| In recent years,agricultural high quality development has become the focus of research and policy making,and the promotion of agricultural Total Factor Productivity(TFP)has been generally accepted as its core connotation.It is true that to improve agriculture TFP to tap the endogenous potential of agricultural high-quality development is very important,but when urbanization has evolved to the middle and late historical node in China,if we ignore the important variable of new urbanization,the potential of agricultural high-quality development will soon be suppressed,and the policy effect of rural revitalization will be greatly reduced.The existing literature mainly studies urbanization from perspective of "farmers"(human perspective)or "rural"(regional perspective),and few literature analyzes the relationship between agricultural development(industrial perspective)and urbanization.It is of great theoretical and practical significance to systematically study the spatiotemporal evolution laws and interactions between agricultural high-quality development and new urbanization for promoting rural revitalization strategy implement well and urban and rural areas coordinated development well.This paper analyzing from concepts and basic theories of agricultural high-quality development and new urbanization,reviews the current literatures on agricultural high-quality development and new urbanization,and the interactive relations between them.On the basis of introducing the history and institutional evolution of agricultural and urbanization developing in China,it analysis the realistic matching between them in system,trend,space etc.It analyzes the interaction mechanism between agricultural high-quality development and new urbanization from dimensions of industries,spaces and factors,and puts forward the theoretical hypothesis of their interaction in different periods.On the basis of building and measuring the index system of agricultural high-quality development and new urbanization in China,it analyzes the evolution trends and characteristics of them,and divides the course into three stages for their interaction by coupling analysis.Then it takes empirical test on interactive effects between them by Panel Vector Auto Regression model(PVAR),and examines the possible spatial spillover effects of the interaction.At last,based on the results,it puts forward some policy suggestions to promote agricultural high-quality development and new urbanization in China,as to build solid industrial support,to strengthen space coordination,to accelerate element flows,and to optimize institutional design.The main content and innovations of this paper are as follows:Firstly,it has constructed an index system of agricultural high-quality development and urbanization in China,which has covered agricultural input indicators,agricultural consensual output indicators and non-consensual output indicators,based on a comprehensive analysis of institutional developing process and status quo of agricultural development in China.It has calculated the indexes of agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity(GTFP),Technological Change(TC),Efficiency Change(EC)of China and its 30 provinces from 1979 to 2018 by SBM-ML method.Then it has analyzed the developing trends and situations from national,province and regional levels,and analyzed the differences among regions and the reasons by Theil index method.For more deeply analysis of agricultural high-quality development it has used Kernel density estimation method.Then it has found that agricultural GTFP of China has increased overall,and TC is the core driving force.The indexes of GTFP and EC have showed a sequential reduction from the east,west to the middle,but the TC index showed a decline from the west,east to the middle.Within-group differences are main for the differences among regions in high-quality agricultural development in China.There is a certain heterogeneity in evolution of agricultural GTFP and the subdivision indexes among the stages 1979-1995,1996-2004,and 2005-2018.Compared with the current researches,this paper has regarded agricultural production efficiency and green development as the core connotation of agricultural high-quality development,and taken agricultural carbon emission and other indicators as non-satisfactory output to construct the green agricultural TFP model,so as to measure agricultural high-quality development in China more scientifically and more reasonably.Then it has systematically analyzed the period trends,regional differences and spatial characteristics of agricultural high-quality development by methods of Theil index and Kernel density estimation,so as to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution laws of agricultural high-quality development more deeply.Secondly,based on investigating deeply on process,model and status quo of urbanization in China,this paper has conducted an urbanization index system of China,which included economic and social development,population transfer,infrastructure,public services and ecological environment indexes.It has measured new urbanization level by combining the methods of entropy test and expert scoring from 1979-2018 in China,and its 30 provinces has also been measured.Then it has analyed the dynamic evolution trends and spatial gaps of new urbanization in China by methods of Theil index and Kernel density estimation.The results have shown that the evolution of the new urbanization in China have a certain heterogeneity,as it respectively developed slowly,rapidly and steadily in 1978-1995,1996-2014 and 2015-2018.The level of urbanization in the east has always been higher than that in the middle and the west,but the speed of urbanization in the middle and the west is faster than that in the east,and the gap between the east and the west has been narrowing.The within-group differences are main for the gaps among the regions of new urbanization in China.Compared with the current researches,this paper has brought the indexes of economic and social development,population transfer,infrastructure,public services and ecological environment into the urbanization index system,so as to descript new urbanization in China more comprehensively and more truly.And it has objectively analyzed the dynamic evolution trends and regional development situations of new urbanization in China by methods of Theil index and Kernel density estimation to comprehensively reveal the spatiotemporal evolution laws of new urbanization,as is a beneficial supplement to the new urbanization analysis in China.Thirdly,this paper has systematically analyzed the interactive relations between agricultural high-quality development and new urbanization from dimensions of industry,space and elements,then it has put forward the theoretical hypothesis.According to the phased adjustment of urban-rural development strategy in China and current researches,it has divided the sample interval into the separate stage(1979-1994),the gradual integrating stage(1995-2003)and the deeply integrated stage(2004-2018)of urban-rural development,in which the interactions of agricultural high-quality development and new urbanization are respectively tested by Panel Vector Auto Regressive model(PVAR).It has found that in urban-rural separate stage 1979-1994,the new urbanization hasn’t promoted agricultural high-quality development effectively,and agricultural high-quality development also hasn’t promoted new urbanization effectively too.In urban-rural development gradual integrating stage 1995-2003,new urbanization has driven agricultural high-quality development effectively,but the positive effect of agricultural high-quality development driving new urbanization is not obvious.In urban-rural development deedly integrated stage of 2004-2018,new urbanization has driven agricultural high-quality development effectively,and agricultural high-quality development has promoted new urbanization effectively in turn,a "strong coupling" interactive pattern between agricultural high-quality development and new urbanization has begun to shape.Compared with the current researches,this paper has systematically discusses the interactive mechanism between agricultural high-quality development and new urbanization from dimensions of industry,space and elements,and it putting forward the phased theoretical hypothesis innovatively,which have been verified based on the historical experience data of China.Thus the integrated theory of urban-rural development will be expanded and enriched.It also has provided some theoretical guidance for the sustainable,healthy and stable agricultural high-quality development and new urbanization in China.Fourthly,the paper has researched the spatial spillover effects of the interaction between agricultural high-quality development and new urbanization in China.The Moran’s I method has been used to test the spatial autocorrelation,which indicates that there is a significant positive spatial autocorrelation between agricultural high-quality development and new urbanization in China.The empirical study by the mthods of SDM model and DSDM model has indicated that in the urban-rural splitting period,agricultural high-quality development has positive spillover effect on the neighborhood new urbanization,but new urbanization doesn’t have spatial spillover effect on agricultural high-quality development.In the urban-rural gradual integrating stage,neither agricultural high-quality development nor new urbanization don’t have produced spatial spillover effects on neighboring areas.In the stage of urban-rural deeply integration,agricultural high-quality development has a positive spatial spillover effects on new urbanization,but new urbanization doesn’t have significant spatial spillover effects on agricultural high-quality development.Therefore,the spatial spillover effects between agricultural high-quality development and new urbanization are mainly manifested as one-way: agricultural high-quality development not only has positive impacts on new urbanization at local area,but also at neighborhoods.However,new urbanization only has impacts on agricultual high-quality development at local area,but no spatial spillover effects to the neighborhoods.These conclusions may enrich and develop the related theories of development economics such as urban-rural binary. |
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