| Frequent inter-regional industrial transfers and carbon emissions implicit in the process of industrial transfer attract widespread attention.Is industrial transfer a major influencing in changing the carbon emission network? Does industrial transfer help or hinder energy conservation and emission reduction? This series of tissues is worthy of indepth thinking.Taking 30 provinces in China from 2007 to 2018 as the research objects,this thesis systematically explores the network structure characteristics of the provincial carbon emissions based on the perspective of industrial transfer,discusses the influencing factors of the spatial correlation network structure,and studies the network effects of the spatial correlation network structure.First,the carbon emissions of each province are measured by the energy consumption method,and the industrial transfer volume of each province is accounted for by the shift-share analysis and the input-output method,and then the current situation of industrial transfer and carbon emissions in 30 provinces in China is analyzed.The results show that the economically developed eastern coastal regions in China with intensive industrial transfer activities are mainly industrial transfer-out regions,and the carbon emissions of the eastern region are higher than that of the western region.Rather,the carbon emissions in different industrial regions show the distribution of "industrial transfer-out regions > industrial strong transfer-in regions > industrial weak transfer-in regions".Secondly,the spatial pattern and spatial correlation of provincial industrial transfer and carbon emissions were carved by ESDA method,and the impact of industrial transfer on carbon emissions was analyzed by spatial econometric model.The results found that the Moran’s I values of industrial transfer are significant,green and environmental protection are paid more concentrations;whereas carbon emissions present a significant positive spatial correlation.In terms of the overall impacting of regional carbon emissions,industrial transfer has increased carbon emissions,and the spatial spillover effect is manifested as an inhibitory effect on carbon emissions in neighboring areas.Moreover,the local spatial clustering characteristics of provincial carbon emissions are mainly "high emissions(local)-high emissions(peripheral)" and "low-high" clustering.From a regional perspective,the industrial development of the industrial transfer-out regions shows a negative effect and negative spatial spillover on carbon emissions,while the industrial activities of the industrial transfer-in regions have a positive effect and positive spatial spillover on carbon emissions.Compared with the overall positive effect of industrial transfer on provincial carbon emissions,it reveals the industrial transfer between provinces has a certain pollution refuge effect,reducing the carbon emission of the industrial transfer-out regions,but the increased environmental burden of the industrial transfer-in regions exceeds the transferred carbon emission reduction.Thirdly,a spatial correlation network structure model is constructed on the basis of improved gravity model,the network structure characteristics of provincial carbon emissions are analyzed,and then the QAP method and spatial simultaneous equation model are used to explore the impact of industrial transfer on the carbon emissions network structure.Further,the results of the spatial correlation network structure show that the network structure of provincial carbon emissions is relatively stable and typical,in which Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin,Jiangsu and Zhejiang province occupy the core position in the spatial correlation network structure,yet remote areas as Hainan and Qinghai are at the periphery of the carbon emission network structure.According to the block model,30 provinces are divided into 4 sectors,among which developed cities such as Beijing and Shanghai belong to the "net benefit" sector,while provinces such as Hainan and Qinghai play the role of "net spillover".Each sector is closely related,and the linkage effect of different provinces in the carbon emission network is becoming more and more obvious.Moreover,the analysis of the influencing factors of the carbon emission spatial network structure indicates that the geographical location and energy structure have a negative effect,decreasing the spillover effect of carbon emissions to a certain extent,while the differences in the level of industrial transfer,openness and the level of economic development have a positive influence on the network structure.The greater the difference,the stronger the spillover effect of carbon emissions in different geographical regions.Rather,higher level of industrial transfer means the higher status and influence of the province in the network structure,and it can reduce the variability of carbon emissions between provinces.Then,a spatial econometric model was constructed to study the network effects of the spatial correlation network structure of carbon emissions,and explore the influence of individual network centrality characteristics of provinces on carbon emission intensity.The study found that the network centrality characteristics of carbon emissions and the local spatial distribution of carbon emission intensity are dominated by low centralityhigh emission intensity,the point-degree centrality and intermediate centrality characteristics have a positive effect on carbon emission intensity,and the higher carbon emission intensity of the central location means that it can effectively promote the reduction of the carbon emission intensity of neighboring areas.The increase of proximity centrality has a negative effect on carbon emission intensity,and the central provinces are conducive to the reduction of carbon emission intensity,whereas will increase the carbon emission intensity of neighboring provinces.On the overall level,industrial transfer is contributed to reduce local carbon emission intensity,while it shows a positive spatial spillover effect.Further,at the regional level,industrial transfer-out will cut down the carbon emission intensity,while industrial transfer-in will add carbon emission intensity,which further indicates that the transfer of industries in China’s current economic state will alleviate some pressure on the transfer-out provinces and even the whole country to reduce emissions.Finally,some policy recommendations are proposed.Enterprises and governments should guide industrial transfer to exert positive externalities in the process of energy conservation and emission reduction,use the opportunity of industrial transfer and upgrading to create emerging environmental governance paths,strengthen economic cooperation among regions as well as the synergy and effectiveness of environmental governance,reinforce pollution control in central hub provinces,enhancing the supervision of environmental conditions in the regions where industries are undertaken. |
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