Study On The Evaluation Of Farmers’ Stable Poverty Alleviation And The Mechanism Of Preventing Poverty Return In The Three Gorges Reservoir Area(Chongqing Section)

In 2020,the victory in the battle against poverty as scheduled and the completion of a well-off society in all respects indicate that our party has taken a solid step on the road of uniting and leading the people to achieve common prosperity.China’s social and economic development has also entered the "consolidation and expansion of the achievements in poverty alleviation." Effectively link up with rural revitalization in a new historical period.As a major strategy to achieve the "two centenary" goals,the overall victory of poverty alleviation has helped the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy to eliminate the chronic poverty ailments that have existed in the rural areas for a long time and lay the foundation for development.As a key link in the link between poverty alleviation and rural revitalization,it is not enough to achieve poverty alleviation,and more importantly,to achieve stable poverty alleviation.Only stable poverty alleviation can ensure that the results of poverty alleviation are consolidated and expanded,and can completely compensate for the continued development of rural revitalization.Weaknesses,create a good development environment,and promote the effective connection of the two strategies of poverty alleviation and rural revitalization.Stable poverty alleviation is not only the essential requirement and ultimate goal of targeted poverty alleviation,but also the logical starting point and important foundation of the rural revitalization strategy.It is also one of the important indicators to test and consolidate the effectiveness of poverty alleviation.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to carry out research on issues related to stabilizing poverty alleviation for the peasant households who have been established and registered for poverty alleviation,both on the theoretical level and on the practical level.Based on dynamic poverty theory,practical ability theory,and the theory of sustainable livelihoods classical theory as the foundation,on the basis of improved the SLA model,combined with the relatively mature exit poverty index system both at home and abroad as well as the three gorges reservoir area(chongqing section)of state-level counties out of poverty engines work,build the three gorges reservoir area(chongqing section)evaluation index system of stability of farmers out of poverty.Based on 1118micro-survey questionnaires from 9 state-level poverty-stricken counties,25 towns and 45 administrative villages in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area(Chongqing section),the stable poverty alleviation index of peasant households was calculated and the stable poverty alleviation grade was divided,and the potential risk and types of peasant households returning to poverty were identified.On this basis,the mediation effect model is used to empirically test the influence mechanism and realization mechanism of preventing farmers from returning to poverty under the participation of multiple subjects from the perspectives of government,social organizations and individual farmers.The following conclusions are obtained:(1)The stable poverty alleviation of farmers in the Three Gorges Reservoir area is generally stable.The calculation results of the stable poverty alleviation index of farmers in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area show that the stable poverty alleviation index of farmers ranges from 0.2759 to 0.9326,with an average value of 0.6366,which is generally stable,showing the olive characteristics of "small at both ends and large in the middle".In terms of county differences in stable poverty alleviation,Wulong district and Wanzhou District have the highest stable poverty alleviation index,while Wuxi County(located in qinba Mountain area)and Shizhu County(located in Wuling Mountain area)in contiguous poverty overlapping area have relatively low stability of poverty alleviation.(2)The stable poverty alleviation index of peasant households with different characteristics shows obvious differences.From the number of level of education and skills,the higher the level of education and skills,the more number of farmers,the higher the stability of poverty,in a way that is because education can improve educatees to accept the new skills,the ability of new things,new ideas,for its reserves in each link of the process of anti-poverty high quality human capital,and the more skills,The more extensive the means of making a living are,the more beneficial it is for farmers to broaden income channels and achieve stable poverty alleviation.In poverty causes ways,because of poverty(0.6537)and poverty due to illness(0.6391)of the farmers out of poverty after effectively solve the two leading causes of poverty index is the highest,that by improving the farmers’ human capital quality to increase farmers "Zao Xie Shi" self-development ability accurate poverty alleviation policy played an important role in promoting stability of farmers out of poverty.However,the "spiritual poverty" farmers who lack the will and motivation to lift themselves out of poverty have relatively low stability(0.5240);From the perspective of the main way of poverty alleviation,the farmers who take skill training as the main way of poverty alleviation have the highest stability after poverty alleviation(0.6500),followed by the farmers who mainly expand income channels(0.6389),reduce family burden(0.6381),and achieve industrial development(0.6318).However,whether farmers are from poor villages has no significant influence on the stability of poverty alleviation.(3)The potential risk of returning to poverty mainly focuses on human capital and risk perception and adaptation.Obstacle degree model is used to identify the main obstacle factors affecting the stable poverty alleviation of farmers in the Three Gorges Reservoir area: Family member’s health status(H2),a(H1)workforce,effective means to adapt to the risk(R2),perceived risk(R1),and the ability of farm household cultivated land quantity(N2),which mainly comes from the following five aspects: human capital dimensions,risk perception and adaptation dimension,precision in precise poverty alleviation poverty alleviation policy support,The material life and economic level of the poverty-stricken farmers in the Three Gorges Reservoir area have been significantly improved,and the material dimension no longer plays a dominant role in many factors affecting the stable poverty alleviation of farmers.On the contrary,human capital,risk perception and adaptation,which represent the sustainable development of peasant households,have gradually become the key factors and focus of preventing the risk of peasant households returning to poverty.In the three Gorges Reservoir area,the number of households in the three risk mode is the largest,accounting for 54.44%,followed by the four risk mode(16.67%),five risk mode(15.67%),double risk mode(13.33%),and the number of households in the single risk mode is 0.This indicates that the stability of poverty alleviation of farmers in the Three Gorges Reservoir area is jointly affected by multiple potential poverty risk to varying degrees.(4)Both the government’s multiple and precise assistance policies and farmer cooperatives can significantly improve the stability of poverty alleviation,and the farmer cooperatives have a greater direct impact;Among the individual policies,industrial assistance policy has the greatest influence on the stable poverty alleviation of farmers.The empirical results show that the government’s multiple and precise assistance policies have a positive impact on the stable poverty alleviation of farmers at the significance level of 1%,with an impact coefficient of 0.0360,indicating that the more assistance policies farmers enjoy,the more favorable it is for them to achieve stable poverty alleviation.At the significance level of 1%,farmers’ cooperatives have a positive impact on stable poverty alleviation of farmers,with an impact coefficient of 0.0863,indicating that joining farmers’ cooperatives has a good promotion effect on stable poverty alleviation of farmers,and the role of farmers’ cooperatives in directly promoting stable poverty alleviation of farmers is more obvious than that of multiple targeted poverty alleviation policies.This may be because farmer cooperatives are rooted in the rural market environment and institutional environment,and have natural close contact with the majority of farmers,so they can best understand and meet the special production demands of farmers.From the point of support of each individual policy effect,industry support,education support,microfinance support,health support,low out on the stability of farmers out of poverty have a significant role in promoting,and industry support to achieve the effect of the stability of farmers out of poverty,the most obvious next to microfinance support,health support,low out and education support.(5)Self-development ability plays a significant role in promoting stable poverty alleviation of farmers.Each unit increase in farmers’ self-development ability will improve the stability of farmers’ poverty alleviation at the significance level of 1%.Self-development ability is the endogenous driving force for preventing farmers from returning to poverty and achieving stable poverty alleviation.It is also the internal basis for transforming farmers from "want me to get rid of poverty" to "want me to get rid of poverty".Farmers with strong self-development ability will perform better in learning technology and acquiring information,and are more likely to consolidate the control variables of poverty alleviation results.The age factor of individual characteristics has an obvious inhibiting effect on stable poverty alleviation of peasant households.The older the peasant households are,the lower the stability of poverty alleviation is.The time of help and the burden of support in family characteristics also have a significant restraining effect on the stable poverty alleviation of farmers,indicating that the longer the family needs external help and the heavier the burden of support in the family,the lower the probability of stable poverty alleviation.(6)Cultivating the self-development ability of farmers is an important micro-mechanism for the government and social organizations to promote farmers to achieve stable poverty alleviation.Self-development ability has a significant intermediary effect in the government and social organizations in promoting farmers to achieve stable poverty alleviation,and is an important channel for multiple subjects to promote farmers to achieve stable poverty alleviation.The relationship between the government’s multiple and precise assistance policies,farmer cooperatives,self-development capabilities,and stable poverty alleviation of farmers was sorted out,and the multiple subjects and farmers’ stable alleviation of poverty were included in the same analysis framework to construct a "government,social organization-self-development" Ability-the intermediary effect model of farmers stabilizing poverty alleviation.The empirical results show that self-development ability has an intermediary effect in the government’s diverse and precise assistance policies affecting farmers’ stable poverty alleviation;self-development ability also has an intermediary effect in farmer cooperatives’ influence on farmers’ stable poverty alleviation.Judging from the empirical results of each individual assistance policy,self-development ability has a significant mediating effect in the impact of industrial assistance policies and education assistance policies on farmers’ stable poverty alleviation.By improving basic public health service facilities in poor areas,health assistance improves the medical service capacity and security level in poor areas,and alleviates the problem of “difficult and expensive medical treatment” of farmers.At the same time,it also provides medical assistance and critical illness insurance.Such measures have reduced the risk of farmers’ “poverty due to illness” and “returning to poverty” and increased the probability of farmers’ stable poverty alleviation,indicating that health assistance has a direct and significant positive impact on farmers’ stable poverty alleviation.Health assistance can suppress the risk of returning to poverty caused by the physical aspects of farmers(disease,disability)through specific measures,but it is difficult to solve the risk of returning to poverty in the field of awareness of farmers,and it has no significant impact on the self-development ability of farmers.Therefore,the impact of health assistance policies,microfinance policies,and low-income policies on farmers’ stable poverty alleviation is mainly manifested as a direct impact.