Research On Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methods For Renewable Energy Planning Project

Under the context of global low-carbon economy,renewable energy planning and development is an important way for countries to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction.How to use clean energy scientifically and efficiently is a major challenge facing humanity in the 21 st century.Energy planning involves identifying a suitable set of energy and conversion equipment to best meet energy needs.Renewable energy planning is a typical multi-criteria decision-making problem by comprehensively weighing geographical,technical,economic,environmental and social factors.In recent years,energy planning using multi-criteria analysis has caught the attention of researchers and managers.Over the past fifteen years,researchers have developed and proposed many real-value-based multi-criteria decision-making methods and decision support systems for assessing and selecting issues related to renewable energy planning in specific applications.In recent years,some scholars have considered the uncertain factors in decision-making into the renewable energy planning,and proposed some uncertain decision-making methods.However,such research can not fully solve the multi-criteria decision problem in this field.With the development of technology,economy and society,the complexity and environmental uncertainty of renewable energy planning decision-making problems are increasing,which can be regarded as uncertain decision-making problems with related criteria and alternatives under complex uncertain conditions.This task should take into account a number of conflicting aspects related to the increasing complexity of social,technological,environmental and economic factors.Expert knowledge and experience are important support for decision making under uncertain conditions.Expert judgment is a key factor in complex uncertain multi-criteria decision making.For the problem of renewable energy planning under uncertain conditions,the judgment or evaluation made by relevant experts based on a certain database or knowledge base can reflect more decision information.Therefore,it is necessary to conduct in-depth research on renewable energy planning based on expert judgment under uncertain conditions.This paper studies several types of multi-criteria decision-making problems in the field of renewable energy planning under uncertain conditions,including technology risk assessment,renewable energy project selection,and location of renewable energy projects.Due to the complexity of decision-making problems,high uncertainty and ambiguity of human cognition,it is difficult for relevant experts to evaluate the value of alternatives on certain criteria in some uncertain decision scenarios.Language semantic terminology information representation is an assessment tool that is more intuitive and closer to human thinking and judgment.In order to fully consider the uncertainty of the decision makers and the decision-making process,the decision-making experts evaluate the values on the criteria that cannot be accurately quantified based on their professional judgment and certain language evaluation principles,using language terms closer to human thinking,or Extension--hesitating a collection of linguistic terms to express their judgments and preferences.In addition,for the group decision-making problem involved,in order to further improve the flexibility and rationality of such decision-making,the decision criteria established in this paper allow group experts to give their own language information based on different language granularity or hesitant fuzzy based on the language granularity of their respective preferences.Language evaluation value.The evaluation values on the criteria that can be objectively and accurately quantified in the decision problem are represented by relatively accurate data.Thereby,improve the scientific,rational and decision-making flexibility of renewable energy planning in uncertain situations.The main research contents are:(1)A dynamic assessment method for investment risk of renewable energy technology based on expert judgment under uncertain conditions is proposed.This method allows experts to express their preferences and judgments in the form of linguistic information or hesitant linguistic information,and fully considers the dynamics of such decisions,and proposes a corresponding dynamic decision model.In addition,it proposes a language-based or hesitant language class.The method of determining the mixed objective weights of the decision matrix,the method simultaneously considers the influence of the differences of the evaluation values of the various alternatives in the weight determination process on each criteria,and the influence of the individual of the uncertain evaluation value.Because the linguistic information and the hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set itself contain uncertainty,the proposed hybrid criteria weight determination method needs to consider both the influence of the evaluation value of each option on each criteria and the influence of the individual of the uncertainty evaluation value.(2)A method for selecting renewable energy projects that can consider high uncertainty and complexity is proposed.In the case of a decision-making expert in a highly uncertain decision-making situation that may be hesitant in several alternatives or evaluation values,this paper proposes a renewable energy project that can comprehensively consider high uncertainty and complexity.A selection method that allows an expert to give an evaluation of the evaluation object’s various criteria in the form of a hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set.In addition,the proposed decision model also considers and reasonably handles the non-independent factors between criteria.Because renewable energy project selection is a multi-criteria decision-making problem that requires comprehensive consideration of technical,economic,social and environmental factors,where there is a high probability of interaction between criteria.In order to solve such high uncertainty and complexity problems,this paper proposes a method for selecting renewable energy projects based on the interaction amongcriteria and experts’ hesitant language evaluation under high uncertainty conditions.The method proposed here can consider more fuzzy information and uncertain factors,and handle the interaction between criteria more flexibly,thereby reducing decision-making pressure and improving decision-making efficiency.(3)The decision-making part of the renewable energy project site selection proposes a new group decision-making method,which allows different decision-making experts to give their judgments on the non-quantitative information in the decision matrix in the form of different granularity language or hesitant language.With the development of society and economy,social and environmental factors need to be taken into account in the decision-making process of renewable energy projects.These decision factors have different properties,and quantitative criteria(numerical values)coexist with qualitative criteria(linguistic variables,etc.).Among them,some criteria cannot be accurately measured and need to be judged by relevant experts.In the group decision-making framework established in this paper,the evaluation value of quantitative indicators can be given in numerical form.The indicators that cannot be accurately quantified are given by the relevant group experts based on the language granularity of their respective preferences,in the form of multi-granularity language or hesitant fuzzy language.The evaluation value is obtained.In the decision-making process,in order to aggregate the multi-dimensional values of each alternative in each criteria,a method of unifying the exact numerical values and multi-granularity language values is proposed,and the corresponding group decision-making model is established.In addition,the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified by case study and comparative analysis.The research results can provide theoretical support and practical guidance for the multi-criteria decision-making problem of renewable energy planning under uncertain conditions,so as to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of such decision-making problems.