Seaport Spatial Planning Considering Un-Certainty

Under the guidance of the basic national policies of saving resources and protecting the environment,the evaluation of the last round of port planning,port scale optimization,and water area planning are facing uncertainties and stochastic factors in the process of seaport spatial planning.Therefore,this study focuses on key technologies of port spatial planning under uncertain conditions.First of all,considering the uncertainty of port planning assessment,a remote sensing image-based port resource identification and dynamic monitoring framework and algorithms(IMG-PRIDMF)are proposed,with the help of machine learning and manual interpretation.And the results show that the IMG-PRIDMF effectively improves the accuracy of port resource identification,and provides basic data and constraints for the new round of port planning.Secondly,considering the uncertainty of predicted port throughputs,a multi-stage stochastic dynamic programming model(MSSDP-PSO-UC model)is proposed for port scale optimization under uncertain conditions,in which a Markov chain-based model with the deviation between actual and predicted throughputs as random variable.Compared with the deterministic optimization model,the MSSDP-PSO-UC model produces more reliable and robust decision making,which can relatively reduce investment risks and ensure the common interests of both ports and shipping companies.Finally,considering the quantification of indicator for green port planning with uncertainty,an optimization model of port water area planning under uncertainty(OMPWAP-UC model)is put forward with the help of a simulation optimization-based algorithm,which minimizes the dredging cost of channel and berth,the cost due to the ship waiting and port underutilization as well as the carbon emission of ships in port.A case study verifies the effectiveness of the OM-PWAP-UC model which improves the port service level and meets the requirements of environmental protection.In summary,this study focuses on key technologies in spatial planning considering the uncertainties and uncertainties that may be encountered in port planning,which can provide theoretical support for the integrated planning of ports,port groups,and urban agglomerations and transportation.