Research On Risk Management Of Power Supply Chain Based On Complex Network

In 2020,China proposed for the first time the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality,which means that carbon dioxide aims to reach its peak by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Electricity,as an important clean energy source,is an important energy foundation for economic and social development and people’s well-being.With the establishment of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,the power industry not only plays a fundamental and supportive role in ensuring the safe and reliable supply of electricity,but also becomes a key reform area in China’s process of achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.As the largest producer and consumer of electric energy,in recent years,China has made significant breakthroughs in both the reform of the power system and the development of power technology through continuous practical exploration.In terms of electricity system reform,China has promoted the construction of an electricity market system aimed at restoring the essential attributes of electricity commodities;By gradually expanding the development and sales sides,market competition mechanisms have been introduced,continuously improving the overall operational efficiency of the electricity market;By prioritizing power purchase rights and shaping power generation weights,we encourage clean energy power generation,promote clean energy grid access,and effectively promote the further deepening of energy conservation and emission reduction mechanisms.In terms of tackling key core technologies of electric power,China’s technology research and development and application level in power generation,power transmission and distribution and other fields has reached the forefront of the world,including ultra High-voltage direct current,flexible DC transmission,ultra supercritical power generation,High-temperature gas reactor nuclear power generation and other technologies that have reached the world’s leading level.Although China has made remarkable achievements in the reform of the power system and technological progress,from the perspective of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals,as well as green,low-carbon,and sustainable development of the power industry,China still needs to implement more powerful and fundamental reform measures on the path of power energy transformation and development.In this process,the power industry will also face new and more risks and uncertainties.The power supply chain includes many links such as power generation,transmission,distribution,and sales,as well as node enterprises such as power generation enterprises,power grid enterprises,and sales enterprises.Business transactions between them are conducted through multiple methods such as energy flow,information flow,and capital flow.Therefore,the power supply chain risk is not only a point risk,nor a line risk,but also a systemic risk involving multiple levels,multiple angles,multiple links,and complex network characteristics.In the existing research on the risks of the power supply chain,most of it focuses on a specific field and specific behavior of theoretical research,such as the research on the return risk of the power supply chain,the research on the incentive mechanism of the power market,etc.,and there is relatively little systematic research carried out in combination with China’s current efforts to achieve carbon peaking,carbon neutrality,and goals.Therefore,based on economics and management,this paper studies the risk management of the power supply chain from the perspective of complex network,risk assessment,risk relationship,risk decision-making and other aspects,so as to further enhance the power supply chain’s ability to resist risks,ensure safe and reliable power supply,and help achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.The main research content of this paper includes the following four aspects:Firstly,it comprehensively analyzes the risks in the power supply chain,summarizes the external and internal factors that cause the risks in the power supply chain,and demonstrates the six dimensions of risks in the power supply chain by using the hierarchical holographic model and integrating the fuzzy evaluation results.This paper summarizes the main methods used for supply chain risk management research,and proposes energy transformation risks and macro environmental risks from the perspective of external factors that generate risks;From the perspective of internal factors that generate risks,general enterprise risks,internal risks within node enterprises,and risks between node enterprises are proposed.In order to further summarize the significant risk hazards in the power supply chain,this paper constructs a hierarchical holographic method to form a power supply chain risk model that includes six dimensions:goal,nature,society,operation,management,and industrial chain.Based on expert survey questionnaire results,two stages of filtering were conducted on risks and risk factors,eliminating those with smaller impact,finally,a power supply chain risk model covering 28 risks and 73 risk factors from 6 dimensions was constructed.Secondly,from the perspective of complex network,the enterprise node centrality is studied,and process centrality and fusion centrality indicators are proposed.Combined with the constructed risk impact fuzzy evaluation matrix and risk weight fuzzy evaluation matrix,the enterprise node and the whole risk of the power supply chain are evaluated.Aiming at the complex network of power supply chain composed of enterprise nodes,based on the analysis of degree centrality,betweenness centrality and proximity centrality of enterprise nodes,the process centrality index that can reflect the actual situation of power supply chain operation is proposed through fuzzy evaluation method and the actual situation of energy flow,information flow and capital flow between enterprise nodes.Through the centrality of node degree,betweenness centrality,proximity centrality and process centrality,after European distance processing,the fusion centrality index is formed,which represents the importance of power supply chain enterprise nodes in complex network.By introducing the fuzzy evaluation matrix of risk impact and the fuzzy evaluation matrix of risk weight,and combining with the fusion centrality index,the final result of power supply chain risk evaluation that can reflect the characteristics of the complex network of power supply chain enterprise nodes and the actual situation of power supply chain operation is obtained.Thirdly,the interpretive structure model is applied to the study of power supply chain risk management.Combining the characteristics of risk nodes in the complex network theory,the change law and hierarchical relationship of power supply chain risk are explained,and the difference of power supply chain risk and its hierarchical risk impact is demonstrated.By constructing the risk adjacency matrix of power supply chain,the direct relationship between different risks is presented.By calculating the reachability matrix,the reachability relationship between risks was formed,and the source risk,process risk,and final risk were sorted out.By layering the reachability matrix,it is demonstrated that some risks in the power supply chain have fully interconnected characteristics.Using the fuzzy interpretive structural model,the relationship between power supply chain risks under different granularity is demonstrated by adjusting the intercept.By using the concepts of node degree,node distance and node density of complex network,the risk node relationship strength matrix and judgment matrix are constructed,and the impact strength relationship of different levels of risks is obtained.The research results indicate that among all levels of risks in the power supply chain,the average impact degree of the first level ranks second.This level mainly includes risks related to power safety production and achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals,and the impact degree judgment values of each risk are generally high.Fourthly,the network analytic hierarchy process is used to construct the power supply chain risk decision model based on the risk frequency,risk loss and risk uncontrollability.The power supply chain criteria and risk advantages are obtained to provide support for improving the power supply chain risk decision-making level.By comparing the risk matrix,unweighted hypermatrix,weighted hypermatrix,and extreme hypermatrix of the power supply chain,the weight of the risk advantage degree of the power supply chain was obtained.The calculation results show that in terms of risk decision-making criteria for the power supply chain,risk uncontrollability>risk loss>risk frequency.In terms of power supply chain risk,the advantage of system stability risk is the highest.This indicator is not only related to the safe and stable operation of the power system,but also to the achievement of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals.The second risk with a high degree of advantage is natural disaster risk,which is consistent with the research results of decision-making criteria.Although the frequency of natural disasters is not high,they are highly uncontrollable when encountering extreme natural disasters.Therefore,increasing the prediction and prevention of natural disasters,improving the ability to respond to extreme natural disasters,and reducing the risk of the power supply chain are of great significance.The innovation points studied in this paper are mainly reflected in the following four aspects:Firstly,it breaks through the previous research framework that focuses on the local risk of power supply chain,and conducts a systematic study on the overall risk of power supply chain from the perspective of complex network.In previous related studies,individual or local risks were mostly studied,such as the operational risks of power generation enterprises and power grid enterprises,and the risks of power system operation and power market transactions.However,there was relatively little research on the overall and systematic risks of the power industry.In reality,the power industry involves a long and extensive industrial chain,requiring not only a focus on local key risks,but also an overall grasp of the risks in the power industry.Secondly,based on the node centrality of complex network,the index system of power supply chain risk research is further expanded,and the essential characteristics of power supply chain operation risk are revealed by using fuzzy evaluation method.From the perspective of complex network structure,the node risk of power supply chain enterprises is positively related to the degree of the node.The more directly related nodes,the higher the intermediate number,the greater-the role of the node in the power supply chain.However,the evaluation of node risk of power supply chain only through the theoretical characteristics of complex network is inconsistent with the reality.Therefore,this paper evaluates the importance of enterprise nodes based on the actual situation of energy flow,information flow,and capital flow during the operation of the power supply chain,and uses this as an important basis for evaluating the risk of the power supply chain.Thirdly,the hierarchical structure of power supply chain risk was demonstrated,and on this basis,the variation pattern of power supply chain risk with the change of intercept was revealed.Quantitative analysis and research on the impact of power supply chain risk nodes and their respective levels were achieved.According to the results of risk hierarchy and the changes in the correlation between risks,it reflects that node enterprises often pay more attention to risks in core areas,or indicates that enterprises tend to pay more attention to risks in a certain aspect at a certain stage.This advantage is that the cost investment of risk management is relatively small.By focusing on the key points and focusing on the large and small,risks related to the core interests of the enterprise and the long-term development of the enterprise can be controlled with focus.However,at the same time,due to the lack of consideration and control measures for risks with lower correlation,there is a lack of coarseness and refinement in risk management,leading to an increase in the frequency and frequency of risk occurrence,which has a certain impact on the enterprise.Fourthly,centering on the goal of power supply chain risk management,taking complex network risk decision-making as the starting point,this paper demonstrates the criteria and risk advantage level in the process of power supply chain risk decision-making,and realizes the power supply chain risk management decision-making that takes into account both the macro level and the micro level.In this paper,the decision-making goal of power supply chain risk management is to help achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals while ensuring safe,reliable,and stable power supply.By calculating the risk comparison matrix,unweighted hypermatrix,weighted hypermatrix,and extreme hypermatrix of the power supply chain,the weight of the risk advantage degree of the power supply chain is analyzed,and the principles and laws that should be followed in the risk decision-making process of the power supply chain are revealed.