| Industrialization and urbanization are the basic trends of global economic and social development,and their rapid advancement has effectively improved human living standards and human well-being;however,there have also been problems such as global warming caused by excessive greenhouse gas emissions.The redistribution of global precipitation,the melting of glaciers and permafrost,the rise of sea levels,and the slowing of air flow,not only endanger the balance of natural ecosystems,but also affect human health and even threaten human survival.At present,as one of the world’s largest energy consumers and the world’s largest carbon emitter,China attaches great importance to addressing climate change and actively seeks a low-carbon economy.At the 75th UN General Assembly commitment,President Xi has made a statement to the international community that China strives to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.On the other hand,territorial space not only carries various natural resources such as mountains,rivers,forests,fields,lakes and grasses as carbon sink entities,but also carries related social and economic activities as carbon sources;rapid urbanization and industrialization not only intensify the production of fossil fuel combustion It also erodes carbon sink land,resulting in the imbalance of carbon source/sink in the national land space.Therefore,how to reduce the carbon emission in the territorial spatial,improve the level of carbon sink in the land space,and promote low-carbon development is one of the hot spots in the current carbon emission reduction research.Therefore,this thesis explores the spatial-temporal evolution of carbon emissions in the territorial spatial types,analyzes the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the territorial spatial types,and simulates the evolution trend of carbon emissions in the territorial spatial types under different scenarios in the future.Emissions have important theoretical value and can also provide decision-making reference for low-carbon utilization of land space.Guided by sustainable development theory,low-carbon economy theory,system science theory,and human-land relationship theory,and taking Wuhan City as the research object,this thesis constructs the spatial carbon emissions from 9 parts,including terrestrial ecosystem carbon absorption and energy consumption carbon emissions.The accounting system calculates the carbon emissions of Wuhan’s territorial space from 2000 to 2018.Based on the establishment of the corresponding relationship between the types of different territorial spatial types and carbon emission accounts,the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of Wuhan’s territorial and spatial carbon emissions are studied;This thesis analyzes the carbon emission effect of Wuhan City in terms of intensity and the carbon transfer flux caused by the change of land space type,and uses the LMDI decomposition method to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emission in the land space.The simulation model of the space carbon emission system simulates the feasible paths to achieve carbon emission reduction under different policy backgrounds;then,through a comprehensive analysis of the economic,ecological and social benefits of the feasible paths,the optimal carbon emission reduction path is selected;Pathways and strategies for carbon emission reduction in Wuhan’s territorial space.The research conclusions mainly include the following aspects:(1)According to the temporal changes of carbon emissions in different territorial spatial types,the carbon emissions in agricultural production space showed a downward trend from 2000 to 2018,while the carbon emissions in urban production space,urban living space,rural living space,water ecological space and woodland ecological space showed a downward trend.From 2000 to 2018,it showed an upward trend,and carbon emissions in urban production space were the most important source of carbon emissions in national land space.From 2000 to 2018,the ecological space carbon sink of forest land showed a downward trend,and the overall change of carbon sink of grassland ecological space was not large;the carbon sink of water ecological space showed a trend of first increase and then decrease,the forest ecological space carbon sink is dominant.From the perspective of the migration trend of carbon sources in different types of land space,agricultural production space,urban production space and woodland ecological space tend to migrate to the northeast,water ecological space and rural living space tend to migrate to the southwest,and urban living space to the southeast Directional migration trend.From the perspective of the migration trend of carbon sinks in different land space types,the ecological space of woodland and grassland showed a trend of migration to the northeast,and the ecological space of water showed a trend of migration to the southwest.From the perspective of the spatial and temporal pattern of carbon emissions in the land space,the area of high carbon emission areas showed a shrinking trend from 2000 to 2018,and the high carbon emission patches shifted from the central urban area to the east of the central urban area;the carbon sink patches showed a decreasing trend from 2000 to 2018,The high carbon sink patches in the Dongxihu area decreased significantly,and the high carbon sink patches were mainly concentrated in the northeast of Huangpi District and the south of Caidian District.(2)From the perspective of carbon emission intensity of land space types,the carbon emission intensity of urban production space is much higher than that of urban living space,rural living space and agricultural production space.The carbon uptake intensity of grassland remained unchanged,the carbon uptake intensity of woodland decreased slightly,and the carbon emission intensity of water area increased significantly.From the perspective of carbon transfer caused by the transformation of land space types,the harmful carbon transfer from 2000 to 2018 was mainly due to the conversion of agricultural production space to urban production space,and the beneficial carbon transfer was mainly due to the conversion of urban production space to urban living space.From the perspective of the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the territorial space,the economic level,the structure of the territorial space,and the size of the population have all played a role in promoting the growth of the carbon emission in the territorial space of Wuhan.The territorial space utilization efficiency and the land-average carbon emission intensity have inhibited the growth of Wuhan’s territorial space carbon emissions,and the inhibition effect of the territorial space utilization efficiency is more significant.(3)According to the simulation results of Wuhan’s territorial space carbon emission system,Wuhan’s territorial space carbon emissions showed an upward trend from 2019 to 2035,increasing from 4449.76×10~4 tons in 2019 to 7185.54×10~4 tons in2035,an increase of 61.45%.From the perspective of the type of land space,the carbon emissions of urban production space,urban living space,rural living space,water ecological space and forest ecological space will all increase during the forecast period.Among them,the carbon emission of urban living space has the fastest growth rate.,while carbon emissions from agricultural production space will show a downward trend over the forecast period.From 2019 to 2035,Wuhan’s territorial space carbon sink showed a downward trend,from 8.8×10~4 tons in 2019 to 8.48×10~4 tons tons in 2035,a decrease of 3.62%.In terms of spatial types,the carbon sinks of woodland ecological space and grassland ecological space showed a downward trend,while the carbon sinks of water ecological space continued to increase.From 2019 to 2035,the net carbon emissions of Wuhan’s territorial spatial will show an upward trend,increasing from44.41 million tons in 2019 to 71.77 million tons in 2035,an increase of 61.61%.Forestry ecological space and grassland ecological space show carbon absorption during the forecast period,while urban production space,urban living space and rural living space carry most of the anthropocentric carbon emissions.Overall,the carbon absorption of Wuhan’s territorial space has little impact on the total carbon emissions of the territorial space.(4)Under the scenarios of industrial structure optimization,technological progress,territorial spatial structure optimization,and population regulation,the carbon emissions in Wuhan’s territorial space have all been reduced.The carbon reduction potential is minimal.The 11 comprehensive control scenarios are all helpful to reduce the carbon emissions of Wuhan City’s land space.The carbon emission reduction potential under the effective combination of comprehensive control scenarios is much higher than that of single-scenario control,indicating that coordinated control of multiple policies is more conducive to achieving low carbon emissions.Carbon development,among which,the industrial structure adjustment-scientific and technological innovation investment adjustment-land space structure adjustment-population adjustment scenario can maximize the carbon emission reduction effect while meeting Wuhan’s economic development expectations,improving Wuhan’s social welfare level and living life comfort.Therefore,this thesis chooses the adjustment of industrial structure-adjustment of investment in scientific and technological innovation-adjustment of territorial spatial structure-adjustment of population as the optimal carbon emission reduction path in Wuhan.The countermeasures and suggestions for carbon emission reduction in Wuhan’s territorial space are put forward from four aspects:industrial structure optimization,technological innovation adjustment,territorial spatial structure optimization and population scale regulation. |
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