The Impact Of Land Finance And Regulation Policies On Real Estate Prices

Housing prices are closely related to people’s lives and economic development,and are closely watched by residents,companies,scholars and policy makers.Land is an important part of the real estate industry.With the advancement of my country’s tax system reform,land market reform,and real estate reform,the paid use of land and real estate-related taxes and fees have brought high revenues to local governments and become fiscal An important part of income.The revenue and expenditure relationship formed around land is called "land finance".In the context of rapid economic development and accelerated urbanization,land finance and government regulation and control policies have jointly affected housing prices.Based on the national macroeconomic data from 2005 to 2019,this article uses the asset price analysis function of the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model(DSGE)to make certain expansions and innovations in the model setting,and meticulously portray and analyze real estate prices and other The response path of macro variables under shocks is to evaluate the impact of land finance and control policies on real estate prices.The results of the model variance decomposition clarified the proportion of each main factor’s influence on real estate prices,and further counterfactual simulations examined the influence of the existence of land finance on real estate prices.The first part of this article is the research background,research methods,possible innovations and existing shortcomings;the second part is the summary and review of the literature;the third part is Construct a model.The DSGE model includes four departments including representative households,manufacturers,real estate departments,and the government;the fourth part is parameter calibration,Bayesian estimation,and the analysis of model fit;the fifth part is VAR model testing and The impact of land finance and control policies is analyzed and researched;the sixth part is to draw corresponding conclusions and put forward corresponding suggestions.The study found that high land prices are an important cause of high housing prices.Land price shocks can explain 30.57%of housing price fluctuations.Counterfactual analysis shows that the existence of land finance magnifies the impact of external shocks on housing prices.Control policies are the main factors affecting house prices.Housing preference shocks and monetary policy shocks can explain 40.18%of house price fluctuations.For enterprises and residents,it is necessary to realize that a large part of the high housing prices are caused by high land prices.Land finance and control policies are the main reasons for the fluctuation of housing prices.For real estate demanders,it is necessary to clarify that the consistent positioning of the regulatory policy is to live without speculation,and to consider rental housing.The policy of stabilizing land transaction prices has a certain positive effect on preventing excessive housing prices.Cities in hotspots in particular should be alert to the risks of excessively rapid land prices and housing prices.For cities with high housing prices,it is possible to reasonably increase the land supply and optimize the land use structure,thereby promoting the return of real estate prices to a reasonable range.