Research On Self-Organizing Evolution Of Photovoltaic Industry Chain System In China

With the global energy shortage and environmental pollution problems,the development of renewable energy including photovoltaic power generation has become the consensus of all countries in the world.The photovoltaic(PV)industry has become a strategic and positive-oriented industry with international competitive advantages in China.In recent years,driven by policy guidance and market demand,China’s PV industry has developed rapidly,the scale of the industry has expanded rapidly,and its comprehensive strength has been significantly enhanced.The market share of all links in the industry chain has ranked first in the world for many years,and has formed in technology and cost.The international competitive advantage has formed a mature and competitive PV industry chain and has become an important PV power in the world.However,the development of the PV industry is also facing the imbalance between supply and demand caused by the rapid expansion of supply and the slowdown or even decline in demand.The pressure on price competition has increased sharply,and the foreign trade situation has become more severe.Facing the complicated and ever-changing domestic and international situation,and affected by factors such as policy,technology,market,enterprise and economic environment,there are many uncertainties in the development of the industry.This will hinder the healthy and orderly and sustainable development of the photovoltaic industry and affect the realization of the self-organizational evolution of the industry.The process of self-organization evolution is an orderly,organized and systematic process.The self-organizational evolution of industry can fundamentally enhance industrial competitiveness.Therefore,the self-organization state is the ideal state of industrial development.Based on the above background,this paper studies the self-organization evolution of photovoltaic industry chain system from the perspective of self-organization theory,grasps the inherent law of system development,and conforms to the inevitable requirements of economic development under the new situation.This will not only reduce the increasing environmental pressure and energy shortage pressure in the context of economic globalization,but also enhance China’s ability to cope with environmental changes.At the same time,it helps to systematically analyze the overall characteristics and evolution of China’s PV industry chain development.It is of great theoretical value and practical guiding significance to expand the photovoltaic industry theory,find a path more in line with the self-organized evolution of the photovoltaic industry in China,and formulate policies and strategies for the development of the photovoltaic industry for the macro-level decision-makers.ivBased on the analysis of the development status of China’s PV industry,this paper builds a complex network system for China’s PV industry chain based on complex system theory.Taking the self-organization theory system as the main line,this paper deeply studies the initial conditions,evolutionary dynamics and evolution path of the self-organization evolution of the PV industry chain system,and evaluates and predicts the evolution level,proposes certain policy recommendations,enriches and improves the theory of the evolution of the industrial chain system.The main research results of this paper are:(1)Determination of dissipative structure of PV industry Chain system.Based on the theory of dissipative structure,the PV industry chain system satisfies the necessary conditions for constructing the dissipative structure from four aspects: system open mechanism,non-equilibrium mechanism,nonlinear mechanism and stochastic fluctuation mechanism.Then construct and optimize the entropy flow index system of the PV industry chain system,and use the Brusselator model to judge whether the PV industry chain system in China forms a dissipative structure.Through research,it is believed that China’s PV industry chain system has objective conditions for constructing dissipative structure,that is,the system is open,in a non-equilibrium state,there are nonlinear interactions among subsystems in the system,and the state of the system changes.China’s photovoltaic industry chain system has already possessed the above conditions,and the system has gradually formed a dissipative structure.Through continuous research on the factors affecting the formation of dissipative structures,the paper proposes policy guidance on the recovery and reuse of photovoltaic waste,improves the technology of photovoltaic waste recycling,reasonable use of government subsidies,and improves relevant laws and regulations.Policies and other methods to promote the stability of the photovoltaic industry chain system dissipation structure.(2)Research on the dynamics of self-organization evolution of photovoltaic industry Chain system.Based on the theory of synergy,the state parameters that influence the self-organization evolution of the PV industry chain system are selected.The state parameters are filtered by the gray correlation degree and attribute reduction.Then,according to the servo principle,the adiabatic elimination method is used to identify the order parameters.The photovoltaic industry chain system synergy model is constructed to measure the order degree and synergistic evolution level of each subsystem in the system,and then deeply analyze the driving force of the self-organization evolution of China’s PV industry chain.According to the research,the order parameters of the self-organization evolution of the PV industry chain system are: polysilicon production,cell production,photovoltaic power generation,and government subsidies.In 2008-2017,the coordination degree of the order parameters of China’s PV industry chain system showed a slow upward trend as a whole,but there was a certain decline in 2012 and 2015,resulting in a low overall degree of synergy and an increase in the degree of synergy in the future.Slow down until the 2016 rate of increase is accelerated.The reason is that insufficient technological innovation,insufficient government subsidies,and gradual decrease in cost reductions have led to a slowdown in the growth of polysilicon and cell output,and the lack of sustained growth in new cumulative grid-connected installed capacity.China’s PV industry chain system is driven by its own driving force,endogenous driving force,exogenous pulling power and joint driving force in the process of self-organization and evolution,and forms the order parameter driving mechanism,the fusion dynamic mechanism,the guiding feedback mechanism and Collaborative innovation-driven mechanism and other dynamic mechanisms to jointly promote the coordinated evolution of the system and the improvement of self-organization level.(3)Research on Self-Organization Evolution Path and Implementation Mode of Photovoltaic Industry Chain System.Analysis of the Gradual and Catastrophic Process of Self-Organization Evolution of PV Industry Chain System Based on Catastrophe Theory.Divide the path of PV industry chain development into three development stages: chain-based leading development model,chain-based leading development model and chain-based leading development model.Put forward eight hypotheses and construct partial least squares-structural equation model(PLS-SEM)for empirical research.After the significance test,reliability and validity test,the empirical research results are obtained.It shows that the development path of China’s PV industry chain is: successively undergoing the chain-based dominant mode,the chain-based dominant mode,and the chain-based dominant mode,and finally realize self-organization evolution.The first two phases are the gradual phase,and the third phase is the abrupt phase of the industrial chain.The three evolutionary stages realize the evolution from low-level order to high-order order through cooperative competition and risk sharing,coordination and guarantee,and synergistic symbiosis.(4)Evaluation and prediction of the self-organization evolution level of the PV industry chain system.The self-organization evolution level evaluation system of China’s PV industry chain system is constructed from the perspectives of development level and synergy level.The system evolution level model is used to measure the level of system self-organization evolution in 2008-2017,and the cloud model is used to quantitatively divide the evolution level.Evaluation of the self-organization evolution level of China’s PV industry chain system: In the 10 years from 2008 to 2017,the overall self-organizational evolution level of the system showed an increasing trend.In the ten years from2008 to 2017,the overall self-organized evolution level of the system showed a rising trend,gradually transitioning from a low evolution level stage to a lower evolution level stage.Based on the gray theory,using the metabolic GM(1,1)gray prediction model to predict the self-organized evolution level of the Chinese photovoltaic industry chain system.It is expected that in the next five years,the self-organized evolution level of China’s photovoltaic industry chain system will continue to maintain a stable and orderly growth trend,and will enter the middle evolution level stage from the lower evolution level stage.Finally,on the basis of the empirical research results,the policy recommendations for promoting the self-organized evolution of China’s PV industry chain system are put forward,and the direction of future research needs to be pointed out.