical fluctuation of cotton production.A reasonable economic explanation is that when a certain technological innovation is characterized by "broad spectrum",it has a positive promoting effect on all crops’ income,but the promoting effect of this technology on cotton’s income may be less than that of other crops,and it is in a relatively inferior position,resulting in the substitution effect of dominant crops and the reduction of cotton sown area,thus causing the fluctuation of cotton production.Fifthly,the impact of institutional change on the fluctuation of cotton production in Xinjiang: The history of agricultural management system change and related institutional changes in Xinjiang,as well as the main characteristics of cotton production fluctuation in the corresponding historical stage of institutional change are sorted out.Through grey correlation analysis,the relationship between them is explored,and the impact of institutional change on cotton production fluctuation in Xinjiang is explained.The research shows that from 1978 to 2019,the fluctuation of cotton production in Xinjiang was significantly affected by the change of rural economic system.On the whole,the rural financial system,tax and fee system and price system have greatly promoted the cotton output in Xinjiang by promoting the enthusiasm of cotton farmers,increasing the space for cotton farmers to increase their income and the price-oriented mechanism.With the deepening of the socialist market economy reform in China,the institutional arrangements related to perfecting the market mechanism have become effective measures to affect the cotton output in Xinjiang.Due to the low degree of marketization of rural finance,the slow development of township enterprises and the lag of institutional supply,the contribution effect to cotton production in Xinjiang is insufficient,which forms a certain block to cotton production in Xinjiang.Sixthly,the influence of policy adjustment on the fluctuation of cotton production in Xinjiang: Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China,China has successively implemented a series of supporting policies,such as cotton purchase and sale policy,sliding duties and quota system reform,improved seed subsidy,reserve cotton policy and target price policy.Using VAR model,this thesis empirically analyzes the effect of cotton price support policy on cotton business scale and cost.According to the empirical analysis,the cotton price support policy and the selling price of cotton are Granger reasons for cotton business scale and production cost per mu,respectively,indicating that the cotton price support policy has an indirect and significant impact on cotton cost and business scale mainly by influencing domestic cotton sales price,among which it has a significant positive impact on cotton business scale in Xinjiang and a significant negative impact on production cost per mu.According to the cost variance decomposition of cotton business scale and production cost fluctuation,compared with the impact of cotton selling price and variables themselves,the impact of price support policy is smaller,which fully reflects the decisive role of the market in resource allocation.Based on the above conclusions,some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to promote the sustainable and highquality development of cotton in Xinjiang: First,strengthen the technical innovation and popularization of cotton production,adhere to the technical demand orientation,pay attention to the effectiveness and rationality of technical innovation,reduce the cost of technical innovation and popularization,and provide scientific and technological support for the sustainable and high-quality development of cotton in Xinjiang;Second,improve the market-related institutional arrangements,speed up the cultivation of new cotton business entities,promote the market mechanism to play its regulatory role in the cotton industry,improve the efficiency of resource allocation,encourage large cotton growers,cotton professional cooperatives,cotton purchase and sale processing enterprises to deeply participate in the development and cooperation of the whole cotton industry chain,and accelerate the leap and upgrading of cotton industrialization;Third,improve the protection and policy support system of cotton industry in Xinjiang,speed up the practice and exploration in the aspects of "counter-measure" policy,"box transfer" policy,price support policy and "cotton futures+insurance" policy,and give full play to the policy regulation function to provide policy support for the sustained and high-quality development of cotton in Xinjiang;Fourth,strengthen the overall planning,coordination and cooperation of cotton technology,system and policy,and jointly promote the modernization and high-quality development of cotton production in Xinjiang.