| As driven by consumption demand,forming physical-virtual water coupling flows of regional food production and consumption,20%-25% of water consumed by global crop production form the inter-regional virtual water flows.Against the backdrop of intensified human activities and changing environments,China’s food production and consumption are facing long-term pressures and short-term shocks such as physical water shortages and irrational virtual water flow patterns.Therefore,the resilience evaluation of the key processes of physical-virtual water coupling flows related to regional food production and consumption has important practical significance for clarifying the response of regional agricultural water resources systems to shocks and pressures,as well as ensuring the sustainable use of regional water resources and food security.This study focuses on the two key processes of crop related physical water consumption and virtual water flow,and constructs a general evaluation framework for physical water resilience and a dynamic evaluation method for virtual water flow network resilience from multiple dimensions of resilience;Applying the research cases of major staple crops(rice,wheat and maize)in 31 provinces(cities and districts)of mainland China,the spatialtemporal evolution characteristics of physical water consumption resilience of crop production at the provincial level and the dynamic changes of crop-related virtual water flow resilience between provinces were quantitatively evaluated;Based on the evaluation results,strategies and suggestions for improving the resilience of physical water resources of crop production and crop virtual water flow network were proposed.The main results achieved are as follows:(1)A general resilience assessment framework for water resource consumption in crop production entities and a dynamic assessment method for resilience of crop virtual water flow networks were constructed.Combining the scientific connotation and multidimensional attribute characteristics of social ecological resilience,a general assessment framework for crop production blue water and green water resilience based on multiple indicators was constructed from four universal dimensions of resilience: resistance,absorption,adaptation,and transformation;Based on complex network theory and simulation analysis,a measurement method for characterizing the dynamic changes in resilience of crop virtual water flow networks was constructed by comparing the topological structure changes of the networks under intentional and random attack node failure scenarios.(2)The key indicators of the resilience assessment of the key processes of physical and virtual water for the production and consumption of major food crops —— crop water footprint and virtual water flow — — at the provincial level in mainland China were quantified,and the main socio-economic drivers were analyzed.The blue water footprint of unit mass of rice,wheat and maize in mainland China decreased by 12.4%,35.4% and 45.3%,respectively over 2000-2017.However,the total water footprint of the three crops increased by 27.8% as the expansion of planting area,of which maize increased by 81.4%.In 2017,the crop-related virtual water flow accounted for 40.2% of the water footprint of crop production.The driving force results show that agricultural infrastructure is an important but neglected important influencing factor of regional food production and consumption water footprint and virtual water,and its effect intensity exceeds the traditional main driving factors such as per capita GDP and agricultural water intensity.(3)The temporal and spatial dynamic evolution characteristics of water consumption resilience of major crop production entities in mainland China were evaluated.In 2017,China’s crop production water resource resilience was generally at a level of lower than medium(1-2 points)or below;The overall green water resilience of crop production has a high “basic value”,while the blue water resilience has a more “growth”;The resilience of regional water resources performs better in terms of adaptability and transformation ability than in terms of resistance and absorption ability;The water resource resilience of China’s crop production can vary by up to 2.4 times among different provinces.(4)The dynamic characteristics of the resilience of China’s inter provincial crop virtual water flow network were revealed.The resilience of virtual water and crop flow networks for rice and maize in 2017 was 6.9% to 30% higher than in 2000;Intentionally attacking less than the top 20% of important provinces can reduce the cumulative resilience of the wheat blue water virtual water flow network by more than 80%,and these provinces are facing varying degrees of blue water resource shortage risks.(5)The targeted strategies for improving the physical water resource consumption and the resilience of the virtual water flow network for crop production in China were initially proposed.Including total amount control,improving blue water utilization efficiency,and cultivating drought resistant varieties to increase the blue water resilience of crop production;Establishing more sustainable farming systems and enhancing adaptability to climate change to promote the green water resilience of regional food production;Increasing connectivity and early warning systems for provinces with significant but water scarcity risks to enhance the resilience of China’s crop virtual water flow network.In conclusion,the general assessment framework for water resource consumption resilience of regional crop production entities and the crop virtual water flow network resilience assessment method constructed in this study can provide methodological references for the assessment of water virtual water flow critical processes resilience of regional crop production and consumption entities,and the results of case studies in China can provide data support for deepening research on agricultural water resource resilience and formulating regional water security policies in China. |
