| With the development and change of economy and people’s needs,many agricultural problems highlighted,such as the drawback of household contract responsibility system.China’s agriculture thus is facing the following threats: firstly,it is the threat of food security.With the economic level and people’s living standards improved,the structure of grain demand has changed and that of per capita is rising.The total food demand is rising in the future because of the increase of total population,so how to meet the future grain demand is a problem that must be solved.Secondly,it is reduction of agricultural population owing to urbanization and industrialization,which induces the phenomenon of rural labor transfering gradually,scarcity of agricultural labor,rural labor aging,declining in the quality of labor and so on.Then the questions that who will cultivates arable land in the future and in which patterns are worth thinking about.Thirdly,it is the drawback of the small-scale farmer’s operation itself.And the most obvious problems are the low income,the weak of economic power and agriculture investment ability of small-scale farmers;And farmers are bad at market forecasting and selling agricultural products immediately;Also,it is difficult to realize the specialized production and have the ability and circumstance to develop the modern agriculture for small-scale operation.Apparently,it is hard to adapt to the national condition and meet the need of rural development for the small-scale household operation,agricultural scale management then is an inevitable choice.The core of scale management is ―moderation‖.Different performance subjects have their own targets for scale management with different metrics of that,which,meanwhile,is easy to under constraint by objective condition.Therefore,the core question is how to determine the ―moderation‖ of scale management.The main subject of this study is appropriate scale of rice planting in Jianghan Plain,focusing on ―change of patterns of rice planting in Jianghan Plain ‖,‖the most appropriate management scale and of rice planting in Jianghan Plain‖,―the path to improve efficiency of rice planting in Jianghan Plain‖,―the future development trend of rice planting in Jianghan Plain‖,which has a certain guiding significance for the future development of Jianghan Plain.At first,this paper presentethe background,purpose and significance of research according to the present situation of development of rural economy and the disadvantage of agricultural production in China.Theoretical basis is then introduced by reviewing the relevant theoretical knowledge at home and abroad.Secondly,macro data were used to calculate the scale of rice growing and Efficiency Comparative Advantage Index,analyzing the advantage of rice production and spatial distribution in Hubei province and Jianghan Plain from a perspective of time and space.Thirdly,in respect of microscopic study,translog production function was used to construct a model of moderate scale management of rice planting in different targets to calculate which scale was the moderate in Jianghan Plain.After that,stochastic frontier production function model was used to compare and study the influencing factor on moderate scale management of rice growing.At last,from perspectives of population、food security、agricultural acreage,system dynamics model was used to different variation trends of average of household moderate scale management on different policies and suggest the future development of that.The main research conclusions are following:(1)The transformation of Rice-planting Pattern and rice distribution under different planting pattern were observable.In whole China,Hubei province’s middle-season rice has certain competitive advantages on planting scale and efficiency,and the comprehensive advantage remains stable.As far as the inside of Hubei province was concerned,planting double-season rice had an advantage about efficiency while single-season rice had that about scale.The pattern of double-season rice planting in the middle and east of Hubei province,for example,changed to single-season rice planting,which induced total planting area declined by almost 500 hectares,especially 40 hectares in Jianghan Plain.Compare to Hubei province,rice planting in Jianghan Plain showed a negative between the scale and efficiency of single-season.And the comprehensive advantage indicated single-season rice planting had a significant advantage in Jianghan Plain after 2001 with the fact that it had already taken the place of double-season rice.The inside and outside comparative advantage made single-season rice planting is the main way of rice planting.(2)The product power of farmer declined and the environment of agricultural production should be improved.The number and quality of agricultural labor force are declining,that mans the part-time migration of rural labor force is remarkable,resultd in the number of agricultural labor force declining and insufficient,and the agricultural production efficiency is reduced;It is not conducive to the promotion of agricultural technology and the development of modern agriculture.For farmers who engaged in agricultural production is aging and of low level of education,which reduce the quality of agricultural labor;The land transfer market is not perfect.There are problems such as the close neighbor’s proximity,the irregularity of the circulation procedures and the opaque information of the land market;Some farmers lack of land for they abandon the contracted land to avoid paying taxes before the agricultural tax is completely abolished.But they are deeply worried about future when they go back to the rural land without available cultivatd land.(3)By and large,the scale return of rice was constanr while the using of all sorts of factors changed,which means Moderate Scale Operation was beneficial to per unit area yield and profit of planting rice.The results of the empirical study on Jianghan Plain show that rice production keeps constant returns to scale and has no scale economic phenomenon,and large-scale farmers’ performance of " rational-economic man" is more obvious;In the production factors,the maximum elasticity of production is land,which is the most important elements of agriculture production.The output elasticity of the labor force is positive,and its importance to rice production is becoming more and more prominent.The transfer of rural labor force and the phenomenon of peasant households make the dividend gradually disappear.Capital production elasticity is negative and almost zero,which reflects Jianghan Plain rice production in the existence of capital investment surplus phenomenon.In other words,agricultural production is gradually from labor-intensive to capital-intensive;Scale operation is moderate,rice yield showing the trend of change " rise first – fall next –rise again" with the increase in scale.From the perspective of profit and yield of per unit area,the best scale interval which is suitable for the current technical level and production conditions of Jianghan Plain rice cultivation is 2-6 hectares.(4)Land fragmentation,farmland productivity and farmer’s production characteristics played a significant role in food production.The results show that land fragmentation has a negative impact on grain production,that is,land fragmentation is not conducive to food production and agricultural production efficiency.When the high degree of land fragmentation and low input of agricultural labor force coexist,the changes of labor-intensive productin to capital-intensive can not be realized smoothly.The agricultural production efficiency is seriously affected;the fertility of cultivated land has a significant positive effect on grain production and agricultural production efficiency.But there exists the phenomenon of excessive chemical fertilizers and pesticides input in order to ensure production,while this action not do good to agricultural production,which will destroye soil in the long run.From the individual characteristics of the sample,the influence of the household age and the education level on the inefficiency of the households is significantly positive.With age increasing,farmers’ management on agricultural production’s new technologies and production capacity is weakened resulted in labor production skills gradually decline and production efficiency decreases.The education level of the households is positive for the inefficiency of technology,and the farmers with higher cultural level are more engaged in non-agricultural production,resulting in the decentralization of farmers and the deterioration of the agricultural production labor force;Regard to the planting process,the model results show that the amount of labor input and the inefficiency of the technology are negatively correlated.It is confirmed that the phenomenon of farmer’s concurrent work reduces the quality of agricultural production labor force and has a negative impact on agricultural production.In addition,the planting mode has a significant positive relationship with the inefficiency of technology,and the grain yield per unit area of rice transplanting is high,but the relative efficiency of factor allocation is not conducive to improving the overall efficiency of grain production.(5)Proper measures should be adopted to realize Moderate Scale Operation rapidly.The system dynamics model results show that in the current policy context,Jianghan Plain scale operation progress’ space is slow.the open of Population policy will not be threat to Jianghan Plain food security a period of time,improving the safety of cultivated land baseline,increasing the investment of cultivated land per unit area and increasing the proportion of grain cultivation is an effective measure to adjust food production.Then,the increase in the safety baseline of the arable land can quickly adjust the grain supply and speed up the pace of family farming,but this action is not conducive to the sustainable development of agriculture.At last,the increasing of population natural growth rate will slow down the scale of family farming to expand.Urbanization is the key to the scale of operation,only some farmers out of agricultural production,releasing cultivatd land and transfering reasonably,can achieve Land scale operation effectively. |
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