An Interval Stochastic Energy-water Nexus System Based Power System Planning

Energy is an important material basis for maintaining the rapid development of the national economy and improving people's living standards.With the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization in China,the energy demand and consumption are increasing,and the contradiction between energy supply and demand is becoming increasingly prominent.At the same time,the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources is becoming increasingly prominent.China is a country with severe water shortage.Water resources are of great significance to China's economic development and social progress.However,the previous energy system planning often neglected the consideration of water resources.In the context of China's sustainable development,reasonable allocation of energy is the key to achieving improved energy efficiency and improved ecological environment.Therefore,it is necessary to provide effective planning solutions to decision makers in regional energy system planning.This study is based on the relationship between energy,water resources,economy and environment,considering the large amount of uncertainty in the energy system itself,and developing an inter-random energy-water system planning modelIn this study,Xiamen was taken as the research area,combined with the current status of Xiamen' s local energy system structure,energy supply and demand,water resources supply and demand,and air pollutant emission requirements,and local development planning,the use of interval opportunity constraint planning was established to minimize system costs.It is a planning model for the objective function The planning period is 15 years in the future.It takes into account energy demand constraints,energy supply constraints,energy and water related constraints,and pollutant emission control constraints.The results of the model can provide a reasonable power supply plan,generator set and heat.expansion plan,air pollutant emission reduction plan,and water resource supply plan for the Xiamen district energy system planning.According to the analysis of different default probabilities(qi=0.01,0.05,0.10)of power supply and capacity expansion,thermal power supply and capacity expansion,air pollutant emissions,water resources supply and system cost,the results show that:(1)With the increase in the proportion of clean energy power generation in Xiamen,traditional coal-fired power generation will gradually decline,and clean energy power generation generally shows an upward trend.At the same time,the discharge of pollutants has gradually decreased.(2)In the next 15 years Xiamen's local power generation structure will be characterized by coal-fired power generation,supplemented by gas-fired power generation,and supplemented by other peower generation methods.It is necessary to further increase support for clean energy development and increase the proportion of clan energy power generatidon.(3)In terms.of heat su pply,the heat supply of coal-fired cageneratian is gradually reduced and the heat supply of gas-fired cogeneration is gradually increased,which is in line with the govenment's implementation of gas-fired cogeneration projects and coal-to-gas conversion measures.(4)In terms of water resource utilization,surface water is still the main source of power generation and heating,and the amount of groundwater used remains stable,which is in line with government departments'measures to limit groundwater exploitation.In the future,the water resources management of Xiamen should pay more attention to the reuse of water and the sustainable development benefits of water resources.