Study On The Impact Of Rural Labor Mobility On Urban Employment

In China’s accelerating urbanization process,The rural surplus labor flows to the urban employment,settling down to become the trend.Rural migration will also be an important part of the urban workforce.In contrast,China’s economy is entering a new normal period of economic growth.it’s a major issue,that the ability of towns to fully absorb the new rural surplus labor force,It affect social stability 、 national economy and people’s livelihood.Based on the theoretical framework of general equilibrium supply and demand of labor market,this paper regards the rural floating labor force as the increase of urban labor market supply.Theoretically,under the premise of constant aggregate demand,the increase of labor supply is bound to affect the wages and employment of urban labor force.This also becomes the reason that urban labor force repels rural floating labor force.But the actual phenomenon deviates from the theoretical conclusion.In order to explore the real level of this influence degree,this paper conducts an empirical test through theoretical model construction and data collection.Flow of rural labor force to the labor market in cities and towns of empirical research,scholars have conditioned by continuous time series data is difficult to obtain,only in the cross section data and two phase comparison research,this article from the national bureau of statistics in monitoring report with the flow of migrant workers,try to start from 2008 to 2015 since 8 years of monitoring data,using time series data for the first time to do regression testing,validation provides a new supplement for theory study.The results show that floating labor has no significant effect on urban unemployment rate.Then,it becomes an important task to solve the employment problem of a large number of rural migrant labor force flowing into cities and towns.In the past,most of the solutions to the problem of urban employment in China focused on the policy level of the labor market.This paper,from the perspective of increasing the total demand for urban labor,looked for the fundamental way to solve the problem of urban employment of rural migrant labor,which is an important part of the total urban labor market.The basic idea of solving the problem of urban employment is to study the increase of total labor demand brought by economic growth.In the study of the employment effect of economic growth,this paper introduces a new concept "economic employment bearing rate" and employment elasticity.Although okun’s law and employment elasticity,which are often used by economists,are still used,rolling regression method is first used in the verification of employment elasticity,which provides a new attempt for scholars to study the employment effect of economic growth.The research of this article concludes:First,the rural labor movement entered a new period.The general characteristics of migrant workers employment change present a more acceptable because of the floating population is relatively hard work,can accept more low wages,social security burden lighter,competition in the market psychology to bear ability is larger,compared with the city at the same level of labor force,their employment competitiveness is stronger;The employment distribution of rural migrant workers is relatively stable,but the internal employment structure of the group is different.The supply and demand of the labor market accelerated,and the wages of migrant workers continued to rise rapidly.The convergence of the wages of migrant workers is becoming more and more obvious.Migrant workers employment structure tended to present a polarization of employment,The trend of "job upgrading" is clear,but there are regional variations.Second,there are new trends in the urban labor market.The current China’s urban labor market is still a binary segmentation,The characteristics of the urban labor market presents a "double down" between supply and demand in labor market was,dominant and recessive unemployment unemployment and employment quality is not high,the characteristic of structural unemployment is obvious.The urban Labor market is shrinking because of an ageing population,although migrant workers are growing every year,but the growth is slowing.The economy is slowing down and entering the "new normal",the employment situation is still grim,but there is still no significant increase in the urban unemployment rate.Third,the rural labor movement has little effect on the urban labor market.The rural migrant labor market is highly complementary to the urban labor market,and a small substitute.Due to the binary segmentation characteristics of China’s urban labor market,wage and employment of urban labor market,almost no effect on the city level of labor market,in particular,the unemployment rate has no significant effect on the urban labor market.Fourth,the employment elasticity of economic growth is flat,between the second and third industry gradually close,employment elasticity of the tertiary industry is significantly higher than the second industry employment elasticity.From the national economic and employment carrying rate trend chart,you can see that both total economic loading rate of employment,or economic employment carrying rate of three industry,in 1991-2013,are falling.The overall economic employment rate of the country is higher than that of the secondary and tertiary industries.The economic employment rate of the tertiary industry is higher than that of the second industry.Econometric regression results show that the employment elasticity of the tertiary industry is higher than that of the second industry employment elasticity,fully explain in the next 3 to 5 years of economic situation,the city of the third industry will be absorb into the labor force,especially in the main channel,the flow of rural labor force in the future urban employment work center of gravity will focus on the cultivation of the tertiary industry and mining,especially the labor-intensive of the third industry will become the main national urban employment policies center.