| Background and objectives:Climate change is widely acknowledged as a serious threat to global development,and Bangladesh is no exception;without a doubt,global warming has placed Bangladesh among the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change with increasing temperatures and sea-level rise.The motivation behind this paper is to examine the effects of climate change on Bangladesh’s economy and agriculture by a computable general equilibrium(CGE)modeling framework.Research methodology:This study examines the potential economic and social consequences of worsening weather conditions on Bangladesh’s economic growth and food security.To assess the possible economic implications of climate change scenarios through high-resolution climate forecasts throughout a Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)by 2030 and 2050,this study links a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium(CGE)model with a crop model.Other indicators like livestock model and sea-level rise have also been taken into consideration in this study.Hence,the purpose of this paper is to examine how climate change impacts agriculture and economy in Bangladesh in the case of climate change scenarios.Findings from the result:The result of the climate model study finds that overall temperatures tend to increase by 1~0C and 2~0C in the year 2030 and 2050.Precipitation patterns are also projected to increase in 2030 and 2050.The results from the Denitrification-Decomposition(DNDC)model show that overall rice,corn,wheat,potato,vegetable,and pulses yields decrease in the years 2030 and 2050.The production of agricultural commodities decreases more rapidly in the year 2050,where,rice and potato production decreases intensely by-33%and-35%.There will also be a significant negative impact on overall meat and milk production in Bangladesh due to climate change.Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium(CGE)model and three climate change scenarios,this paper assesses the economy-wide implications of climate change on Bangladesh’s economy and agriculture.It is clear from the examination of the computable general equilibrium model that the impacts of climate change on agricultural sectors were felt more sharply,reducing average output by-8.49%and-10.39%,respectively,and increasing imports by 10.01%and 12.21%,compared to the baseline in 2030 and 2050.The findings reveal that,relative to baseline,agricultural output will decline significantly by a range of-13.95%to-20.05%under the high climate scenario(higher temperatures and lower yields).A decrease in agricultural output results in declines in agricultural labor and household income.Household income falls in all categories,although it drops the most in landless and urban less educated households,with a range of-10.88%to-15.49%and-10.77%to-15.45%.Hence,consumption of commodities will fall by-7.13%to-9.83%and-6.82%to-10.02%,according to the findings.On the other hand,climate change had a notable impact on gross domestic product(GDP),reducing it by-5.05%and-9.56%in 2030 and2050,respectively.As agricultural output,household consumption,and income decline thus,it will impact the majority of the population’s health in Bangladesh by increasing malnutrition,hidden hunger,poverty,changing food environment,changing physical and mental health status,and a changing healthcare environment.Therefore,population health and food security will be a top socioeconomic and political concern for Bangladesh’s government.The novelty of this study is to develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium(CGE)model to evaluate how climate change may influence Bangladesh’s economy and agriculture by and large.In the end,evidence generated here can provide policy-makers with crucial information and guide government policies to ensure economic growth contributes to meeting national development and food security targets.Besides,it is also necessary to put more emphasis on climate change issues and address potential risks in the following years. |
