| The manufacturing industry is the pillar of the national economy and the foundation on which a country develops,entrepreneurship thrives and national strength builds.To develop an internationally competitive manufacturing industry at the higher end of the global value chain(GVC)is the only way for China to enhance its comprehensive national strength,protect national security and turn itself into a strong country.After many years of arduous efforts,especially the rapid development since the 18th CPC National Congress,China has established a clear advantage in manufacturing in both scale and system,with accelerated innovation and enhanced competitiveness.That said,the development of China’s manufacturing industry is not balanced and adequate.On the whole,it is still at the middle and low end of the GVC,confronted with deep-seated structural challenges,for example,dependence on foreign countries for key technologies,weak industrial foundation,and rising factor costs.At the same time,the world is undergoing major changes unseen in a century.Worldwide,constraints in energy,resources and industrial chains have become more acute.Countries are turning inwards.The GVC is being restructured at a fast pace with a shift of focus from efficiency to both efficiency and security,and is becoming more diversified and regionalized with shorter chains.Amid the global competition for resources,the GVC restructuring,and the reshoring of manufacturing pursued by developed countries,China faces great challenges in developing the manufacturing industry.How to plan international manufacturing capacity cooperation,maintain the competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry,and move up the GVC has a direct bearing on China’s national security and core development interests.In view of the transformation and upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry,this dissertation focuses on the general trends and patterns and characteristics of international manufacturing capacity cooperation based on the GVC theory,in order to provide policy recommendations on deeply embedding China’s manufacturing industry in and moving it up the GVC.The research starts with a literature review on the GVC and international manufacturing capacity cooperation as well as a systematic analysis of relevant theories on the GVC and the effect theory on trade in finished goods and intermediate goods,and proposes an innovative "tooth chain" theory for global manufacturing capacity cooperation.Secondly,the dissertation adopts new attributes for indicators in the global division of labor based on technology forms and conducts empirical research.It builds a dataset of GVC indicators spanning 20 years and covering 62 major countries(regions)based on WIOD 2016 and ADB MRIO 2021.From a chain’s perspective,analysis is made of how various countries’ manufacturing is embedded in the GVC.Empirical research is conducted into the impact of GVC embedding on the development of the manufacturing industry.From the perspective of"tooth",this dissertation studies the influence mechanism of international manufacturing capacity cooperation on GVC embedding,and makes an empirical analysis of the influencing factors from four dimensions:forward participation,backward participation,value chain length and manufacturing competitiveness.Thirdly,this dissertation compares the US,Japan,and Germany in international manufacturing capacity cooperation and reviews and draws lessons from the history of China’s international manufacturing capacity cooperation.Finally,this dissertation puts forth the policy framework for supporting international manufacturing capacity cooperation and policy recommendations to promote international manufacturing capacity cooperation amidst the GVC restructuring.The results of the study on the impact of GVC embedding on the development of manufacturing industry show that developing countries have a significantly higher degree of backward participation than forward participation in the GVC,which puts them in the middle and low end of the GVC.In comparison,developed countries have a significantly lower degree of backward participation than forward participation,placing them at the higher end of the GVC.GVC participation has a positive impact on the growth of value added in manufacturing(passing the significance test at 1%),and the participation in complex GVC has a greater and more significant impact on value added in manufacturing than that in simple GVC embedding.As for differences among countries,the impact of GVC participation on value added in manufacturing is more significant in high-income countries.The research results of the influencing factors of GVC embedding show that the investment factors of international manufacturing capacity cooperation have a significant impact on GVC participation.Outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)has a significant positive impact on forward GVC participation,which is significant under the 1%level,and the impact is significant for high-tech manufacturing and highincome countries’ forward participation.Foreign direct investment(FDI)has a significant positive impact on backward GVC participation,which is significant under the 1%level,and the impact is significant for low-tech manufacturing and low-and middle-income countries’ backward participation.After the 2008 financial crisis,both OFDI and FDI have a significant impact on the GVC length,in which the impact of OFDI is positive and that of FDI is negative and the impact on the GVC length of lowtech manufacturing and high-income countries is significant.OFDI has a significant positive impact on the NRCA of the GVC,and FDI has a significant negative impact on the NRCA,especially for high-tech manufacturing and high-income countries.In addition,the size of market,quality of systems and institutions,R&D investment,quantity of labor,trade openness,share of value added of higher-end manufacturing and monetary policy are important factors at the national level that affect the participation and competitiveness of the manufacturing GVC.Based on the above research and according to the "tooth chain" framework,this dissertation constructs the policy framework for international manufacturing capacity cooperation.The policies for supporting the participation of the manufacturing industry in GVC are classified into two categories:policies in "tooth direction" to meet the most basic conditions of GVC and to support GVC participation,and policies in "chain direction" to promote the upgrading of GVC.In view of China’s embedding in the GVC and international manufacturing capacity cooperation,this paper puts forward the following main policy measures from both "chain" and "tooth" perspectives:The first is,from the "tooth" perspective,to enhance the ability of the manufacturing industry to be embedded in the GVC,leverage the role of government and market in allocating resources,stimulate the vitality of companies,strengthen the research and development of the manufacturing industry,and upgrade the foundation of the manufacturing industry.Digitization,intelligence and traditional manufacturing are combined to realize the historical transformation of China’s manufacturing curve towards "inverted U" shape,and to realize the transformation from low-end processing to high-end manufacturing.The second is to adjust and optimize the layout of the GVC from the perspective of "chain" extension,proactively respond to the impact of the domestic,regional and global "triple structure",shape the GVC,and increase the overall planning of international and domestic,industrial layout,efficiency and security,so as to stay at the forefront in the new round of global development. |
