Embodied Air Pollutant Transfer In The International Trade Of Light Industry Sector

The light industry sector(LIS)is an industrial sector that produces consumer materials.It not only provides major daily necessities for whole society,but also provides critical basic raw materials for heavy industry sector.The LIS plays a critical role in promoting economic development,satisfying public consumption,expanding employment and stabilizing foreign trade.However,the LIS’s attributes,such as severe pollution emissions,and the sizeable pulling effect on pollution emissions from other sectors,are particularly significant.With the acceleration of consumer goods upgrading and trade globalization,the undesired outputs driven by the production of the LIS products are transferred across regions along the global industrial chain.This leads to severe environmental problems,such as the transfer of the air pollutant embodied in the international trade(TPEIT)and "carbon leakage".It not only brings an additional environmental burden to less developed regions,but also easily leads to trade disputes and environmental governance controversy,which creates great obstacles to effectively dealing with the global environmental governance and other issues.Furthmore,under the background of the severe global air pollution and acute international environmental controversy,China shoulders the strategic tasks of achieving a fundamental improvement in environmental quality and the high-quality development of the LIS.It also faces challenges such as the synergy of energy conservation,pollution and carbon reduction,and green transformation of socioeconomic development.However,the LIS TPEIT problem has not received due concern so far,and there is no research attempt to reveal the TPEIT problems of all or most of the light industries.To fill this gap,this study focuses on the TPEIT issues in 16 major light industries in 43 economies during 2000～2014.Thus,a research framework and quantitative models were first developed based on theories and methods including input-output,complex network,and decomposition analysis.Then the im-and export characteristics and changing trends of China’s LIS TPEIT were analyzed from the perspectives of the production-end,consumption-end,the global industrial chains,and complex networks.Additionally,the pattern,evolution characteristics of the global TPEIT network for the LIS,and their driving factors were revealed.The critical economies and industries that lead to the LIS TPEIT were clarified.Policy recommendations for effectively dealing with global pollution of the LIS and comprehensively promoting the high-quality development strategy of China’s LIS were put forward.The main contents and conclusions are as follows:First,the production-and consumption-end accounting models for the global LIS TPEIT were developed to analyze the im-and ex-port characteristics and evolution trend of China’s LIS TPEIT from the perspective of geospatial correlation and industrial correlation.Additionally,the critical economies and industries that led to it were revealed based on these models.Results showed that the total im-and ex-port TPEIT volume of China’s LIS final product was relatively large,and surged with fluctuation.Still its growth rate slowed down significantly,and the TPEIT deficit was huge.During the study period,the total import volume of trade-embodied NOX and SOX was 11.91 and 28.78 times of its total export volume,respectively,and their deficit was as high as 38.90 and 99.00 Mt,respectively.For distribution,a very small number of high-income economies,such as the United States and Japan,as well as a small number of industries such as the agricultural and sideline food processing industry(I1),the manufacture of glass,glass products and other non-metallic mineral products(I8),the manufacture of basic precious metals and other non-ferrous metals(I9),and the manufacture of general equipment and special equipment for the LIS(I15)dominated the total volume,which showed a high regional concentration and industry concentration of the distribution,as well as an obvious long-tail characteristics.Among them,the total contributions of the United States and Japan to China’s total annual tradeembodied NOX(and SOX)imports was always between 30.29 and 40.30%(and between 44.61 and 60.66%);the total contributions of I8 and I15 were always between 53.04 and 69.78%(and between 74.27 and 82.65%).In contrast,the total contribution of Korea,Taiwan(China),Japan,and the United States to China’s annual exports of the trade-embodied NOX(and SOX)was always between 65.91 and 74.71%(and between 69.42 and 79.76%);the total contributions of I1,I9,and I15 were always between 67.59 and 76.83%(and between 83.70 and 87.76%).Therefore,the TPEIT issue of China’s LIS should receive more attention.It is necessary to appropriately adjust the export trade structure of the abovementioned critical economies and the inustrial structure of the industries.However,because it is difficult to replace the position of these economies and industries due to their status in China’s trading partners or industrial chain;It is also challenging to make a significant breakthrough in the technologies(e.g.,clean production)of these industries in the short term,the governance of China’s TPEIT still faces great challenges.Therefore,it is urgent to deepen the domestic and foreign dual-cycle strategy,enhance the innovation of LIS technology,and improve the structure and efficiency of energy use,so as to enhance China’s position in the global industrial chain.Second,the analytical framework model for the global LIS TPEIT network was constructed to reveal its pattern and evolution characteristics,as well as the network characteristics,roles,and status of the economies from the perspective of complex network and global industrial chain.Research showed that the structure of the network was relatively stable with a high density.The small world property and the centralization trend of the network were always significant.Among them,about 40%of the "large-sized" economies(e.g.,China and the U.S.)were always their core nodes,which showed stable and absolute importance in the im-and export of the TPEIT,and mainly im-or ex-ported TPEIT through industries,such as I1 and I8.Whereas,the vast majority of the critical paths flowed from high-income economies to low-and middle-income ones.The total TPEIT amount of some"small and medium-sized" periphery nodes(e.g.,Bulgaria)was small,while showed a noticeable growth rate.As the most typical representatives of low-and middle-income,and high-income economies,China and the United States played the most active network roles,but their positions and roles were polarized significantly.Because China had always been at the end of the vast majority of the critical paths,and had the largest TPEIT deficit in the world.36.5%(and 52.0%)of the global total trade-embodied NOX(and SOX)transfered in the network were caused by its extraterritorial consumption,while the resulting environmental costs were borne by China.In contrast,the United States were always the starting point of these critical paths,and its exported-TPEIT volume and surplus ranked first in the world.24.5%(and 28.3%)of total global trade-embodied NOX(and SOX)transferred in the network were attributed to its domestic consumption.Thus,a slight decrease in the TPEIT in these critical economies and industries may be quickly transmitted to the other nodes and trigger a significant oscillation in the network structure.Thus,these economies should exert targeted governance on their key industries.However,because it is difficult to replace the strong growth potential of the TPEIT in some "small and medium-sized" peripheral economies,the demographic dividends of low-and middle-income economies(e.g.,China and India),and the demand of high-income economies(e.g.,the U.S.and the United Kingdom),all the economies should adjust their LIS’s trade and industry structures based on the lastest TPEIT dynamics,strengthen the pollution control in the key industries,and participate in the collaborative governance of the global LIS pollution.High-income economies with large TPEIT surpluses(e.g.,U.S.and Japan)should assume the responsibility,pay corresponding costs for the ecological functions obtained by outsourcing pollution-intensive production activities,and guide public for green consumption and strengthen foreign aid assistance.In contrast,low-and middle-income economies with large TPEIT deficits(e.g.,China and India)should formulate environmental governance goals that meet their own development requirements according to their development stage and the actual conditions of their LIS.They should also strengthen the technological innovation of key industries and the adjustment of industrial and trade structures.Third,a decomposition analysis model of the driving factors for the global LIS TPEIT was constructed for revealing their reasons.Research showed that the contribution of the intermediate products to the LIS TPEIT varied greatly among economies(the greaest difference was 2.92 for NOX,and 7.94 times for SOX,respectively).Still it contributed more than 40%to the global total TPEIT.This indicates that the trade of intermediate products,which reflects the degree of industrial chain integration,was increasingly active,and had triggered profound changes in the global LIS’s trade pattern and its TPEIT growth pattern.Whereas the change in the LIS TPEIT was the comprehensive result of the changes in the factors,such as emission intensity and production dependence.From the global perspective,although the changing effects of emission intensity and production dependence had weakened,it had always been the decisive factors in suppressing and promoting the increase of the TPEIT,respectively;The shrinking of trade and consumption scales restrained its increase,but the impact was small.The increase in the degree of intra-regional dependence and the unreasonable adjustment of trade structure was the biggest driver for the rise of the final product TPEIT;and the growth of inter-regional dependence was the decisive driver for the rise of intermediate products TPEIT,but the influence of the above factors was primarily offset by the reduction effect of emission intensity.For China’s LIS TPEIT,changes in the emission intensity,trade structure,and inter-regional dependence had always been the key drivers.Among them,the unreasonable changes in the latter two factors had always promoted its increase,while the impact was significantly reduced.The decrease of the emission intensity suppressed the increase,but its impact was unstable.Furthermore,the reasonable changes in consumption scale,consumption structure,and trade scale restrained its increase,but their impact was 1 to 2 orders of magnitude smaller than that of emission intensity.Emission intensity had the greatest impact on the TPEIT of the critical economies(e.g.,the U.S.,the United Kingdom,and Russia)and key industries(e.g.,I1,I8,and I15);It even determined the overall direction and intensity of all their drivers,and was followed by the trade structure,trade scales,and the degree of production dependence(including intra-and inter-regional),while the other factors had less impact.Therefore,all the economies should strive to improve the green design,manufacturing,and production level of their products while they focus on the trade of final products,so as to comprehensively promote the green process of the LIS chain and reduce the impact of intermediate products.Furthermore,it should strengthen the technological innovation of clean production,reduce the input demand for foreign products,and advocate green consumption in order to minimize the impact of emission intensity and production dependence.In the development of the LIS technologies,China,the United States,and other economies should strengthen the cooperation for improving the efficiency of energy use and reducing the emission intensity of industries such as I1,I8,and I15.China,India,and other low-and middle-income economies should also enhance the competitiveness of their final domestic products and the development capacity of intermediate products.Moreover,they should further promote the domestic and foreign dual-cycle strategy while continuing to expand foreign trade so as to optimize their LIS trade,industrial,and consumption structures.This research provides theoretical support and empirical data for effectively dealing with the LIS TPEIT problem,provides decision-making reference for comprehensively promoting the high-quality development strategy of China’s LIS and achieving a fundamental improvement in the air quality.It also provides a basis for comprehensively promoting the green transformation of economic and social development.Thus,it is conducive to further adjust the trade and industrial structures of the global LIS.It is also conducive to the the reshaping of the position of the LIS in the global industrial and supply chains.