| Since reform and opening up 30 years, China maintained high-speed economic growth nearly 10% per year, but also experienced a number of macroeconomic ups and downs. What are the characteristics of China's macro-economic fluctuations? What are the reasons of China's economic fluctuations? This study attempts to answer these two questions.This paper is under a dynamic general equilibrium framework of a random manner,began in 1980's,which has been great successful in the study of economic fluctuations and the mainstream of economic fluctuations approach in developed countries In order to stand on the shoulders of giants to study China's economic fluctuations, Chapter 2 of this article provides an overview of the latest developments of the theory of economic fluctuations developed from the theoryThe premise of explaining the causes of China's economic fluctuations is to Sum up the characteristics of China's economic fluctuations.Chapter 3 explains China's major macroeconomic variables for time series decomposition by the HP filter, BP filter, reflects the volatility of economic fluctuations such as visco-holders by obtaining the cycle component sequence, calculating the second-order moment of these variable characteristics. Specifically, the static characteristics include:(1) the volatility of consumption is 50% of output fluctuations,less than the volatility of output,indicating smoothing consumption of the Chinese residents. In the composition of consumption, the urban consumption and rural consumption fluctuations in the same for 0.04. (2) the investment is more volatile than the volatility of output, the inventory investment is the largest among the compositions of investment about 7 times output volatility.The real estate investment is also significant about 3 times output fluctuations. (3) the fluctuations of import and export is more volatile than the output, the fluctuations of the volatility of imports and exports, as well as net exports are greater than the volatility of output, the volatility of imports and exports is about 2-fold fluctuations in GDP, net exports fluctuations is nearly 5 times output volatility. (4) output has a hold of the stick, the two adjacent correlation coefficient of 0.58. (5) the majority of economic variables with a total output of high mobility of capital, consumption, investment, imports and exports and other economic variables have a strong cis-cycle characteristics, and the relevance of the above is 0.7 in the same period At the same time, this article also use SVAR method to break down the impact of technology and monetary shocks and financial shocks on the dynamic effects of China's economy. The main features of these developments include:(1) the relative importance of the three types of shocks to fluctuations of output. When the three shocks is simultaneous, the contribution of technology shocks is dominant, more than 80%,to the output fluctuations during the observation period. At the beginning technology shocks impact on output has been achieved in the initial 83.5 percent, and increased gradually over time,reached 98.2% in 25 period. The impact of money supply has less effect on output, monetary expansion are neutral on output fluctuations. The impact of government expenditure on output is the greatest, the initial contribution rate is 16.4 percent, followed by a gradual reduction,in 25 period less than 1%. The impact of government expenditure in the demand shock is the greatest impact on output, the contribution of demand shocks account for 90% of the total contribution. (2) the relative importance of the three shocks on inflation fluctuations. From the two period, the contribution of technical impact on inflation is 65.3%, although there is a slight decrease in the third period, the subsequent stages basic remain stability level which is about 66%. the contribution rate of demand shocks on output in only 10%. The contribution demand shocks on inflation is much larger, around 35%.The contribution rate of currency impact is around 20%, while the the contribution rate of financial impact is about 15%.Chapter 4 to Chapter 6 of this article, respectively, review the ability of explaination to China's economic fluctuations of the five DSGE models. the first two models are the benchmark DSGE model, which don't impact the economy zoom mechanism, the latter hree models study the impact of different mechanism in China. Benchmark DSGE models include the basic real business cycle model (RBC model), the basic monetary model of the business cycle (MBC model), these two models do not carry any market factors; the latter three DSGE model is the expansion of benchmark DSGE model by adding three magnification mechanism-the name of viscous, the actual viscosity and financial accelerator. It was found that the basic RBC model and the basic MBC model can only copy static characteristics of real econominc fluctuations. MBC model is better than the others in explanatory power However, these two models in this article have great significance, they can serve as a model to observe the follow-up three for us, in order to determine specific effects of the different magnification mechanisms. If we add the name of the actual viscous and sticky in the the MBC model model, the explanatory power is not improved significantly compared with the basic the MBC model. Therefore,,the actual name of viscous and viscous fluctuations is not an important magnification mechanism in the Chinese economy. MBC added in the financial accelerator, can reproduce fluctuations in the economy of China's dynamic characteristics, so the financial accelerator is an important mechanism to enlarge China's economic fluctuations.The Financial accelerator is the key amplification mechanism, because banks can confirm repayment ability of enterprises and default risk according to their net asset size when there is asymmetric information. The external financing premium and the net asset size of enterprises is negatively correlated. Which the external financing premium equals difference of external financing and internal financing costs.when the economy gets good shocks, such as the positive technology shocks, the positive monetary and fiscal shocks, asset price increase, so the net assets of businesses increase, reduce the external financing premium, corporate loans increased. When the economy is subject to negative shocks, such as positive interest rates shocks declining asset prices, decline in the net assets of enterprises, increase the external financing premium, corporate loans declined. Therefore, as the economy are responsed to various shocks, the net assets of business is variable, and credit volatility emerged.Based on the above analysis, we can give some policy implications:First, the implementation in fiscal policy and monetary policy should take into account the impact of technology shocks on the economy. Technology shocks increase output in inverted hump-shape. This implies that the recession phase the authorities should adopt the active fiscal policy and monetary policy, the economy has sustained high growth. If the output is inverted hump-shaped high-point of economic overheating, you need to advance with the tightening of fiscal policy and monetary policy, to avoid more economic fluctuation.
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