Research On The Influence Of Agricultural Water Price On Irrigation Water And Grain Production In The North China Plain

China is extremely short of water resources.In 2012,China issued the "opinions on the implementation of the strictest Water Resources Management system",defining the total water consumption control system.Agriculture as a major water user,most of the agricultural water is used for agricultural irrigation.China has been trying to use various measures to save water in agricultural irrigation.With the implementation of various agricultural water-saving policies and measures,the actual average water consumption per mu of cultivated land in China is declining,but the total amount of agricultural irrigation water is not expected to decline to the same extent.This situation shows that the water resources saved by the reduction of the average water consumption per mu of cultivated land irrigation are reused in agricultural production,and the total amount of agricultural irrigation water at the regional level has not been reduced.The situation in which such saved natural resources are reused for production in the original field is often referred to as the rebound effect.This will directly affect the control of the total amount of agricultural water consumption.Agricultural water price adjustment is an important policy measure to control the total amount of agricultural water consumption in China.Since 2011,China has begun to actively explore a new mechanism for agricultural water pricing.In 2016,the State Council formally issued the opinions on promoting the Comprehensive Reform of Agricultural Water prices,proposing the establishment of a new mechanism for the formation of agricultural water prices,and the comprehensive reform of agricultural water prices has been speeded up one after another.The goal of raising agricultural water price is to promote farmers to establish water-saving awareness,improve the efficiency of water resources utilization,give full play to the price mechanism to effectively save agricultural irrigation water,and promote the transfer and application of agricultural water resources.However,from the current situation of the actual average water consumption per mu of cultivated land and the total amount of agricultural irrigation water in China,whether the agricultural water price plays an expected role or not and its impact on the rebound effect of agricultural irrigation water need more in-depth analysis.Based on the above content,this paper will focus on the research on the average water consumption per mu of farmland irrigation and the impact of agricultural irrigation water consumption by agricultural water prices,investigate the mechanism of agricultural water prices on the re-investment of agricultural water resources into agricultural production,and explore the corresponding measures to achieve agricultural water resources conservation.solutions,while analysing the possible impact of reduced agricultural irrigation water use on food production.This is of great significance for understanding the pricing mechanism of agricultural water prices and realizing total agricultural water conservation at the regional level.The specific research contents include the following aspects:(1)Changes in agricultural water prices and agricultural irrigation water use in the North China Plain.The research area of this paper is the North China Plain,and the changes in agricultural water prices and other factors in China and the North China Plain are sorted out;(2)The influence of agricultural water prices on the average water consumption per mu of farmland irrigation is analyzed.According to the theory of resource substitution,the theoretical framework is analyzed,and an empirical test is carried out by constructing a mediation effect test model and using relevant farmer survey data;(3)The impact of agricultural water price on the rebound of agricultural irrigation water is analyzed.Focus on analyzing the comprehensive impact of agricultural water price on the total amount of agricultural irrigation water,and investigate whether agricultural water price is one of the reasons why the saved water resources are reused for agricultural production and the mechanism of action;(4)Water rights trading under changes in agricultural water prices Analysis of the impact on agricultural irrigation water consumption.Analyze the impact of farmers’ water rights transactions on agricultural irrigation water consumption when analyzing the increase in agricultural water prices under the premise of metering and charging;(5)Analysis of the impact of agricultural irrigation water saving on grain production.The impact of changes in agricultural irrigation water consumption on production decisions such as grain yield per mu and sown area was analyzed,and the impact on farmers’ agricultural net income after the total amount of agricultural irrigation was saved was investigated.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1,The increase of agricultural water price will promote farmers to apply water-saving irrigation technology and reduce the intensity of irrigation water,thus reducing the average water consumption of farmland irrigation per mu.2,the larger the scale of land management,the stronger the water-saving effect of increasing agricultural water price and reducing the average water consumption of farmland irrigation per mu.3,the increase of agricultural water price does not significantly reduce the total amount of agricultural irrigation water for farmers.Agricultural water price will significantly increase agricultural irrigation water consumption through intermediary paths such as adjusting planting structure,which will offset the water-saving effect of agricultural water price to a great extent.4,In the case of the increase of agricultural water price,the trading of water rights and the supporting implementation of agricultural water price can form a more effective irrigation water-saving mechanism and urge farmers to change from passive water-saving to active water-saving.5,Properly reducing the use of water for agricultural irrigation will not affect the grain output per unit area of land,and the net agricultural income of farmers will not be adversely affected.These conclusions are of great significance for giving full play to the price leverage of agricultural water price and realizing the goal of total water saving in agricultural irrigation.