Research On Influence Mechanism And Intervention Method Of Unsafe Behavior Of Maritime Pilots

The increasingly busy traffic in port waters leads to increasing complexity and uncertainty in the process of maritime pilotage operations,and further threatens the safety of maritime pilotage.As a pilot who leads ships in and out of the port,due to various reasons such as their piloting experience,piloting skills,physiology,psychology,the guided ship,and the superposition of unfavorable hydrometeorological environment and sudden,complex traffic situations on the water surface,the unsafe behavior of pilots often occur.The pilotage accident caused is not only the accident itself,but may also lead to the reduction of port navigation efficiency,environmental pollution damage,damaged domestic and international reputation of the port,and even the paralysis of the port,resulting in a global supply chain crisis and economic crisis.Therefore,it is of great significance to carry out research on the influence mechanism and intervention methods of unsafe behavior of maritime pilots for ensuring the safety of pilotage in port waters and preventing pilotage accidents and disasters.Based on behavioral science theory,this paper studies unsafe behaviors from the perspectives of behavioral impact,behavioral characteristics and behavioral intervention,effectively revealing the underlying mechanism and characteristics of unsafe behaviors,and effectively intervening on behaviors.Combined with the actual situation of pilotage operations,scientifically integrating behavior theory,structural equation model,dynamic Bayesian network,system dynamics model and other related theories and methods,a method for identifying the influence mechanism of unsafe behavior based on the pilot behavior model(ESOR-SMH)is proposed,a quantitative evaluation model for the characteristics of unsafe behavior of pilots in the piloting process is constructed.On this basis,a dual intervention method for pilot unsafe behavior is established.Taking the piloting process of Shanghai port as an example,this study revealed the influence mechanism of unsafe behavior of pilots,found the characteristics and regularity of unsafe behavior of pilots during the piloting process,and evaluated the effects of 8 proposed intervention strategies and methods.The complete set of unsafe behavior influence mechanism and intervention method can be applied to the pilotage operations in the piloting process,to determine the regulatory focus of pilot unsafe behavior for pilotage agencies and maritime authorities,and to further improve the level of pilotage safety by taking practical and effective intervention measures of the unsafe behavior,which has important theoretical significance and application value.The main research work and scientific progress are as follows:(1)The theoretical framework model of pilot unsafe behavior is proposed,and the influence mechanism of unsafe behavior is revealed.Integrating the SOR model,the SHEL model,the MMEM system model and the HFACS system,a behavior model of maritime pilots(ESOR-SMH)is proposed.With reference to the definition and classification of unsafe behavior,the HFACS system is used to design "pilotage accident case investigation and cause analysis table".Combined with the actual pilotage operation,the theoretical framework model of unsafe behavior is put forward,and mathematical statistics and structural equation model is used to analyze the impact mechanism of the collected 921 pilotage accident cases.The results show that:pilot’s status,unsafe supervision,environmental factors,factors of crew and other parties have a significant impact on pilot unsafe behavior,while organizational influence and ship factors have no significant impact on pilot unsafe behavior.Moreover,unsafe supervision,factors of crew and other parties have higher path coefficients for pilot unsafe behavior.This mechanism study provides a basis for further evaluating the characteristics of unsafe behavior in the piloting process.(2)A quantitative evaluation model of pilot unsafe behavior characteristics in the piloting process based on dynamic Bayesian network is constructed.Taking the piloting process of Shanghai port as an example,the characteristic diagnosis of the pilotage behavior of each stage is carried out.Based on the questionnaires of 156 maritime pilots and using dynamic Bayesian network analysis technology,a feature evaluation model of unsafe behavior in the piloting process was constructed,and quantitative empirical evidence was carried out under two scenarios of pilots of different levels and entering the port at different tidal windows.The results show that pilots of different levels have differences in the performance and influencing factors of unsafe behavior in each pilotage stage,and physiological state and environmental factors play a key role in the unsafe behavior of pilots;the key influencing factors of unsafe behavior under each tidal window are different when entering the port in different tidal windows,and the pilotage behavior of the high ebb tide,the first settling tide and the low ebb tide is better.The evaluation model deeply reveals the characteristics and key influencing factors of pilot unsafe behavior in each pilotage stage,which supporting pilot agencies and maritime authorities to reasonably grasp the key influencing factors of pilot unsafe behavior.(3)A dual intervention method for pilot unsafe behavior based on system dynamics is established.Based on the results of the impact mechanism and the evaluation of process characteristics,8 intervention strategy sets in the long-term and short-term dimensions from the perspective of behavioral intervention are proposed,the interaction between the intervention objects and factors corresponding to each intervention method is clarified,a system dynamics intervention model for pilot unsafe behavior is constructed,and the intervention effect of various intervention methods and comprehensive intervention methods on pilot unsafe behavior is evaluated.The results show that the support of ship’s party,supervision and reminder in the short-term intervention method and the organizational atmosphere in the long-term intervention strategy have better intervention effect.The comprehensive use of the intervention strategy set can reduce the level of pilot unsafe behavior by 18.98%.This intervention method can provide decision-making reference for pilot agencies and maritime authorities to intervene in pilot behavior.