| Numerous literature studies on China’s economic growth accounting show that after reform and opening up,the driving force of China’s economy is mainly investment-driven,and with the development of reform and opening up,investmentdriven contributions to economic growth are increasing.It is the decline of TFP contribution rate.Exploring the reasons behind the investment drive will help to understand my country’s past economic growth more comprehensively and provide guidance and reference for future economic growth policy practices.Starting from the government’s fiscal behavior,this paper studies the impact of the local government’s land finance model on economic growth after the tax-sharing system reform,the policy practice of land finance and the impact of land finance on the innovation of long-term economic growth momentum.Focus on the following five aspects.First,comprehensively sort out the development process of land finance,and find the causes and development drivers,core mechanisms and influencing factors of land finance from the perspective of actual policy evolution.Second,from an empirical point of view,examine the motivation and characteristics of land finance development.Specifically,three main factors of land finance,economic growth and financial dilemma are considered in a system equation,and the interactions,as well as the regional and time-varying characteristics of these interactions,are systematically examined.Third,considering the impact of land finance on the overall savings rate of the society,starting from the neoclassical growth model,the relationship between land finance and economic growth is systematically analyzed from the long-term and shortterm perspectives.Fourth,from the perspective of New Keynesian dynamic general equilibrium,this paper makes an in-depth study on the core mechanism of land finance and land supply policy.At present,under the new economic normal state,land resources are becoming increasingly scarce.When land resources are constrained,the operation mechanism of land finance will inevitably change.This article also conducts an indepth study on the economic effects of land finance mechanism under this situation.Fifth,the relationship between land finance and economic growth has been proved by most documents,but the relationship between land finance and innovation has not yet received the attention it deserves.This paper studies the relationship between land finance and innovation of high-tech enterprises,so as to get the Enlightenment of the relationship between land finance and long-term economic development.The answers to the above questions correspond to the contents of Chapters 2 to 5of the article.Chapters 1 and 2 used the latest and authoritative Chinese economic data currently widely used(from Chang,Chen,Waggoner and Zha,2016)and some data from some statistical yearbooks to find typical facts related to land finance.And we also summarized the historical background and development motivation of land finance based on previous studies,and conducted an empirical test based on provincial panel data.The third chapter theoretically focused on the economic growth effect of land finance through Solow growth model that includes land finance mechanism,and conducts relevant empirical tests.Chapter 4 builds the NK-DSGE model that includes the land financial mechanism based on the existing macro-DSGE literature of land finance,and makes an in-depth study of land financial operation mechanism,land supply policy,and land financial model under the new normal state.The fifth chapter studies the relationship between land price and high-tech enterprise innovation,and discovers the intermediary way of this influence through the study of intermediary effect.The main conclusions of this article are as follows: First,although the tax-sharing system reform has concentrated the revenue to the central government,it has clarified the distribution of revenue between the central and local governments,and remained the expenditure structure between central and local governments basically unchanged.In essence,it is a reform of fiscal decentralization.The cause of land finance is not determined by a single factor.Growth pressure and fiscal gap are both the factors that promote its development,and the influence of different factors varies greatly in different regions and at different times.Second,land finance has boosted the short-term and long-term economic development.Both short-term and long-term economic development can not be separated from the direct external drive of government productive expenditure.The greater the externality of government investment and the greater the expenditure multiplier,the greater the ability of land finance contributes to the economic development.While keeping the supply structure unchanged,the increase in the total amount of land has a positive effect on per capita output.The structure of land supply has an inverted U-shaped impact on per capita output.This structural factor has experienced an inverted U-shaped right to the left of the middle to the left of China’s per capita output.Fourth,the transmission mechanism of land finance lies on the land market.Exogenous economic shocks to the government and the entrepreneurial sector have an impact on government investment and entrepreneurs’ financing constraints,and then on social production and consumption through the transmission mechanism.The endogenous land supply policy has an important stabilizing effect on output and employment.Government expenditure has achieved outstanding results in underpinning economic development and stabilizing private investment,and has become an important force in maintaining economic growth and stable employment.Fifth,under the new normal state of the economy,when land resources are constrained,the operating mechanism of land finance has changed dramatically.Under favorable shocks,the economic system will oscillate periodically,accompanied by the high level of social debt and the high leverage ratio for a long time.When unfavorable shock occurs,the land fiscal mechanism becomes a stabilizer for economic development.Therefore,the macro-control policies are faced with the dual dilemma of economic development and deleveraging,economic development and housing speculation.The innovations of this article are as follows: First,based on a large number of existing literature,this paper makes a detailed research and typical fact analysis on the background and development motivation of land finance,and obtains an objective and comprehensive understanding of land finance.Second,using the provincial panel data,a simultaneous equation model including the three links among land finance,growth pressure and fiscal gap is constructed,which avoids the potential endogeneity problem.At the same time,a sub-sample regression was carried out from the region and time period,and the typical regional and time-varying characteristics of land finance were found.Thirdly,the micro land data is used to construct the variables of land supply structure,which is integrated with the urban panel data to study the relationship between land finance and its structure and economic growth.Fourth,based on the facts of land finance and the previous literature,this paper proposes a production function that includes land supply structure and industrial structure,and builds a macrotheoretical model,and conducts a theoretical analysis of the economic effects and transmission mechanism of land finance.Fifth,based on the classic DSGE literature of land finance,the NK-DSGE model including land finance is constructed.The model takes into account the reality that land cannot be depreciated,the structural supply of land,and the characteristics of the New Keynesian model,making the setting of the model more trustable.Sixth,this article creatively uses occasional binding constraints to capture the reality of scarcity of land resources under the background of the new normal state,and analyzes the economic effects of the land supply structure under the new normal state.Seventh,the impact of two types of land prices on the innovation of high-tech enterprises is studied innovatively.Based on the strict analysis of the intermediary effect,the intermediary way of the impact of land price on innovation is obtained. |
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