Research On The Formation Mechanism,communication Process And Guidance Of Network Public Opinion Group Polarization In Major Emergencies

A variety of information generated by the occurrence of major emergencies is spread around the world through social networks.The source of such news is unknown,and it is difficult to tell whether it is true or false.Especially around major emergencies,it is more likely to arouse crowds of onlookers,which may lead to the outbreak of network public opinion with wide influence and high harm degree.If the law of its development cannot be grasped,improper disposal,the least of which will cause dissatisfaction,stimulate common indignation,and lead to malignant events;In particular,it has triggered large demonstrations and demonstrations,causing social unrest,unbalanced order,impeding economic development and even endangering national security.Therefore,it is the core focus of scholars in many fields to study the formation,evolution and communication rules of online public opinions on major emergencies,so as to develop timely and effective control strategies.This article emphatically from major events formation mechanism,the evolutionary mechanism of network public opinion,trend prediction and control four aspects were studied,using the related theory,building the analysis model,discussed its occurrence,evolution and propagation law,management and control was put forward policy Suggestions,network public opinion to a major incident management to provide theoretical support and practical guidance.This study mainly focuses on the following aspects:First,Using the group polarization theory,this paper explores the formation mechanism of group polarization of network public opinion in major emergencies.Based on the perspective of group polarization theory,this paper constructs the factor model affecting group behavior intention,introduces the regulatory effect of perceived anonymity,and uses structural equation model to verify and analyze the collected 339 sample data.The results show that group identity and social comparison frequency have a significant positive impact on attitude polarization and behavior intention.Perceived anonymity enhances the positive impact of group identity on attitude polarization and behavior intention.Finally,based on the research conclusions of this paper,this paper puts forward targeted policy suggestions for the governance of network public opinion in major emergencies.Secondly,using the uncertainty theory,this paper constructs the transmission equation of network public opinion of major emergencies,and discusses its transmission mechanism.Due to the small amount of data and lack of sample size,it is difficult to provide probabilistic prediction for online public opinion of major emergencies.This paper uses the uncertainty theory of Professor Liu Baoding from Tsinghua University to explore the law of online public opinion communication in major emergencies.In the early stage of the formation of network public opinion,both the publisher of public opinion information and the content of public opinion information are difficult to determine.According to these two uncertain factors,the inference rules of network public opinion communication and the uncertain inference system of network public opinion communication are established.Second,according to the positive and negative to the classification of network public opinion is put forward on the time axis transmission of network public opinion warming periods,exploding,positive public opinion transmission second outbreak period,positive public opinion spread heat preservation period,the negative public opinion rapid cooling phase and positive public opinion slow cooling stage,the construction of the corresponding uncertainty partial differential network public opinion propagation equation,and analyzes the influence factors of different periods,and the network public opinion control strategy is given.Finally,the validity of the propagation equation is verified by an example analysis.Thirdly,using the fractal theory,the paper constructs the prediction model of the communication situation of network public opinion of major emergencies.In this paper,a major emergency such as the New World epidemic was taken as an example.Firstly,the influential factors in its transmission process were analyzed,and the transmission process was divided into five stages.According to the characteristics of the transmission situation in different stages,it was divided into multiple transmission types.Then,the fractal characteristics of the network public opinion communication state are analyzed.First,the statistical moment function method is used to judge the uniform fractal process in the transmission process,and then the R/S analysis method is used to solve the fractal dimension to prove that the network public opinion communication state has the fractal characteristics.The correlation dimension method is also used to judge the chaos of its propagation process.Finally,a prediction model of the communication situation of network public opinion is constructed.Fourthly,using the theory of heat conduction,the paper establishes the communication control model of network public opinion of major emergencies.In this paper,the public opinion spread of analogy between individual and individual into a heat transfer process,in the process of the propagation is analyzed,and the public opinion information related to "temperature" individual interest,spreading tendency degrees,public opinion information transmission coefficient and the breadth of the factors that affect the spread of public opinion,the construction of the major events network public opinion transmission control model.Finally,it puts forward the public opinion guidance strategy and crisis management principles and methods from the governance level.The main innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)Based on the group polarization theory,this paper explores the formation mechanism of network public opinion in major emergencies,constructs the factor model affecting group behavior intention,and introduces the regulatory effect of perceived anonymity.The structural equation model is used to verify and analyze the collected sample data.(2)The uncertain partial differential model of network public opinion dissemination of major emergencies is established,and the uncertain communication model is established for network public opinion in different stages.(3)Based on the fractal theory,the communication situation prediction model of network public opinion of major emergencies is built.Using statistical moment function,Hurst index and correlation dimension as the fractal features of network public opinion communication situation,a weighted first-order local one-step prediction model of network public opinion communication situation is established.(4)Based on the theory of heat transfer,the control model of network public opinion dissemination for major emergencies is established.The model is analyzed and studied from four aspects: the influence of individual interest degree on public opinion information,the influence of dissemination tendency degree on public opinion information,the influence of transmission coefficient on public opinion information,and the influence of publicity breadth on public opinion information.