Research On The Realization Path And Strategy Of Carbon Peak And Carbon Neutrality In Petroleum And Petrochemical Industry

The problem of global climate change caused by carbon emissions has becomed more and more serious,and natural disasters such as extreme weather,land drought,insect pests and forest fires occur frequently.Countries around the world are taking a number of measures to effectively mitigate global warming.Data from the International Energy Agency shows that in 2022,global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions were36.8 billion tons,of which China’s was 12.1 billion tons,accounting for 32.88%of the total,ranking first in the world.The petroleum and petrochemical industry is an important industry to ensure national energy security.It is also an industry with high consumption of fossil energy.As a result,the energy consumption and carbon emission of the petroleum and petrochemical industry rank top among industries in China.Therefore,it is of great significance to clarify the path and strategy for the realization of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals in the petroleum and petrochemical industry for China’s realization of“dual carbon”goals,low-carbon and green development,smooth transition from“energy consumption dual control”to“carbon dual control”and formulation of carbon emission reduction strategies.Based on the above background and purpose,this paper systematically reviews theories related to carbon emissions,such as sustainable development theory,low-carbon economy theory,environmental Kuznets curve theory,and economic theory of carbon emission reduction responsibility allocation.On the basis of summarizing domestic and foreign researches on carbon peaking and carbon neutrality:carbon emission and evolution characteristics of petroleum and petrochemical industry,the selection and decomposition of influencing factors of carbon emission in the petroleum and petrochemical industry,the path of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the petroleum and petrochemical industry,the mechanism of“carbon dual control”and the responsibility of carbon emission reduction in the petroleum and petrochemical industry,the realization strategy of the“carbon dual”goal in the petroleum and petrochemical industry and other scientific issues are studied.The core work of this paper is summarized as follows:（1）Carbon emission coefficient method and input-output method are used to re-calculate the carbon emissions of petroleum and petrochemical industries.This paper for the first time analyzes the spatial-temporal pattern and evolution characteristics of carbon dioxide emissions of petroleum and petrochemical industries respectively from the perspectives of direct carbon emissions and embodied carbon emissions at national,regional and industrial scales.It is found that there is a significant difference between total direct carbon emissions and embodied carbon emissions in the petroleum and petrochemical industries,and the difference value between embodied carbon emissions and direct carbon emissions in the petroleum and petrochemical industries fluctuates,and its fluctuation pattern is basically consistent with the change pattern of embodied carbon emission curve.In addition,the petroleum processing,coking and nuclear fuel processing industries and the chemical industry are the major contributors to the increase of carbon emissions from the petroleum and petrochemical industries.（2）Based on the perspective of“carbon dual control”,the selection mechanism of influencing factors of carbon emission was designed,the decomposition model of driving factors of carbon dioxide emission in the petroleum and petrochemical industry is constructed by using the LMDI index decomposition method,and the driving factors of carbon dioxide variation in different regions and industries of the petroleum and petrochemical industry are decomposed and analyzed respectively.Then,the carbon emission reduction effects of driving factors in petroleum and petrochemical industries are evaluated at national and regional scales.The results show that the economic growth effect has a significant positive driving effect on CO₂ emissions in the petroleum and petrochemical industry,and the energy structure effect has a significant negative inhibiting effect.（3）Considering the particularity of the petroleum and petrochemical industry,this paper constructs the LEAP platform based carbon peak,carbon neutrality path model of the petroleum and petrochemical industry,namely LEAP-PPI model.From the dual perspectives of direct carbon emissions and implied carbon emissions,this model is used to simulate and predict the carbon dioxide emissions of the petroleum and petrochemical industry from 2021 to2060 under different policy scenarios,so as to select the path to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality in the petroleum and petrochemical industry,and to compare and analyze whether there are differences in the path to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality under different accounting systems.The results show that,under different scenarios,there are significant differences in the emissions of petroleum and petrochemical industry in the“carbon peaking”year and the“carbon neutrality”year.Under the baseline scenario,the petroleum and petrochemical industry cannot achieve the carbon peaking target before 2030,but under the policy scenario and the enhanced policy scenario,the carbon peaking target can be achieved.However,the embodied carbon emissions of China’s petroleum and petrochemical industry cannot achieve the carbon peak target in all three scenarios.In addition,there are differences in the years and scenarios in which carbon peaks are achieved in different provinces and industries.（4）According to the“carbon dual control”mechanism route and the principles of fairness and efficiency allocation,the national carbon emission reduction responsibility is allocated to the petroleum and petrochemical industries in various provinces.Research has found that from the perspective of direct carbon emissions,the petroleum and petrochemical industry needs to complete 6.37%of China’s total carbon emission reduction,while from the perspective of embodied carbon emissions,it needs to complete8.14%,and the carbon emission responsibility of each region is quite different.Provinces with large carbon dioxide emissions in the petroleum and petrochemical industries have greater responsibility for carbon emission reduction.The top three provinces are Jiangsu,Shandong and Hebei.（5）Based on the above conclusions,combined with sustainable development theory,externality theory and policy regulation theory,centering on the“dual carbon”target,“carbon dual control”and relevant parties of carbon emission,this paper proposes a combination strategy for the realization of the“dual carbon”goals of the petroleum and petrochemical industry from the national,provincial and industrial perspectives.