Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus,the epidemic is still raging around the world.The COVID-19 has led many countries and regions to introduce various public health interventions to reduce the flow of people to reduce the infection rate.According to the World Bank 2021 Report,the world economy has experienced its biggest negative growth in four decades.China has also been deeply affected by the epidemic,with its economic growth and social development greatly affected.At present,the epidemic is basically under control in China,but the epidemic is still localized in some regions,and the prevention and control situation is still very serious.The epidemic continues to spread and mutate globally.At the same time,we have just made some achievements in the fight against poverty.However,under the influence of many factors,the phenomenon of poor people returning to poverty repeatedly has aroused the widespread attention of the society and the government.For a long time,poverty has been a topic that countries must face directly in the process of economic development.The Party and the state have always paid great attention to poverty alleviation.In recent years,China has formed a multi-sectoral joint poverty alleviation pattern,and by 2020,China has achieved total poverty alleviation.However,according to the "poverty trap" theory,poor people have the problem of low level of income equilibrium.Even if the poor people deviate from the equilibrium due to policy reasons in the short term,they will gradually return to the low level of equilibrium in the long term because the human capital of education and health is difficult to change significantly in the short term.Public health interventions and economic downturns continue to contribute to poverty on a global scale,particularly in the context of external shocks such as outbreaks of COVID-19.Against the background of the epidemic,it is more important for rural households in the areas that have just been lifted out of poverty to pay attention to how to achieve long-term poverty alleviation and avoid the vicious cycle of falling into poverty again due to the impact of the epidemic.Therefore,this paper analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on poverty-stricken households based on an in-depth study on their return to poverty and from the perspective of the impact of COVID-19.Through theoretical analysis and empirical model,this paper takes individual micro-data of Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture as samples to study the impact of epidemic impact on households out of poverty,mechanism and policy path,aims to systematically study the long-term poverty alleviation in the context of epidemic impact,and systematically answer whether the epidemic impact will make households out of poverty in China return to poverty.If so,what is the mechanism? What policies can be adopted to ease the impact of the epidemic on those who have been lifted out of poverty?First of all,this paper systematically analyzes the problem of poverty alleviation under the COVID-19 epidemic by integrating the poverty trap theory,population mobility theory,human capital theory and other relevant theories.The poverty trap theory provides effective theoretical support for the poverty alleviation households.The return of the poverty-stricken households means that the poverty-stricken households fall into the poverty trap again due to the interference of some factors,indicating that the farmers’ sustained power of poverty alleviation is weak.Under the support of scientific theories,this paper conducted a systematic analysis based on the existing research and development status,and tested the impact of epidemic impact on poverty reduction through the establishment of a differential model.Then,from the perspective of the impact of epidemic impact on population flow,the mediating mechanism of the impact of epidemic impact on the return to poverty was studied.The impact of epidemic impact to a large extent limited the impact of population flow on the quality of employment,and then caused the mismatch of human resources.Taking population flow as an intermediary mechanism can reflect the effect of epidemic impact on the return to poverty in a more scientific way.Considering the important role of human capital in poverty alleviation,the moderating role of human capital of education and human capital of health is further analyzed.Finally,from the five aspects of targeted poverty alleviation policy,it analyzes the adjustment effect of different poverty alleviation measures on the basic influencing mechanism.This study mainly adopts theoretical analysis,systematic analysis,logical explanation,empirical research and other methods to analyze the impact of the epidemic on the poverty alleviation households and the mechanism of action.The main contributions are as follows: First,the epidemic impact was innovatively taken as an exogenous variable,and the income level of the poverty-stricken households in the year in which the samples were obtained was taken as the benchmark to identify whether the poverty-stricken households were returning to poverty.The epidemic impact and the poverty-stricken households were included in a unified analytical framework to test the logical relationship between them.Secondly,the theory of poverty trap is taken as the main theoretical basis of this paper,and the factors influencing the return of poverty-stricken households are systematically analyzed.The impact of the epidemic will increase the probability of the return of poverty-stricken households by affecting the flow of population.At the same time,different levels of regional human capital may have different effects on the return of poverty-stricken households.Thirdly,this paper argues that policy assistance is an important means to solve the problem of poverty alleviation,and the implementation effectiveness of different help policies is different.The main research context of this paper can be divided into 8 chapters.The first chapter is the introduction of this paper.The main content of this part is the question raised.The second chapter is the concept definition and literature review.Firstly,it defines the relevant concepts of the research object,combs the main research literature related to this paper and makes a comprehensive analysis of the relevant theoretical research,which lays the foundation for the research content of this paper.The third chapter,by exploring the evolution of China’s poverty problem and poverty alleviation policies,understands the poverty alleviation policies China has experienced since the reform and opening up.At the same time,it expounds the current situation of the epidemic impact and the phenomenon of returning to poverty in China,finds the existing problems and makes a preliminary descriptive analysis of the epidemic and the phenomenon of poverty trap in China.In addition,with the data of poverty-stricken households in Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture,Sichuan Province,various indicators of poverty-stricken households before and after the outbreak of COVID-19 were compared and analyzed,and the situation of poverty-stricken households in Liangshan Prefecture after the outbreak of COVID-19 was preliminarily understood.The fourth chapter is the theoretical analysis of China’s poverty-stricken households under the impact of the epidemic.In this part,the poverty trap theory,human capital theory,population mobility theory and relative poverty theory are firstly combed and elaborated.Based on these theories,this paper makes a theoretical analysis of the impact of the poverty-stricken households in China under the impact of the epidemic,and makes an in-depth theoretical mechanism analysis of the poverty-stricken households under the impact of the epidemic from the perspective of population flow and human capital.The fifth chapter is the empirical test part.This part selects the micro-sample data of Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture in Sichuan Province of China to analyze the phenomenon of poverty return before and after the epidemic by establishing the two-stage difference model,the differential differential model,the PSM-DID and IPW-DID models,the binary selection model and the regulating effect model.The causal inference framework was used to identify the impact of the pandemic on the return to poverty and income of the poverty-stricken households.In addition,on the basis of baseline analysis,this chapter conducts robustness tests by means of parallel trend test,placebo test and model replacement,and analyzes the moderating effects of health human capital and education human capital,namely the heterogeneous impact of the epidemic impact on the poverty-alleviation households with different health and education human capital.In Chapter 6,from the perspective of population flow,the influence mechanism of poverty-alleviation households returning to poverty under the background of the epidemic was analyzed by using out-of-home work and rural farming as the intermediary variables.Also,the heterogeneous transmission effect of population flow mechanism was also investigated from the perspective of poverty-alleviation households with different health and education human capital.Chapter 7,based on the perspective of poverty alleviation policies,analyzes the moderating effects of poverty alleviation policies such as education,health,financial,social and industrial assistance,and compares the policy effects of different assistance policies,aiming at seeking effective policy paths for poor households to return to poverty under the background of epidemic impact.The eighth chapter gives the appropriate policy suggestions according to the theoretical analysis and empirical test results.Based on the above research background and context,this paper selects two periods of data in Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture,Sichuan Province in 2019 and 2021.Based on theoretical analysis,the two-period difference model,DID model,PSM-DID model,IPW-DID model,Logit model and Probit model are constructed.This paper makes suggestions on the influence between the impact of the epidemic and the phenomenon of returning to poverty,and explores the mediating role that the poverty-stricken households play in migrant work and rural farming.In addition,based on the perspectives of human capital of health,human capital of education and different poverty alleviation policies,it explores the heterogeneous influence and countermeasures.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: First,in terms of "what",the impact of the epidemic has a negative impact on the return of poverty-stricken households.The higher the impact intensity of the epidemic,the greater the negative impact on the return of poverty-stricken households.Under the impact of the epidemic,the work of poverty-stricken households is affected,which leads to their return to poverty.Under the two-phase difference model,the probability of poor households returning to poverty before the epidemic was 2.3%,and after the epidemic,the probability of poor households returning to poverty was 37.6%.Under the differential model,the probability of poor households returning to poverty increased by 5.44% for each additional person infected by the epidemic.Second,in terms of "why",the impact of the epidemic can affect the return of poverty-stricken households to poverty through the mechanism of migrant work.The impact of the epidemic will prevent the poverty-stricken households from going out to work,resulting in a large number of poverty-stricken households having to stay in the countryside to work in agriculture.Therefore,affected by the epidemic,fewer people go out for work and more people stay in rural areas to work in agriculture,leading to a decline in the income level of poverty-stricken households,which has become an important path for poverty-stricken households to return to poverty under the influence of the epidemic.Thirdly,on the question of "who is affected",there is a significant moderating effect between health human capital and education human capital on the impact of the epidemic and the return of poverty alleviation households.Heterogeneity analysis results show that poverty alleviation households with low education human capital and low health human capital are more affected by the epidemic.This heterogeneity is also reflected through the intermediary mechanism of migrant work and rural farming.Fourth,on the question of "how to do",different support policies have a significant moderating effect on the return of households out of poverty under the impact of the epidemic.Education,health,financial,social and industrial support can significantly regulate the return of households out of poverty,and have a positive moderating effect on the income of households out of poverty.But the effect of public jobs on poverty alleviation is small.In terms of policy comparison,financial assistance and industrial assistance under the impact of the epidemic have the greatest impact on the poverty alleviation households,followed by health and education assistance.The government should focus more poverty alleviation efforts on financial assistance and industrial assistance. |