A Study On The Factors Influencing The Embodied Carbon In China International Trade Of Agricultural Products

"Embodied carbon emissions" is an indicator of the environmental impact of trade liberalization and describes all carbon dioxide gases emitted directly and indirectly during the production of products.Since China’s accession to the WTO,the scale of import and export trade has continued to expand,and the scale of embodied carbon emissions in international trade in agricultural products has also increased year by year.With the process of agricultural modernization mainly characterized by mechanization and chemistry,the scale of emissions is expected to continue to expand,so the embodied carbon emissions behind China’s international trade in agricultural products will have an important impact on China’s achievement of the "dual carbon" goal.This paper focuses on the concept of "embodied carbon emissions",which is a study on the scale,change trend and driving factors of embodied carbon emissions in the international trade of agricultural products in China.This paper first establishes a multi-regional input-output model to estimate the embodied carbon emissions of China’s agricultural import and export trade from 2001 to 2021,and sorts out the high-carbon emission sectors in China’s agricultural import and export trade in the past 20 years.Secondly,the asymmetric EKC model was used to study the nonlinear relationship between the level of economic development and the embodied carbon of agricultural import and export trade,and on this basis,the time range of the peaking of embodied carbon emissions in China’s agricultural import and export trade was estimated.Then,the scale of import and export trade,energy utilization efficiency,and carbon intensity of agricultural trade were used as mechanism variables to establish a mechanism analysis model,and the specific role path of economic development affecting the change of carbon emissions implied in trade was analyzed in depth.Finally,based on the empirical results,relevant policy suggestions for the "dual carbon" work in the field of international trade of agricultural products in China are put forward.The research shows that:(1)The implied carbon emission scale of China’s agricultural product import and export trade shows a significant upward trend with the expansion of trade scale,while the implied carbon emission coefficient of import and export trade shows a downward trend,but the implied carbon emission coefficient of export trade is significantly higher than the implied carbon emission coefficient of import trade.(2)The implied carbon emissions from agricultural products export trade in various provinces in China have significant convergence,and through significant nonlinear testing,it has been proved that the implied carbon in export presents a significant "inverted U" shaped change trend with the growth of per capita GDP.It is expected that the inflection point will occur around 2036,while the implied carbon in import trade does not have significant convergence,so it is impossible to determine whether there is a non-linear change trend;(3)The three mechanism variables of trade scale,implied carbon coefficient,and carbon intensity have all passed the mechanism test,proving that the increase in energy consumption intensity caused by the expansion of trade scale is the main reason for promoting the growth of implied carbon emissions in agricultural product export trade;The improvement of energy utilization efficiency and the reduction of implied carbon emission coefficient in the context of the application of cleaner production technologies are the most important factors to inhibit the growth of implied carbon emissions in agricultural product export trade;The decline in the proportion of high carbon emitting agricultural products in the import and export structure under policy regulations is also an important reason for the reduction in the scale of implied carbon emissions in China’s international trade in agricultural products.The policy recommendations put forward in this paper are as follows:(1)optimize the import and export structure of agricultural products and reduce the import and export of high-carbon products;(2)Promote agricultural technological innovation and vigorously develop low-carbon agricultural technologies;(3)Optimize the energy structure,accelerating the use of clean energy;(4)Strengthen environmental regulation and reduce carbon emissions from agricultural production.