Analysis Of Autonomous Bus Passenger Choice Preferences And Pricing Model Research

As a new type of public transportation,autonomous buses have the advantages of safety,environmental protection and convenience,and can provide efficient travel services and promote the development of intelligent transportation.Although the market for autonomous buses is vast,there is still much work to be done for autonomous buses to be successfully put into market operation.Taking autonomous buses as the research object,this paper conducts a study on passengers’ preference analysis of autonomous buses and their pricing,with a view to providing a decision basis for the market promotion of autonomous buses,providing methodological guidelines for the commercial operation of autonomous buses,providing scientific guidance for improving the efficiency of public transportation,and promoting the integration and development of autonomous buses with traditional buses.Starting from self-driving technology,the classification of its levels and regulatory system are elaborated,the connotation of autonomous bus is defined,the technical characteristics of autonomous bus as an emerging technology integrated into traditional transportation modes are explained,the characteristics of autonomous bus services in different cities at home and abroad are analyzed,and the service mode of autonomous bus promotion in China is defined in combination with traditional bus service types,taking into account line length,station spacing and operating speed,etc.Considering the characteristics of route length,station spacing and operating speed,a three-level classification of autonomous bus services is proposed,with its functional positioning as backbone bus service,liaison bus service and auxiliary bus service.The research object and research scope of this paper are defined from multiple angles and levels in terms of automation level,technical characteristics,service category and service level.The social challenges for the marketing and promotion of autonomous buses are dissected in terms of public acceptance and operational benefits.From the perspective of passengers’ subjective cognition and psychology,a model of passengers’ preference for autonomous buses was developed,incorporating the characteristics of autonomous buses in terms of intelligence,safety and environmental protection,and a scale was developed to measure passengers’ preference for autonomous buses.A cross-sectional questionnaire was used to collect 1115 data,and a structural equation modeling method with partial least squares algorithm was used to test the validity of the model and evaluate the model,revealing the mechanism of each influencing factor in the decision making process of passengers’ acceptance of autonomous buses.It was found that attitude and perceived usefulness were the strongest predictors of passengers’ intention to use autonomous buses,and perceived ease of use indirectly influenced intention to use through the mediating role of attitude and perceived usefulness.Personal norms,subjective norms,and perceived behavioral control also significantly influenced passengers’ behavioral intentions to use autonomous buses.Perceived risk was negatively related to passengers’ behavioral intention to use autonomous bus services.The comparative model analysis revealed that the research model proposed in this paper explains better explanatory strength compared to the established models,explaining73.2% of the variance in behavioral intention.In addition,the study found heterogeneity in the preferences of riders with different socioeconomic attributes(e.g.,gender,age,and education level)for the use of autonomous buses.Considering the conventional bus tariffs similar to the autonomous bus service,the payment price preference is divided into seven price ranges,the socio-economic attributes and willingness-to-pay statement preferences of passengers are investigated,a survey scale containing passenger comfort,ride convenience,perceived benefit,perceived risk and trust is designed,and a structural equation model with partial least squares algorithm is used to analyze and obtain that ride convenience is a factor affecting the payment price preference.The key factors are Drawing on expected utility theory and prospect theory,a method is proposed to calculate the payment preference of autonomous buses considering cost loss and passenger sentimental value.The expected utility function is introduced to quantify the cost loss,and the probabilistic modeling technique is used to measure the sentimental value of passengers.The probability of passengers’ preference for autonomous bus travel when they have to pay different amounts of bus fares is derived.The results show that the average price preference paid by respondents for autonomous buses is similar to that of traditional bus fares,at $2.1.There is heterogeneity in the price that passengers with different socioeconomic attributes prefer to pay for autonomous buses.In addition,it was found that the change in the fare of autonomous buses had a significant impact on passenger preference for payment,corresponding to seven price ranges of paid fares,with the probabilities of passenger preference for autonomous bus trips being 0.69,0.92,0.83,0.71,0.65,0.26,and 0.07,respectively.Differences in cost structure,technology innovation costs,service quality and government subsidy policies may lead to differences in pricing between autonomous buses and traditional buses.Based on the double oligopoly bus market composed of autonomous bus and traditional bus,we consider the influence of network externalities on the pricing decision in the bus market,and analyze the pricing decision process in the bus market under three market composition conditions: market equilibrium,autonomous bus-dominated market,and traditional bus-dominated market,respectively,by introducing passenger preferences,and by maximizing the profits of autonomous bus companies and traditional bus companies,we establish three game pricing models: a price competition model with passenger preference equilibrium,a price competition model with passenger preference for autonomous buses,and a price competition model with passenger preference for traditional buses.The optimal pricing for autonomous buses and conventional buses,the optimal ratio for autonomous bus companies to expand their market share,and the most reasonable amount of capital for autonomous bus companies to invest in promotion are derived for different market competition situations.It is found that for each party,the profit and price differences among the three pricing strategies are significant only when the value of the externality coefficient is above a threshold.In addition,from the perspective of government investment in the promotion of autonomous buses,it is more effective for the government to adopt an incomplete promotion strategy in a price competition model with passenger preference for autonomous buses,and the government’s incomplete promotion strategy results in more profits for the autonomous bus companies if the externality coefficient is below a threshold value.In addition,the effect of passenger diversityseeking behavior on pricing in the two-stage pricing model is considered,and the results show that both autonomous bus companies and conventional bus companies adopt higher prices in the first stage when there is passenger diversity-seeking bus service,and that passenger preference diversity generates higher profits for both companies.Based on the results of autonomous bus passenger choice preference analysis and pricing decision research,countermeasures are proposed to guide passenger demand by outputting higher emotional expectations than traditional buses,countermeasures to improve social benefits by developing a top-level promotion plan and strengthening publicity guidance,and countermeasures to improve economic benefits by improving service levels and scientifically setting fares.Through the integrated development of passengers,government,and enterprises,the market promotion of autonomous buses is promoted.