| Ecosystem services are an important bridge that couples the ecological environment and human well-being,and play an important role in the rational use and allocation of natural resources.The ecosystem can provide multiple ecosystem services,and there are complex relationships between different services,which are mainly manifested in the trade-off relationship between trade-offs and mutual growth.Due to the ever-increasing population of the world and the increasing material needs of people,the increase in the supply of a certain ecosystem often results in a decrease in the supply of other types of ecosystem services in the region,which in turn leads to the degradation of the entire ecosystem.The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the roof of the world and the Asian water tower.Its special geographical location and abundant natural resources play an important role as an ecological barrier for China and its surrounding areas.Because of the impact of global climate change,the region’s ecosystem has become more fragile and environmental problems have become more serious.Therefore,it is urgent to clarify the trade-offs and synergy between ecosystem services and maintain the sustainable supply of ecosystem services in order to more effectively promote the scientific management of regional ecosystems and the coordinated development of the natural-economic-society complex system.Based on remote sensing,DEM,NDVI,and land use data,this paper used In VEST,CASA and value equivalent methods to calculate the value of water production services,carbon sequestration services and climate regulation services in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 2000to 2015.Based on the calculated data,analyze the time change and spatial distribution of the value of the three services.After that,using software such as SPSS,MATLAB and Arc GIS,methods such as correlation analysis,spatial representation,and hotspot analysis were used to clarify the temporal and spatial dynamic characteristics of ecosystem service trade-offs and synergy.Finally,use the FLUS model to simulate and predict the changes in land use under different scenarios(natural development,ecological protection and urban construction)on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in 2035,and explore the ecological spatial distribution,the value of ecosystem services and the trade-off situation in the region under the three scenarios.Multi-directions and multi-angles provide theoretical references for the future ecosystem management and territorial and spatial planning of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)From 2000 to 2015,the water production service in the study area decreased by 248.41yuan/hm2.The annual average value of carbon sequestration services and climate regulation services showed an upward trend,increasing by 26.38 yuan/hm~2 and respectively 330.53yuan/hm~2.During the 16 years,the three services showed a spatial distribution pattern of“high in southeast and low in northwest”.The change in water production services is a significant decrease in the central part of the study area,and a significant increase in northwestern Xinjiang,northern Qinghai,and southeastern Tibet.The changes in carbon sequestration services are manifested as an increase in Qinghai,Gansu,northern Sichuan and southeastern Tibet,and a significant decrease in Xinjiang and central Tibet.The change in climate regulation services is manifested as an increase in most areas of the study area,and the decreasing areas are mainly located in Xinjiang and Qinghai.(2)In the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region from 2000 to 2015,the grassland area accounted for more than 58%,and the unused land area accounted for more than 25%,which are the two most widely distributed land use types in the study area.The study area has a total of 8249 km~2of land use changes.The input area of water bodies is up to 3546 km~2,and the output area of grassland is up to 3298 km~2.In addition,the conversion between grassland and unused land in the study area is also frequent.(3)From 2000 to 2015 in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,the correlation coefficient between water production and carbon sequestration was 0.098,the correlation coefficient between water production and climate regulation was 0.063,and the correlation coefficient between carbon sequestration and climate regulation was 0.46.In terms of time changes,the synergy between water production and carbon sequestration was weak before 2007,and both synergy and trade-off relations appeared,and after 2007,the synergy gradually increased.The synergy and trade-off relationship between water production and climate regulation alternately appeared before2006,and after 2006,the synergy relationship and gradually strengthened.Carbon sequestration and climate regulation have been in an obvious synergistic relationship for many years.(4)The trade-off and synergy between the various services in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are spatially different.Water production and carbon sequestration are trade-offs in the northwest and southeast of the study area,and the southwest and northeast are synergistic.Water production and climate regulation present a spatial pattern of"synergy-trade-off-synergy"from west to east in the study area.The carbon sequestration and climate regulation services show a spatial distribution from the southwest to the east of the study area,from a gradual transition from trade-offs to synergy.(5)The area of land use types under different scenarios is different.Forest land and grassland have the largest areas in the 2035 protection scenario,which are 270197 km~2and1502930 km~2,respectively.Cultivated land,urban land,and unused land have the largest areas in the 2035 urban construction scenario,at 18280 km~2,4712 km~2,and 668358 km~2,respectively.The water area has the largest area in the 2035 natural development scenario at 117589 km~2.Compared with the land use status in 2015,the area of arable land,grassland and unused land under each scenario has decreased,and the area of water and urban land has increased.Only in the ecological protection scenario,the area of forest land has increased.(6)In different scenarios in 2035,the total value of both carbon sequestration and climate regulation services is the highest in the ecological protection scenario,and the total value of water production services is the highest in the natural development scenario.Compared with2015,the comprehensive benefits of ecosystem services in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under the three scenarios have improved.Among them,the comprehensive benefits under the ecological protection scenario are the best,which is more conducive to the coordinated and sustainable development of ecosystem services in the study area. |
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