Performance Assessment And Improvement Method For The Downstream Oil Supply Chain In China Under The Context Of Pipeline Network Reform

The pipeline network is one of the major ways of long-distance and large-quantity delivery of oil products,and it is also an important infrastructure for livelihood security that constitutes the downstream oil supply chain(DOSC).To improve the allocation efficiency of the oil and gas resources,China has been promoting the reform on the oil and gas pipeline network in recent years,by encouraging fair and open access and increasing the interconnection of pipeline network infrastructure.The reform is still in the early stage until now,and its overall impact on China’s DOSC has not been well explored yet.It is urgent to conduct relevant studies to provide theoretical guidance to deepen the reform.This dissertation investigates the performance of DOSC under the background of pipeline network reform,including the performance assessment and improvement methods.The national-level DOSC in China is taken as the research object,mainly including the primary distribution process between the refineries and depots.At frist,the fair and open access reform of the pipeline network infrastructure is studied.Based on the actual network structure and operation process of China’s DOSC,a multi-agent operation optimization model for DOSC is constructed considering the dual constraints of engineering and policy.The model minimizes the total cost of the monthly primary distribution of the oil products,which considers multi-modal and multi-stage transportation.And for the first time,the model introduces the mathematical presentation of the detailed operational process of the oil product pipelines,such as the remaining capacity of the pipeline network and the tracking of oil sources,into the supply chainlevel modeling.Based on the results,the energy-saving,cost reduction,and emission mitigation performance of China’s DOSC are quantified under the pipeline network reform of fair and open access.To further identify the potential impact of the pipeline network reform on the emergency response capability of China’s DOSC,this dissertation proposes a comprehensive assessment framework for provincial supply security of the oil products,which quantifies the chain effects of the crude oil import disruption on the downstream sector.The framework couples the operation optimization model of DOSC considering the unbalanced supply and demand,the Latin hypercube sampling-based scenario simulation of the supply disruption risk,and the evaluation index system for the downstream oil supply security.Based on this framework,a quantitative comparative analysis is conducted for the oil products supply security of each province in China before and after the fair and open access reform,identifying the weak points of the DOSC in China.To fully tap the performance improvement potential of the oil products pipelines,this dissertation proposes a bottom-up evaluation model for the performance improvement potential under multi-strategy coordination.The model considers the key operation technologies of the oil products pipeline,including pipeline scheduling,mixedoil management,pressure loss control,and leakage monitoring.The bottom-up model for the medium-and long-term oil products demand,as well as the oil price forecasting,are also employed.For any specified oil products pipeline,the model is able to quantify the performance improvement potential within its operating life and identify the prioritization of optimal energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies,which helps to provide quantitative guidance for future pipeline investments.Finally,the improvement potential of pipeline network interconnection on the performance of China’s DOSC is studied.Aiming at the optimal expansion of DOSC considering the interconnection of pipeline network facilities,a fuzzy mixed-integer linear programming model considering demand uncertainty is constructed.The model allows potential deviations and violations of objective functions and constraints from expected values,which enables reducing the risk of decision-makers effectively.Based on the proposed model,the optimal interconnection scheme of the oil products pipeline network of China in 2030 is designed,and the quantitative analysis of the improvement potential of the performance of DOSC is carried out accordingly.The results provide theoretical guidance for the medium-and long-term planning of the oil products pipeline network in China...