| Chemical industrial park is the inevitable product of the development of modern chemical industry.The large-scale and intensive mode leads to the concentration of inflammable and explosive chemicals.Natural disasters such as earthquake,flood and lightning are highly destructive,which are easy to cause technological disasters such as fire and explosion.Such accidents are usually defined as NaTech events.Intensive equipment layout is likely to promote the evolution and escalation of accidents.In recent years,the high-level domino effect of NaTech events often occur,exposing the shortcomings of the park in dealing with and preventing such emergencies,and the lack of systematic and effective analysis methods,making it difficult to achieve chain-cutting disaster mitigation of accidents.It is of great theoretical significance and engineering application value for improving the whole-process accident pre-control ability of the park to carry out the research on escalation probability prediction,and strengthen the accident pre-control system and key technical methods for high-level domino effect of NaTech events.At present,the research on NaTech events has attracted more and more attention in the field of chemical process safety at home and abroad,but the subsequent domino effect accidents are rarely regarded as a complete disaster system,and the comprehensive consideration of high-level escalation scenarios with multiple escalation factors such as thermal radiation,overpressure and debris is lacking.Most of the existing studies are based on conventional static methods,and less on dynamic analysis of the spatial-temporal evolution law of accidents.Therefore,this paper takes the high-level domino effect of NaTech events in chemical industrial park as the research object,focuses on the problem of complex evolution with multiple escalation factors coexisting,and aims at achieving regional accident prevention and control,to carry out the following researches:(i)Research on the evolution and escalation mechanism of high-level domino effect of NaTech event.Through the method of disaster chain analysis,the compound disaster system of "evolution of natural disaster-escalation of technological disaster" is studied to determine the key elements and evolution process of high-level domino effect escalation of NaTech event,and analyze the typical characteristics of accidents.The complexity of high-level domino effect of NaTech events is analyzed,and the escalation probability model with different emergency time parameters is studied to realize the probability calculation of complex scenario.The mathematical representation models that can characterize the spatio-temporal evolution mechanism of domino effect is constructed.The three-level hierarchical framework for quantitative analysis of high-level domino effect is established to provide support and guidance for subsequent researches.(ii)Research on the escalation probability prediction method for spatial evolution of high-level domino effect of NaTech event.Based on the general escalation model of accident spatial evolution,the high-level domino effect escalation probability prediction process for NaTech event in chemical park is studied,and the matrix model for quantitative analysis is established.Through the damage probability model of typical natural disasters,the scenario probability of damage state combination is calculated.The primary accident scenarios and probabilities are identified and calculated by using the event tree method,and the mathematical matrices representing the intensities of different escalation vectors are established.The escalation probability prediction algorithm based on Monte Carlo simulation is studied,which can predict the escalation probability of any domino level in any primary scenario,overcoming the limitations of previous studies that did not systematically consider the coexistence of multi escalation vectors and insufficient analysis of high-level scenarios.The validity and rationality of the method are analyzed and verified by comparing with the calculation results of the centrality of graph theory.(iii)Research on the dynamic escalation probability prediction method for spatio-temporal evolution of high-level domino effect of NaTech event.Based on the causal inference of accident escalation,the dynamic transfer law of accidental escalation elements is analyzed,and the unit dynamic escalation model of domino effect is constructed,and the driving mechanism of unit state evolution are determined.Based on the research of spatial escalation mechanism,considering the superposition effect in time dimension,the dynamic escalation probability prediction process for high-level domino effect is studied,and the multi-dimensional time series matrix model for quantitative analysis is established.The spatio-temporal dynamic escalation probability prediction algorithm is studied to realize the dynamic escalation probability prediction and dynamic accident situation judgment in complex scenarios through random simulation analysis of parameter uncertainty.The validity and rationality of the method are analyzed and verified by comparing with the calculation results of Dynamic Bayesian network.(iv)Research on identification method of key vulnerability target for pre-control of high-level domino effect of NaTech event.Based on the accident prevention theory,the conceptual model framework of vulnerability for NaTech event domino effect is established,then the components of vulnerability for hazard-affected body in chemical industrial park are analyzed,and the connotation of vulnerability is revealed.The representational relationship between vulnerability and escalation of high-level domino effect is studied,and the influencing factors of dynamic vulnerability are clarified.Based on the framework of "explosion-sensitivity-resilience",the quantitative assessment process of high-level domino effect vulnerability is studied.The matrix function models for quantitative assessment of exposure,sensitivity and resilience under natural and technological disasters are established respectively,focusing on identifying key prevention and control targets for potential escalation accidents in the park,and evaluating the dynamic vulnerability of complex scenarios based on the dynamic response of escalation vectors.It solves the problem from probability prediction rusults to seeking the key targets of accident pre-control.(v)Research on the pre-control system and safety barrier technology for high-level domino effect of NaTech event.Based on the view of park whole life cycle,the pre-control system for high-level domino effect is studied from five aspects: site selection & layout,process design,production & storage,accident emergency and recovery,and the core and key technical points of each aspect are identified.Aiming at the chain-cutting disaster mitigation,the typical safety barriers are classified systematically,and the layout patterns of all kinds of barriers are determined.The function realization principle of the barrier is analyzed,and the calculation formula of high-level domino effect escalation probability under the barrier is deduced.The safety barrier configuration strategy for high-level domino effect of NaTech event is studied,which can provide a basis for accident pre-control at different nodes,and is of great significance for safety management based on risk and barrier optimization.(vi)Research on the application of escalation probability prediction and pre-control for high-level domino effect of NaTech event in chemical industrial park.Taking a chemical industrial park in Guangdong as the application object,aiming at the three typical disasters of earthquake,flood and lightning,the application is carried out by using the proposed methods of escalation probability prediction and accident pre-control,including the following contents: escalation probability prediction for the spatial evolution of high-level domino effec induced by three typical natural disasters;judgment of the dynamic escalation situation for the spatio-temporal evolution of specific scenario;identification of high vulnerability targets;the analysis of the specific pre-control strategies and corresponding quantitative effect,so as to reflect the engineering value of the methods for high-level domino effect of NaTech event in chemical industrial park. |
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