Income Uncertainty And Chinese Family Fertility Decision

The results of the seventh census show that China is facing a "great change not seen in a century" when it has entered the era of zero or even negative population growth,and there is an imbalance in gender structure and fertility delay.Fertility decision-making is not only a major event for families,but also an important factor affecting national and regional development.On the one hand,affected by multiple factors such as the impact of the COVID-19,the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,and high inflation in major developed countries,the recovery and growth of the world economy have been severely frustrated,global and systematic economic and financial risks have continued to accumulate,and future uncertainties have increased;On the other hand,China is facing the trend of declining fertility and increasing aging.China has continuously adjusted its population policy since 2013,but the results of the seventh census show that population development obviously does not meet the original intention of the population policy.In order to explore the influencing factors restricting the development of population quantity,gender structure and fertility delay,from macro and micro perspective,based on theory and practice,this paper takes the risk of income uncertainty as the breakthrough point,and studies the impact of income uncertainty risk on family fertility decision-making from three aspects: family fertility number decision-making,gender structure preference,and fertility time decision-making.In terms of theoretical research,first of all,we sorted out the relevant literature on the measurement of income uncertainty,the socio-economic impact of income uncertainty,and the consequences and influencing factors of fertility decision-making,summarized the referential points and limitations of existing research results,obtained the research theme of this doctoral dissertation,and proposed the innovation and marginal contribution of this doctoral dissertation.Secondly,this paper measures family fertility decision-making from three dimensions of fertility quantity decision-making,gender preference and fertility time decision-making,and uses Becker’s child demand theory,Leibenstein’s cost utility theory,and Caldwell’s intergenerational wealth flow theory to theoretically analyze the impact and mechanism of income uncertainty on family fertility decision-making.In the aspect of empirical research,temporary income fluctuation is used as the proxy variable of income uncertainty to test its impact on the number of family births,gender preference and decision-making of childbearing time.In order to avoid endogenous errors,the instrumental variable method and lagged variable regression method are adopted respectively,and the robustness test is conducted by replacing explanatory variables,replacing explained variables,deleting some invalid samples,and replacing estimation methods.The main results of this paper are as follows:Based on CGSS 2015 data,this study first tests the relationship between income uncertainty and family fertility decision-making.The results show that income uncertainty significantly inhibits the willingness to have more children;Income uncertainty has a greater impact on urban residents’ willingness to have more children than rural residents;Compared with the high-income class,low-income families are more vulnerable,and income uncertainty significantly inhibits their willingness to have more children;Compared with families with multiple suites,income uncertainty only has a more obvious inhibitory effect on the willingness to have more children in families with no room and one room;Income uncertainty significantly reduced women’s willingness to have more children,but did not reduce men’s willingness to have more children.Secondly,the study further analyzes the impact of income uncertainty on family gender preference decision-making.The main conclusions are as follows:Income uncertainty significantly reduces the number of boys expected by families,but does not significantly reduce the number of girls expected;Income uncertainty significantly inhibits the possibility of families wanting only boys,but increased the expectation of only girls;Income uncertainty only significantly inhibits the boy preference of urban,low-income residents and women,but has no significant effect on the boy preference of rural residents,high-income groups and men;Due to the pension substitution effect of social security,income uncertainty partially reduces boys’ preference by promoting pension insurance participation.Finally,through CLDS 2016 data,income uncertainty is measured by temporary income fluctuations,and the impact of income uncertainty on Chinese women’s childbearing time is tested.The main empirical conclusions are as follows: Income uncertainty significantly delays women’s childbearing age.The impact of income uncertainty on women’s childbirth delay is heterogeneous:Income uncertainty only significantly delays the childbearing time of women with high school and below education level,and has no significant impact on women with high school and above education level.The main factor affecting the childbearing delay of women with high education level is education;Income uncertainty significantly delays the childbearing time of urban and rural women,but has a greater impact on rural women;Income uncertainty significantly affects the birth delay of low-income families.The intermediary effect results show that income uncertainty delays women’s childbearing age by delaying marriage and promoting population mobility.By sorting out the results of empirical analysis,the article finally puts forward suggestions on promoting economic growth,increasing employment positions to reduce income uncertainty,increasing transfer payments to reduce the impact of income uncertainty,improving the supporting reform of the housing market,providing corresponding living conditions for families with many children,and promoting families to make positive population birth decisions through cultural publicity and other means.In addition,we should also strengthen employment security for women,safeguard women’s family rights,provide perfect childcare services,and reduce the opportunity cost of women’s childbearing.