Research On Evolution Mechanism And Process Simulation Of Arctic Route System Based On Complex Adaptive System Theory

The accelerated melting of Arctic sea ice makes the opening of the Arctic routes expected to become a reality.The opening of the Arctic routes has great economic value and strategic significance.It has also brought many problems,such as shipping problems,economic problems of Arctic routes,and problems of Arctic politics,economic and trade patterns.The problems caused by the Arctic routes are not isolated.The shipping environment and economic issues are important factors that affect the decision of the shipper and the carrier.The interaction between the carrier and the shipper has promoted the changes in the maritime network formed by ports and routes,thus affecting the changes in the country ’s trade pattern.The national political structure and trade demand will also lead to changes in shipper and carrier decisions,which will affect the structure of the shipping network.The Arctic route problems are comprehensive,and the Arctic route problems need to be studied from a systemic perspective.In addition,the opening of Arctic routes is expected to have a significant impact on the evolution of ocean freight flows,and it will also affect the competitive landscape of China’s container ports.Therefore,it is necessary to study the evolution of the shipping network under the influence of the Arctic route and the competition pattern of Chinese ports in it,so as to effectively plan and manage the future Chinese shipping industry,port industry and other industries.Based on the above research purposes,firstly,this article constructs the Arctic route system from the perspectives of the Arctic route system concept,subject and object,environment,characteristics,etc.,and analyzes the evolution mechanism of the Arctic route system from a theoretical perspective.Next,we did a process simulation of the evolution of the Arctic route system from three aspects: the agents’ pattern,the maritime network,and the maritime competition network,so as to achieve a comprehensive study of the Arctic route system theory,method and practice.The work of this thesis is as follows:(1)The concept of the Arctic route system is proposed,and the evolution mechanism of the Arctic route system is analyzed.First,the Arctic route system proposed in this thesis specifically refers to the organic and unified whole composed of relevant countries,ports,routes,shipping companies,shippers,brokers,land transportation routes,and economic,political,social,and cultural environments that are closely related to the Arctic route.In this unified whole,each agent in the system and between the agent and the environment influence and restrict each other,constantly evolving,showing a state of dynamic balance.Secondly,we analyzed the main body,objects and environment of the Arctic route system,the functions of the Arctic route system,and discussed the complex adaptability of the Arctic route system based on the theory of complex adaptive systems.Next,the evolution mode and evolution stage of the Arctic route system are analyzed.The adaptive behavior of the agents of the Arctic route system will promote the evolution of the Arctic route system from the stage of formation of spatial aggregates,the stage of growth of spatial aggregates,to the stage of emergence of spatial aggregates.Finally,the evolution mechanism of the Arctic route system is analyzed,including dynamic mechanism,learning mechanism,market mechanism,diversity mechanism,internal model mechanism,flow mechanism,and network mechanism.(2)The thesis analyzes the agents’ behaviors of the Arctic route system.Through the construction of the ports,routes,carriers,shippers,and environmental models under the Arctic route system,the characteristics of each agent’s behavior are analyzed.Then,this thesis uses the Swarm platform to simulate the behavior of agents and the evolution of container freight in the Arctic route system.The results show that the internal model of the Arctic route system can quantitatively describe the route decisions of the agent carriers and shippers in the system,explain the form and process of interaction between various agents,and quantitatively predict the evolution of the agents’ pattern of the system.It provides a good tool for the agent behavior inspection of the Arctic route system.The simulation results show that the natural environment is still the key factor restricting the development of transportation,and the improvement of technical conditions can improve the navigability of the Arctic route and contribute to the growth of cargo flow in the Arctic route system.In the process of the agents’ behaviors of the Arctic route system and the evolution of container freight,the agents present agglomeration characteristics,and the middle and high latitude ports in Asia present a relatively obvious centrality.(3)Based on the analysis of the agents’ behaviors of the Arctic route system,an improved weighted scale-free network model(BBV model)is used to predict the evolution of the maritime network of the Arctic route system from 2017 to 2035.The results show that,compared with the existing models,the results of the network evolution model constructed in this thesis is closer to the real network,which is an effective method to study the network evolution.In the maritime network of the Arctic route system,network nodes have gradually increased,and the average degree of network nodes shows an upward trend.The closeness of internal links in the shipping network has increased,and the network scale is more uneven.The hub ports of the existing shipping network,which are located in East Asia,Northwest Europe and North America,show that the effects of the Arctic routes are more important.Among the ports of the Arctic route,the ports along the Northeast route,Sabetta,Reykjavik,Dickson and the ports along the Northwest route,Iqaluit,have the greatest development potential.(4)On the basis of obtaining the evolution result of the maritime network of the Arctic route system,the main structure of the maritime network is extracted by the multi-flow method.On this basis,build a competitive network and conduct an in-depth analysis of the competitive landscape of Chinese ports.The results show that in the process of evolution,the significant flows in the flow network of the Arctic route system show a fluctuating trend.This shows that the cargo flows in the flow network of the Arctic route system are affected by two factors.On the one hand,the introduction of the Arctic route has increased the corresponding significant flow.In addition,the evolution of the Arctic route system has led to a trend of concentration among the original ports.Analyzing the competitive landscape of China’s container ports under the evolution of the Arctic route system,Guangzhou has always been the most competitive port in China.In terms of international competition for Chinese ports,Chinese ports that face greater competition from foreign ports are always larger and have stronger hinterland economies.Among China ’s foreign ports,Busan is always a major competitor of China ’s container ports.