| Ecosystem services are an important guarantee for human production and development,and have become a hot topic in landscape planning and ecological restoration research.How to regulate the landscape pattern and coordinate the interrelationships between various ecosystem services to improve human well-being is currently a difficult issue in rural landscape planning and ecosystem management.As a key area carrying human production and sustainable development,rural areas can provide various ecological services such as food supply and water conservation.Since the beginning of the 21st century,the strategy of rural revitalization has been comprehensively promoted in China,and a series of major projects have been implemented,such as land remediation and ecological restoration.While promoting rural socio-economic development and improving the human settlements environment,it has also caused many problems such as dramatic changes in land use patterns,deterioration of the ecological environment,and decline in ecological service functions.Based on this,exploring the temporal and spatial evolution of ecosystem services and conducting multi scenario simulations for the future have important theoretical and practical significance for optimizing rural land use patterns,making sustainable rural development decisions,maximizing ecosystem services,and improving human well-being in the future.This article takes the rural area of southern Henan,one of the main grain producing areas in China,as the research target area.Based on multi-period satellite remote sensing image data,field survey data,historical literature data,and geographic detector models,this paper quantitatively analyzes the characteristics and key driving forces of landscape pattern evolution;Using the In VEST evaluation model and the geographic detector model,this paper explores ecosystem services and their trade-offs/synergies in rural areas of southern Henan,revealing key drivers that affect the supply capacity and spatiotemporal differentiation of ecosystem services;Using the coupling hierarchical framework of Geo SOS-FLUS and In VEST models,the land use landscape patterns in rural areas of southern Henan were simulated and predicted under three different development scenarios in the future.The trade-offs/synergies among six key ecosystem services under different scenarios were evaluated,and strategies for maximizing ecosystem services and managing their sustainability were proposed.The main research results of this article are as follows:(1)This paper systematically discusses the main characteristics and driving forces of landscape pattern evolution in rural areas of southern Henan in the past 40 years.From 1980 to2020,the land use/cover in rural areas of southern Henan Province changed dramatically,and its evolution characteristics were mainly manifested in three types:stable,decreasing,and increasing.Cultivated land and grassland belong to the decreasing type;Incremental type mainly includes forest land,construction land,water area and other landscape types;The unutilized land belongs to a stable type,with little change in the past 40 years.The conversion of land use types is mainly manifested in the conversion between construction land,cultivated land,water area,and forest land,and is mainly concentrated in the northern,central,and southern regions of the study area.The spatial conversion is transferred from mountainous areas to plain areas;The center of gravity migration of forest land is the most obvious,followed by cultivated land and water areas;The fragmentation of the overall landscape pattern in the study area showed an increasing trend,while landscape uniformity and connectivity showed a downward trend,while irregular patches showed an increasing trend;Elevation,slope,annual precipitation,annual temperature,population density,and night light index are key driving factors for the evolution of landscape pattern.(2)The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of ecosystem services in rural areas of southern Henan during the past 30 years were analyzed comprehensively.Water production and water quality purification services show a trend of"first increasing,then decreasing,and then increasing";The total amount of soil conservation,carbon storage,and habitat quality all showed a trend of"increasing first and then decreasing";The supply of services continues to increase.The spatial distribution of ecosystem services is characterized by significant heterogeneity,and the distribution of water production services is characterized by"low in mountain areas,high in plains";Soil conservation,water purification,carbon storage,and habitat quality services are characterized by a"high in mountain area,low in plain"distribution;The overall distribution of food supply services is relatively uniform.Rural areas in Xinyang have the highest water production depth,water production,and average carbon storage per unit area;The soil conservation,total nitrogen output,and average habitat quality per unit area in the rural area of Nanyang are the largest.In the past 30 years,the comprehensive ecosystem service index in Xinyang region has experienced the largest increase of 4.720%,while the comprehensive ecosystem service index in Nanyang region has experienced the largest decrease of 0.306%;The spatial distribution of integrated ecosystem services is characterized by"high in mountains and low in plains".(3)Comprehensively explained the distribution characteristics of cold and hot spots of ecosystem services in rural areas of southern Henan,and clarified the trade-off/synergy relationship between various ecosystem services.On a regional scale,there is a trade-off or synergy between ecosystem services such as water production,carbon storage,soil conservation,water purification,habitat quality,and food supply,and the trend of annual changes in the trade-off or synergy between the two is basically similar.There is a strong synergistic relationship among habitat quality,carbon storage,and soil conservation,while there is a strong trade-off relationship among habitat quality,nitrogen output,and water yield.The distribution areas of cold spots served by water production are mostly located in the mountainous areas of southern Henan,while the hot spots are mainly distributed in the plain areas with lower elevations;The hot spots for soil conservation services are mainly distributed in the north of Nanyang City,the west of Zhumadian,and the southern edge of Xinyang City;Hot spots for water purification services are mainly distributed in economically developed regions,while cold spots are mainly distributed in regions with high vegetation coverage and light pollution;The distribution characteristics of carbon storage services and habitat quality cold spots and hot spots in the past 30 years are basically similar,and there is no significant change.The hot spots are mostly located in forest and grassland areas;There are no obvious cold spots for food supply services,and the hot spots are mostly farmland and grassland.(4)Accurately identify the key drivers of ecosystem services and their response relationships in rural areas of southern Henan.Annual rainfall,annual temperature,vegetation coverage,elevation,and slope factors have a positive impact on ecosystem services,while cultivated land area and its proportion have a negative impact.GDP has a positive impact on nitrogen output services and food supply services,and population density factors have a negative impact on habitat quality.There is significant spatial heterogeneity in the regression coefficients between various driving factors and ecological services,with the R~2values of carbon storage and habitat quality services gradually increasing outward from the central region of the study area;The maximum value of soil conservation service R~2is distributed in the southeast of the study area,followed by the northwest,and the minimum value is distributed in the central region;The R~2values of nitrogen output,water production,and food supply services gradually decreased from the northwest to the southeast of the study area.(5)Complete simulation and prediction of the supply capacity and trade-off characteristics of ecosystem services under different scenarios in the future.There are significant differences in the comprehensive ecosystem service index under three different scenarios.Under the cultivated land protection scenario,the comprehensive ecosystem service index is the highest,while under the natural growth scenario,the comprehensive ecosystem service index is the lowest;Under the three scenarios,there is a trade-off between carbon storage and nitrogen output,water yield,and food supply,nitrogen output and soil conservation,habitat quality,and water yield and soil conservation,habitat quality;The relationships between carbon storage and soil conservation,habitat quality,nitrogen output and water yield,and soil conservation and habitat quality are all synergistic;The trade-offs between the six ecosystem services are significantly different,with strong trade-offs between water production and carbon storage,habitat quality,and nitrogen output.There is a strong synergy between habitat quality and carbon storage,carbon storage,and water production and nitrogen output.To sum up,clarifying the dynamics of landscape patterns and land use transfer paths,maximizing the coordination of the relationship between various ecosystem services,improving the supply capacity of ecosystem services,and constructing a sustainable ecosystem management system are the best ways to achieve a win-win situation for socio-economic development and ecological environmental protection in rural areas in southern Henan.The results of this study will provide a reference basis for formulating differentiated strategies for ecological environment protection and ecosystem management in the study area. |
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